Simple profitable strategy with 3 indicators: +11% profit on Gold 29-31 October

erik59 · 27 March 2015

lindsayf said:
This threadIt gives the reader NO information about edge or expectancy as all the trades are just cherry picked in retrospect.
What about the trades in between those shown.
What does the real equity curve look like?

This is not a journal, just sharing here a simple strategy based on Bill Williams work, for equity curves go back please to BW success story.
Cherry pick, no, learn the indicators, their role, and to spot setups,

Its easy to critic, many people just want smtg magic so they dont need to learn, signals in real time etc...

Sorry it does not work like this

erik59 · 27 March 2015

Hello

Trade of the Week: USD/CHF H1: 10-12 March +8.5% Profit (+337 pips)

This is a great campaign on USD/CHF, on the 18th (FOMC report day) at Francfort open, I have a tight fractal box and the ewave is about to cross the zero line, this is a H1 setup. I check on H4, the ewave is also on the way to cross the zero line (and H1 pending order is below the H4 red line, price has some space to move to reach the H4 limit as well), therefore this is a double H1/H4 cross of the zero line! I take the H1 break, the price drops slowly forming a new sell fractal, I take a second entry below that fractal (this is also a double break H1/H4) with a stop loss above the red line at 45 pips as we are in an investing mode, the price drops. Before the FOMC report (like NOFP news), my strategy is to sell half of my position to reduce the risk, then the news came and go in my way, cool. I exit above that huge BDC for a total profit of +8.5% (+5.5% and +3%) and +337 pips (+187 and +150).
N.B. I could have taken my profit (or half of them) when the prices has reached the D1 red line.D1 alligator lines are excellent SL and TP.

Video of the Trade:

Cheers

minwa · 29 March 2015

erik59 said:
for equity curves go back please to BW success story.

OK I am going to sell a service/run a fund. I use Buffet's method. Please check how Buffet has performed to see what your equity curve will be like when you invest with me.

erik59 said:
for equity curves go back please to BW success story.
Cherry pick, no,

Cherry pick. yes. You even titled it "trade of the week". Put ALL your trades generated by your signal every week then no one will call it cherry pick. Use Myfxbook or similar, its free and no one will argue you faked it.

erik59 said:
learn the indicators

Learning lagging indicators without the underlying price context is useless. When words are used like "amazing strategy" "xx pips gained" "xx% gained" with absolutely no mention of risk taken to achieve it really shows.

tech/a · 30 March 2015

Agree 100% Minwa

This will only fool those it's designed to fool.
Newbies.

You'll also note that he picks his buy and sell
At the top of entry and exit bars.
Can't be done in realtime you heed a bar to close to be sure a signal has been triggered

A common newbie error.

Post in realtime not a week later

erik59 · 4 April 2015

tech/a said:
Agree 100% Minwa

This will only fool those it's designed to fool.
Newbies.

You'll also note that he picks his buy and sell
At the top of entry and exit bars.
Can't be done in realtime you heed a bar to close to be sure a signal has been triggered

A common newbie error.

Post in realtime not a week later

1 °You guys want someone to call you live the trades, i do this in the chatroom not here,

2 ° "Can't be done in realtime you heed a bar to close to be sure a signal has been triggered" no i have a pending order when its triggered, its triggered

3 ° When i found the chaos trading, i first read all the threads and posts about it, i did not care about if it was live or not, a past trade or not, I wanted to learn, what is the setup, how the indicators mean, what is the global philosophy etc... On his videos, Bill Williams and his daughter Justine explained trades took in the past, right? but trades they took, so you can say aalso, yes this is cherry picking,

4 ° Peter Crowns posted in some forums his DIBS method, Day Inside Bars Strategy and it had also the same poor comments, it is a successful method and very simple, then he got fed up and left the building

5 ° I wanted to share a good strategy, i will do it only on my blog (where you can see also my losing trades btw) , people dont want to learn, are critical and bitter

happy trading and so long!

tech/a · 4 April 2015

You get you confirmation bar ----- you post the trade.

