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Snake think you are stalking me!Must be my pommie blood that you can taste!And just for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simple Trading Systems
- Thread starter ARTHUR.S
- Start date
Do humans outperfrm any computer model on the market?
Check out this article regards human decision making vs statistical models.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_print.aspx
Check out this article regards human decision making vs statistical models.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_print.aspx
MichaelD
Not fooled by randomness
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An excellent read and certainly one well in line with my market experiences to date (I no longer try to "outsmart" my system, just follow it).neo said:
To me, the key phrase in this article was "We all think that we know better than simple models."
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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The dilema of the discretionary trader regardless of method of buy selection is seen in the last "Why not Quant" summation.
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alankew said:
That`s funny. I shall ignore you from hereon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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tech/a said:
Humans trade better then programs.
that fact was in Wizzards of the Market my friend
that is a great book to read!
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tech/a said:
Tech/a
I am not trying to attack you please dont think that, I just think some people dont spend the time and do the hard work to make them self a winner they look for a magic bullet that does not exsist!
I have no probs with trading programs!
peace
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I think Ducati would have an interesting opinion on this issue.
Personally i'm just testing this theory in my own trading. There are several issues at play within the "quant" theory itself; how well the system is designed, size of test base, back/forward testing issues, curve fitting etc.
Curve fitting is my worst fear ATM. That is why my system is really quite basic (not to code to Amibroker; unless youre Kaveman). My assumption being that I can outperform said system by using such things as eyeball scans for trends on multiple timeframes, support/resistance levels and confluence of the two and other logical phenomena. Whether or not this assuption is correct or not is at the heart of this issue; does my system provide a base or a ceiling.....
Personally i'm just testing this theory in my own trading. There are several issues at play within the "quant" theory itself; how well the system is designed, size of test base, back/forward testing issues, curve fitting etc.
Curve fitting is my worst fear ATM. That is why my system is really quite basic (not to code to Amibroker; unless youre Kaveman
). My assumption being that I can outperform said system by using such things as eyeball scans for trends on multiple timeframes, support/resistance levels and confluence of the two and other logical phenomena. Whether or not this assuption is correct or not is at the heart of this issue; does my system provide a base or a ceiling.....
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Mr_Liquidity said:
Here I agree with you.
If traders dont spend the time doing "The Hard Work" then they will have no idea where to start in their quest to design a system much less be able to design one which is consistantly profitable.
Trading programes such as Metastock or Bullcharts or amibroker are mostly under utilized.
Trading systems are ofcourse developed with the help of good trading programs.
The program itself is little more than a technical analysis tool and is way way short of a trading Methodology.
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Mr_Liquidity said:
Hi Mr Liquidity
I haven't read Market Wizards but I have read New Market Wizards many times and I noticed that every one of them was a systems trader and had nearly all paid the price for disobedience.
However, nowhere did I make the observation that humans trade better than programs. But I did make the observation that humans traded with consistent profitably when programmed to a system that suited their personality.
I guess thats the same as saying 'trade like a robot' or 'get yourself out of the way' or even, 'its not about you' just trade the system.
Cheers
Happytrader
You seem to be right. I have found that to be the case on most occasions. I have checked on the past performances of a few stocks and most seem to follow that trend. Relate the graph to announcements then be allerted to future aqnnouncements for the next hint.bunyip said:
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It's been a while since anyone commented on this topic and I was conducting some research into Aussie Robs Lifestyle Trader, program, system, software.
Only today I saw a national advert for Lifestyle Trader, but did not see any web address mentioned in the add, hence I consulted google like all the other googlians
If anyone has a better link to this program on the forum please paste the link.
I am not a seller of anything and trade my own trading systems.
After some analysis from YouTube videos and additional information I discovered
what you get with the helfty price tag of $15000 + $200 data feed per month & software is the Heiken Ashi indicator signals LoL. The bars or candles are not displayed just the averages for this indicator. Anyhow, anyone wishing to save a lot of money can just sign up for a demo account with a broker of their choosing that has Metatrader and do the same thing for absolutely no cost whatsoever
Cheerio!
Only today I saw a national advert for Lifestyle Trader, but did not see any web address mentioned in the add, hence I consulted google like all the other googlians
If anyone has a better link to this program on the forum please paste the link.
I am not a seller of anything and trade my own trading systems.
After some analysis from YouTube videos and additional information I discovered
what you get with the helfty price tag of $15000 + $200 data feed per month & software is the Heiken Ashi indicator signals LoL. The bars or candles are not displayed just the averages for this indicator. Anyhow, anyone wishing to save a lot of money can just sign up for a demo account with a broker of their choosing that has Metatrader and do the same thing for absolutely no cost whatsoever
Cheerio!
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Any examples of a simple trading system?
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Yes, did I mention Heiken Ashi?
That is a simple trading system.
Consult Google for more info
That is a simple trading system.
