Silver price discussion and analysis

Re: SILVER

doogie_goes_off said:

Ral1ty - are you still holding MMN at ~20c ? You said:

"I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers".

Bit scary !!

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Yes doogie i am still holding MMN.

Unfortunately i am sitting on a loss with them but will hold for the long term

Re: SILVER

clowboy said:

Well I rang the perth mint today to get a price on some silver bullion and they have no stock

LOL

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Clowboy .. did they say why?
Darn thats where I was hoping to get some and have it stored

sleepy

Re: SILVER

Nah,

I didn't bother asking I just chuckled. I mean one would assume that they where unable to cater for supply as of late?????

Anyway they said that you could still buy some at current prices and pick it up upon delivery.

If you where going to have it stored there im sure there would not be a problem.

Im going to try again today, let you know how I get on

Re: SILVER

Silver, gold and oil are my most bullish commodities for 2008. Looking to buy some silver if it goes down to US$13.00.

Re: SILVER

The poor man's Gold. As POG marches towards US$ 1000
Lets not forget Silver.
March silver is not to far away from suggesting it is about to make a move to above US $ 18

Re: SILVER

Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame is now bullish on silver.

Thats quite a bullish recommendation from such a respected figure for such a tiny market.

"I Like Silver" by Richard Russell
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell011408.html

Re: SILVER

refined silver said:

Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame is now bullish on silver.

Thats quite a bullish recommendation from such a respected figure for such a tiny market.

"I Like Silver" by Richard Russell
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell011408.html

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It's all in the timing???

Elsewhere, another day and there is no real shock from the news of another new commodity high. Into European trading and silver hit a 27-year high as gold pushed to fresh record highs above USD 900 per troy ounce.

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Re: SILVER

Kauri said:

It's all in the timing???

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Yes, very nice timing in fact. Neglecting the past couple of days which may be just testing the breakout, (if we get back down there), here is a couple of slightly longer term silver charts.

Re: SILVER

This was a post from GATA re the silver ETF (SLV) in the US. ETFs might seem easy but its NOT the same as physical.

-----------------------------------
Possible SLV Inventory Swap Explanation

Hi Bill -
I think the 20,000,000 oz SLV inventory shell game that transpired on 12/31/07 can be easily explained IF we examine who is involved and what their motivation is.

First of all the "Custodian" of SLV is JP Morgan (I could probably stop here for folks at GATA). JP Morgan provides all the info to the iShares Trustee on the silver stored by themselves and the "Sub-Suctodians" for the "Authorized Participants" (note that no SLV share holders own any silver). This silver can be stored anywhere in the world and has only "limited audit" requirements. The silver can also be swapped, pledged, leased and loaned without violating the prospectus. It is more than likely that most of the SLV silver is held in COMEX warehouses. That would give the perception of much more physical silver than is truly available.

It is obvious that the 20M oz deposit and withdrawal was clear maneuver to "paint the tape" on the Year End physical silver held at SLV...but why? Since SLV is only a derivative of the price of silver there would be no reason to bump the amount held for the SEC or other regulators. The prospectus clearly points out that the amount of silver held and the price of silver have no real relevance to each other in SLV. There are no requirements to increase or decrease the amount held in trust...it is a perception issue that enforces the "value" attributed to the shares of SLV.

So who would want (or need) a quarterly or annual official verification of real Physical Silver being held by a party?

Only one group that I can think of....THE CFTC!

The first "pertinent surveillance question" the CFTC must address in their oversight of the silver market is "Are the positions held by the largest long trader(s) greater in size than deliverable supplies not already owned by such trader(s)?" It's their main concern.

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/backgrounder/opasurveill.htm?from=home&page=mktsurveilcontent

"Physical-delivery commodities. Futures contracts that require the delivery of a physical commodity are most susceptible to manipulation when the deliverable supply on such contracts is small relative to the size of positions held by traders, individually or in related groups, as the contract approaches expiration. The more difficult and costly it is to augment deliverable supplies within the time constraints of the expiring futures contract's delivery terms, the more susceptible to manipulation the contract becomes."

