Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SIQ - Smartgroup Corporation

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Since the last posting, the stock had been going sideways, but the past week as seen the price break higher with today's close being nearly 30% higher than this time last week.
 
Ended up buying a small parcel and today got a share offer in mail. Haven't had time to study yet.
Any views to share?
 
Muschu said:
Ended up buying a small parcel and today got a share offer in mail. Haven't had time to study yet.
Any views to share?
Click to expand...

Hope you're still holding Muschu. Cracker of a trend on this one. Pushing all time highs again.

Monthly chart posted. Short interest is <1%, recent dips seem to be well supported. Recent capital raising seems to have been taken favourably.

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/03/15/smartgroup-on-the-road-to-acquisition/

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180221/pdf/43rsjc75nrl1hg.pdf

SIQ.png
 
I have to confess that Smart Group is really smart.
SIQ has a piece of big news coming for sure when a director sells 1,1 million shares. Of course to meet some emergency financial needs and tax obligations and still has 2.95 million shares. I will not question what strategic moves Mr Billimoria has to reduce stake by about 25 %?

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190402/pdf/44400mkhw1xyfp.pdf

as published today on ASX.

Of course, SOL had no calculation when they also reduced their holding a few days back

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190319/pdf/443mbw7v1m0cn8.pdf
Disclosure - DNH any more.
 
Down 15% after today's ASX announcement attached
18/11/2019 8:20:06 AM Change of CEO and Earnings Update

No doubt the loss of the CEO!

“Under Deven’s leadership, Smartgroup has evolved from a start-up into a successful and respected ASX-200 company with an experienced management team administering approximately 350,000 salary packages and more than 66,000 novated leases under management.

Smartgroup announced that its managing director and chief executive officer, Deven Billimoria, intends to retire from the role.

Mr Billimoria will leave the company at the end of February 2020 after the release of its FY 2019 full year results. The chief executive has been with Smartgroup for over 19 years and in the top job since 2002.

upload_2019-11-18_11-27-1.png


upload_2019-11-18_11-18-56.png


don't hold

84
 

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Last edited:
Interesting. Price jumped higher after SIG reported a 5% increase in profits (Aug19). Price now falls heavily after long term CEO resigns. Profit guidance for full year remains the same. Is there a reasonable reversal opportunity here?

siq1811.PNG
 
Looks like Smartgroup Corporation is about to be taken over by TPG Global, LLC and Potential Capital at $10.35 per share. No opinion about the deal as I'm not too familiar with SIQ so will leave any comments to others.

SIQ290921.png
 
greggles said:
Looks like Smartgroup Corporation is about to be taken over by TPG Global, LLC and Potential Capital at $10.35 per share. No opinion about the deal as I'm not too familiar with SIQ so will leave any comments to others.
Click to expand...
I own these and on a number of occasions I have considered selling (fortunately I didn't) because I was questioning whether it is worth the price even before the offer. The fact that the current price is about 13% below the offer price indicates the market is not confident the deal will occur, and most certainly is of the view that there will not be a better offer to follow.
 
If @ROE still read this forum, if someone did a MMS vs SIQ, why would SIQ be a better buy six years ago. If I had money back then, maybe I would have own both of them. Instead I own MMS and I couldn’t tell you why I own McMillan Shakespeare MMS. I was lucky that I sold MMS at profit.
 
Country Lad said:
I own these and on a number of occasions I have considered selling (fortunately I didn't) because I was questioning whether it is worth the price even before the offer. The fact that the current price is about 13% below the offer price indicates the market is not confident the deal will occur, and most certainly is of the view that there will not be a better offer to follow.
Click to expand...
Or could it be that the announcement was made on a day when all markets including ours was having a big sell off and bidders weren't keen to push the price right up to the Scheme proposal price...

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Country Lad said:
I own these and on a number of occasions I have considered selling (fortunately I didn't) because I was questioning whether it is worth the price even before the offer. The fact that the current price is about 13% below the offer price indicates the market is not confident the deal will occur, and most certainly is of the view that there will not be a better offer to follow.
Click to expand...
The way the price was slowly receding and the fact that TPG has a history of fishing and then pulling out or reducing the offer, I became more and more sceptical. Fortunately, I sold on the 14th at $9.46. Not as good as straight after the offer, but as expected TPG pulled out of the original proposal today and made a lower offer.

Note to self, if TPG involved in an offer, sell.
 
Country Lad said:
The way the price was slowly receding and the fact that TPG has a history of fishing and then pulling out or reducing the offer, I became more and more sceptical. Fortunately, I sold on the 14th at $9.46. Not as good as straight after the offer, but as expected TPG pulled out of the original proposal today and made a lower offer.

Note to self, if TPG involved in an offer, sell.
Click to expand...
Well done Country Lad, certainly nice to sell out near the top.

Would have been even better of you to have shared the TPG Global sneaky business with fellow ASF members who are shareholders who might feel a little SIQ after seeing this...

1635139446709.png


Oh well, let's keep TPG hot offers in the shifty basket from now on...
 
aus_trader said:
Well done Country Lad, certainly nice to sell out near the top.

Would have been even better of you to have shared the TPG Global sneaky business with fellow ASF members who are shareholders who might feel a little SIQ after seeing this...
Click to expand...

I am sure most of the shareholders would have been aware of it and it was also the subject of a Livewire article which appeared in the Iress list of SIQ market announcements. The fact that I have a personal dislike of TPG doesn't mean I should try to influence others who may have had the same view as Montgomery in the Livewire article and wanted to hang on. Also, the fact that Aware Super was involved should have given it a greater chance of success. My reason for selling was a personal assessment of the risk.

Smartgroup Corporation (ASX: SIQ)​

James Marlay: Staying with you, Simon. Smartgroup - the yield was looking a lot more attractive at the beginning of September. It's subsequently received a bid and the share price has jumped nearly $2. Are you a buy, hold or sell on Smartgroup?

Simon Conn (SELL): Controversially, I am a seller of this business because we have seen TPG and many other private equity firms approach companies and then not proceed with the bids. So this is an approach by TPG. It's conditional and non-binding. And so I think there are questions around whether they execute that. And look, we own SG Fleet (ASX: SGF) in the fleet leasing market. It's trading on 15 times and has a 4.5% yield. We much prefer that business - it's better value and I think really well-positioned going forward with its technology platform that they are putting in place to improve their service offering for their customers.

James: Roger, Smartgroup. Is it a buy, hold or sell for you?

Roger Montgomery (BUY): I am going to stick my neck on the block and go the opposite way to Simon. I think it's a buy. It is under takeover as Simon mentioned. I am always interested in what we call post-announcement arbitrage opportunities. And there is still a 12% gap here. I actually think this deal proceeds. In fact, I think the strength of the initial bid, being granted exclusivity, and Aware Super indicating that they will participate in the proposal as an equity co-investor shows the intent to complete. But that's just my view. The discount exists because a few deals have recently fallen over, as Simon mentioned. I think this is a simpler business, it's got a cleaner balance sheet. There is always a risk that a deal as highly conditional as this one doesn't complete, but I back this one going through, so it's a buy.
 
Up until around 6 ? years ago or so, I and wife were customers of TPG for mobile phone and internet.
At the time, they were using Optus as their carrier.
With little notice, they changed carriers and used Vodafone instead.
Service became woeful in our area and in general also elsewhere that you would expect reasonable service...
Our mobile phones were confirmed to be fine to work on Optus bands not Vodafone.

Good way to lose customers TPG....
 

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