Consult Google for more info
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Heiken Ashi is an indicator, not a trading system !
A trading system is a method involving the entry, stops, profit targets and exits, and that is an oversimplification.
A trading system may involve the use of indicators.
I think we would all like a simple trading system that was CONSISTANT and EASY to trade ?.
Unfortunately there’s not many if any around, ive traded simple systems for a number of years and believe me drawdown’s are often deep and you go extended periods going nowhere, like any form of trading its not as easy as the glossy brochures and spruikers would have you believe, I actually posted live on the Chartist website for 12 months with 1 system, the year I did it it did very well, currently though its pretty average and has been for a while, from speaking with a broker last week it sounds like things right know for system traders in general are pretty tough or in fact as tough as they have ever been, a lot of things that have worked for years that system traders have used have just stopped.
Nothing lasts for ever maybe, so you need to be aware that this can occur, some traders plot equity and therefore have an on/off switch others use other methods to stop or start
Unfortunately there’s not many if any around, ive traded simple systems for a number of years and believe me drawdown’s are often deep and you go extended periods going nowhere, like any form of trading its not as easy as the glossy brochures and spruikers would have you believe, I actually posted live on the Chartist website for 12 months with 1 system, the year I did it it did very well, currently though its pretty average and has been for a while, from speaking with a broker last week it sounds like things right know for system traders in general are pretty tough or in fact as tough as they have ever been, a lot of things that have worked for years that system traders have used have just stopped.
Nothing lasts for ever maybe, so you need to be aware that this can occur, some traders plot equity and therefore have an on/off switch others use other methods to stop or start
Reading allot of literature, I have come to the conclusion that unless you have great resources at your disposal, to build a profitable system for yourself you dont want to make it too complicated.
The system I have developed for myself comprises of 2 long term trade filters based on sector trend and market trend, 2 buy signal rules, 3 money management rules and one sell signal rule.
Its pretty simple but it did take allot of time learning, and then time working, to develop it. But when I orignally started manually testing my original idea it showed great results, and thats a good sign that you have something workable.
The next thing you have to do is try to "disprove" your system. Test it in every kind of market and in lots of different types of instruments.
I believe that if you are well educated about markets, watch allot of price action habitually and you're nerdy enough to enjoy spending weeks testing statistical ideas then you can come up with something simple that takes money out of the market.
Also: Trend trading is nowhere near as effective as it was, and most simple systems are trend following systems. Perhaps try other types of system ideas?
The system I have developed for myself comprises of 2 long term trade filters based on sector trend and market trend, 2 buy signal rules, 3 money management rules and one sell signal rule.
Its pretty simple but it did take allot of time learning, and then time working, to develop it. But when I orignally started manually testing my original idea it showed great results, and thats a good sign that you have something workable.
The next thing you have to do is try to "disprove" your system. Test it in every kind of market and in lots of different types of instruments.
I believe that if you are well educated about markets, watch allot of price action habitually and you're nerdy enough to enjoy spending weeks testing statistical ideas then you can come up with something simple that takes money out of the market.
Also: Trend trading is nowhere near as effective as it was, and most simple systems are trend following systems. Perhaps try other types of system ideas?
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Yes I agree with this. I have a few systems that I track for interest (not trade) and have had to re-optimize things to keep them 'profitable' into this year. When I re-optimize I try to look at the All Ords, general sentiment in the media (tv newspapers not online), and see when things changed, then re-optimize from that date. Another way to do this is to run a low lag MA through your equity curve, which has been discussed alot on this forum. I decided that the last 2 months have been quite different to the previous 2 years (approx). Many more people are trading nowadays - a bit like footy betting it's getting a lot more interest and I think instos are lowering their allowable entry criteria (price and volume) to match. Bots are appearing in penny stocks that I wouldn't have believed only a year ago.
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...meant to say: I've heard bots can seek out chart patterns and make a stock break out then fail, casuing short term traders who have bought the breakout to dump their stock. Dump it into the waiting insto buyers, who have a longer time frame. The other thing they can do is stop a stock from breaking out (one that would have done so under normal conditions). Some of the CFD providers have some very nifty pattern finders that are way ahead of what you can get on AB for example.
I think one trick is to learn how to read bots and maybe try to adopt the same sort of time frame that they use. Bots aim to kill short term traders.
In years ahead I suspect we will see stocks trade greater ranges with candle wicks at both ends, similar to the US.
I think one trick is to learn how to read bots and maybe try to adopt the same sort of time frame that they use. Bots aim to kill short term traders.
In years ahead I suspect we will see stocks trade greater ranges with candle wicks at both ends, similar to the US.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Yeah it's a stupid game they play. Buying $20 - $50 lots spaced 1 or 2 minutes apart while several thousand dollar lots are being bought around them is very stupid. It would take a long time to accumulate an average holding at that rate while the price has moved usually down for the bots I have seen buying.