Pertinent surveillance questions for such markets include:

Are the positions held by the largest long trader(s) greater in size than deliverable supplies not already owned by such trader(s)?
Are the long traders likely to demand delivery?
Is taking delivery the least costly means of acquiring the commodity?
To what extent are the largest short traders capable of making delivery?
Is making futures delivery a better alternative than selling the commodity in the cash market?
Is the futures price, as the contract approaches expiration, reflecting the cash market value of the deliverable commodity?
Is the price spread between the expiring future and the next delivery month reflective of underlying supply and demand conditions in the cash market?
By adding 20M oz on Dec. 31st JP Morgan and the other "Sub-Custodians" were proving to the CFTC, by way of the SEC end of year filings from SLV, that they had access to 170M oz of physical silver that could be delivered against their net short position on the COMEX if delivery were required. Once the end of year silver amount for SLV was officially recorded the silver was "withdrawn" and apparently put to use somewhere else (delivery, loan, lease, etc.)

The good news is that the fact that this maneuver was needed by the silver manipulators tells me 2 things:

1) The CFTC is finally examining the large traders for rule violations.

2) The fact that silver manipulators only borrowed the silver for a day means they needed that 20M to patch another hole in the dyke.

Anyway you slice it, the unprecedented, decades long silver manipulation is on it's last legs.

The silver ROCKET will truly be a sight to behold!
Bix

Re: SILVER

I think almost time to short silver futures.

Re: SILVER

Silver looks to have started a run up.

Kitco spot price $16.09 up 1.19% ....I know one swallow does not a summer make,but it's a start!

Re: SILVER

BREND said:

I think almost time to short silver futures.

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Why do you think that Brend?

If a statement is to be made should it not be accompanied by your reason. Unqualified statments have no value. The idea of our discussions is to share information from which we may gain understanding from each other. In my humble opinion.

Re: SILVER

Boyou said:

Silver looks to have started a run up.

Kitco spot price $16.09 up 1.19% ....I know one swallow does not a summer make,but it's a start!

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I posted an article on the Gold thread from Ted Butler re this current sell off and he said that it just creates a great buying opportunity.
Hope POG has alsmost finished correcting and POS can move up to US $17
this coming week

Re: SILVER

explod said:

Why do you think that Brend?

If a statement is to be made should it not be accompanied by your reason. Unqualified statments have no value. The idea of our discussions is to share information from which we may gain understanding from each other. In my humble opinion.

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Yes Brend, your post has not only no value, but potentially negative value to the forum. Members are expected to post analysis here on the forum to back up their claims. Future posts such as that will be deleted without notice. Cheereo! kennas

Re: SILVER

Shorting silver even more so than gold, is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, gonna get squashed fingers, win pennies if lucky, but worse, miss out on any serious wins because you had no fundamental clue about one of the biggest bull markets of our lifetimes.

Interesting, BHPs Cannington mine is still closed, cos of 2nd worker death in 13 months. Terrible for the family, and our prayers are with them. They have failed to stop a govt report being released into their safety standards.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23077998-3102,00.html

It is also the biggest silver mine in the world >40m oz per year, Over 8% of world supply. Thats not going to help the price stay low, while it stays shut.

Re: SILVER

refined silver said:

Shorting silver even more so than gold, is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, gonna get squashed fingers, win pennies if lucky, but worse, miss out on any serious wins because you had no fundamental clue about one of the biggest bull markets of our lifetimes.

Interesting, BHPs Cannington mine is still closed, cos of 2nd worker death in 13 months. Terrible for the family, and our prayers are with them. They have failed to stop a govt report being released into their safety standards.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23077998-3102,00.html

It is also the biggest silver mine in the world >40m oz per year, Over 8% of world supply. Thats not going to help the price stay low, while it stays shut.

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Thanks for that feedback RS.

That is very sad for the families as you said but could have some implications for prices, that were looking good anyway, depending on how long the closure is of course.

They are producing a lot of Silver pd, so an extended period of closure, will certainly have a supply effect, at least shortish term.


Cheers

Re: SILVER

kennas said:

Yes Brend, your post has not only no value, but potentially negative value to the forum. Members are expected to post analysis here on the forum to back up their claims. Future posts such as that will be deleted without notice. Cheereo! kennas

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Hey hey, hold your guns! I have been giving geniuine advices all along.

Its a seasonal effect. Precious metals price always come down in end Jan - Feb, because strong demand from year end had started to cool down.

However I do agree that 2008 is the year for precious metals, but you still need to find a good entry level.

Re: SILVER

BREND said:

Hey hey, hold your guns! I have been giving geniuine advices all along.

Its a seasonal effect. Precious metals price always come down in end Jan - Feb, because strong demand from year end had started to cool down.

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"Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.

Re: SILVER

Does anybody know if there is an Aussie ETF for silver?

Cheers


BT

Re: SILVER

refined silver said:

"Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.

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I had shorted Comex Silver at US$15.89.