I do it
Why can't you?

minwa · 4 April 2015

erik59 said:
5 ° I wanted to share a good strategy, i will do it only on my blog (where you can see also my losing trades btw) , people dont want to learn, are critical and bitter

I looked through Jan, Feb, Mar. There are no losing trades on your blog (which contains at least 5 third party advertisement).

And yes, people do NOT want to learn some "amazing" combination of indicators with absolutely no mention of risk & money management.

Oh and theres a chatroom ? Where do I put my credit card details ?

AverageJoe · 20 June 2015

I must look up them indicators! Is that a demo trading account?

sinner · 23 June 2015

I looked through Jan, Feb, Mar. There are no losing trades on your blog (which contains at least 5 third party advertisement).

As he said, the blog is just posts of his "trade of the week" not every trade.

There is nothing magic about the Profitunity indicators, and in fact Bill Williams has largely moved on to different techniques. That is not to say the indicators can't be used in technical trading though.

* Awesome Oscillator: It's simply a 5,35 oscillator of the median price.

Code:

MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH+LOW)/2 
AO = SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 5)-SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 34)

* Fractals: It's simply a 5 day high, i.e. a higher daily high with two lower highs on each side.

Code:

Fractal Technical Indicator it is a series of at least five successive bars, with the highest HIGH in the middle, and two lower HIGHs on both sides. The reversing set is a series of at least five successive bars, with the lowest LOW in the middle, and two higher LOWs on both sides, which correlates to the sell fractal.

* Alligator Oscillator: It's simply a measure of trend volatility (like ADX, TSI, etc) based on the BW forward shifted MAs.

Code:

    The blue line (Alligator’s Jaw) is the Balance Line for the timeframe that was used to build the chart (13-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved into the future by 8 bars);

    The red line (Alligator’s Teeth) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe of one level lower (8-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 5 bars into the future);

    The green line (Alligator’s Lips) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe, one more level lower (5-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 3 bars into the future).

From this you can see erik is implementing a moderately sane strategy (basically, trying to catch the first breakout in a trend where that trend is supported by a higher timeframe trend):

Entry:
We take the break out of a fractal box when alligator is sleeping or starting to opening.
SL is at the other side of the fractal box (box must be tight, i e inf to 40 pips por H1) in order to spot 1-2 (Wave 1 followed by Wave 2 - ref: Elliott Waves)
AO must be close to the Zero Line.
Entry must be as 4X higher TM has an alligator open (trendy)

Exit:
If price goes vs us, exit just above the candle who triggered the order or if the setup looks good, other side of the fractal box
If price goes with us, we use the lines of the alligator (green if there is divergence between price and AO, red if there is not) but the best exit is when price breaks the other side of the fractal box)
Of course, exit depends of how the 4X time chart looks like.
I use sometime fibonacci numbers
I tend to bring SL to entry level when price moved +1% and i usually protect 30-45% of my profit when price made>+1% profit.

I used to trade FX using the same indicators and it was one of the first methods I tried that provided me with decent results.

How can you guys expect o build a community on this forum with your attitude.

Trembling Hand · 23 June 2015

sinner said:
How can you guys expect to build a community on this forum with your attitude.

I guess most people have moved on from the idea that a snap shot of anything is useful and want more like what Peter is doing in Pavs old thread, application. I think anyone who has been in the game long enough is sick to death of claims of an edge to be learnt in a threads like "Simple profitable strategy with 3 indicators: +11% profit on Gold 29-31 October"

Maybe unjustly harsh but if it looks like a turd from the outside you expect it to be a turd when you bite into it.

tech/a · 26 June 2015

Trembling Hand said:
Maybe unjustly harsh but if it looks like a turd from the outside you expect it to be a turd when you bite into it.

Great just while I'm having lunch!---chevapchichi's

Simple profitable strategy with 3 indicators: +11% profit on Gold 29-31 October

erik59

erik59

minwa

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

erik59

tech/a

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minwa

AverageJoe

sinner

Trembling Hand

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