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Silver price discussion and analysis

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Re: SILVER

mmm, has Silver run a little too hard over the last 2 months:

feb222008_2.gif

If the chart represented another of my stocks (I wish) then I would be seriously considering taking profits.

Kitco go on to add further commetary, http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/feb222008.html

Does this mean silver has topped and this rally-run is over? Not necessarily as we’ve broken major resistance at $17.70 and some overnight and further out contracts touched above $18.00. If silver can fly to $18.50 resistance it would appear the top might be intact. On the other hand, it could sell back to and support at $17.70; the price of former resistance for next mild ABC correction.
Click to expand...
 
Re: SILVER

It's now at $19.29/oz as of typing and still climbing! Very volatile as well since the prices seem to fluctuate alot on my screen right now..ohhh..there's 19.32....****...19.33...hahah

GRRR, bad luck always fall into me. I was looking to add positions and was deciding between gold and silver. Even though I was more bullish in silver, the technical didn't look as good as those in gold. So went for gold instead. And there silver goes to the moon. :D

All indicators show it's well overbrought, but no sign of a top..maybe it will reach the psychological $20 before stopping. Wonder how would it affect its sister gold?
 
Re: SILVER

Temjin said:
It's now at $19.29/oz as of typing and still climbing! Very volatile as well since the prices seem to fluctuate alot on my screen right now..ohhh..there's 19.32....****...19.33...hahah

GRRR, bad luck always fall into me. I was looking to add positions and was deciding between gold and silver. Even though I was more bullish in silver, the technical didn't look as good as those in gold. So went for gold instead. And there silver goes to the moon. :D

All indicators show it's well overbrought, but no sign of a top..maybe it will reach the psychological $20 before stopping. Wonder how would it affect its sister gold?
Click to expand...


True, silver is definitely on a run....who are the key silver players.....MMN moved up today was wondering whether this was worth a look at with holdings in Malachite Resources and Frontier Resources....any opinions out there
 
Re: SILVER

Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.

Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.
 
Re: SILVER

refined silver said:
Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.

Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.
Click to expand...

Hi do you know where to get good up to date history price charts of the commodities you mentioned above?

Thx

MS
 
Re: SILVER

michael_selway said:
Hi do you know where to get good up to date history price charts of the commodities you mentioned above?

Thx

MS
Click to expand...

I'm not trading futures - don't have time. INO have reasonable ones, I think a few threads recently have asked for charts on related commods and a few answers have been given.
 
Re: SILVER

refined silver said:
Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.

Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.
Click to expand...
Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.
 
Re: SILVER

Uncle Festivus said:
Yes, it was just getting too extreme for me, a healthy consolidation required maybe. So far, not much in it, only 100c range or so, support around 1950 holding so far......
Click to expand...

If you did, hope you got in and out quick!!!

Like I said, could be something interesting happening in silver which bamboozle all who rely on TA without FA understanding. (FA means fundamental analysis!)
 
Re: SILVER

Listen up kiddies! Doing the rounds of the local (Sydney) bullion dealers today, getting some goss etc, apparently Perth Mint can't source enough silver to satisfy demand, with a wait of a few weeks at present. Not sure if it's widespread or just limited to Perth Mint bullion bars or coins, but it sounds like a real shortage happening.
Anyone else having trouble buying/sourcing silver?
 
Re: SILVER

Uncle Festivus said:
Listen up kiddies! Doing the rounds of the local (Sydney) bullion dealers today, getting some goss etc, apparently Perth Mint can't source enough silver to satisfy demand, with a wait of a few weeks at present. Not sure if it's widespread or just limited to Perth Mint bullion bars or coins, but it sounds like a real shortage happening.
Anyone else having trouble buying/sourcing silver?
Click to expand...

Well the rise in silver of 90% since last August speaks for itself. I am very pleased to have my blocks salted away.

Could not believe it when my local bullion dealer, last week (you would think they would remain aloof to customers) believes the recent correlation with the historical Dow chart could be close to the mark for gold of between $10,000 and 50,000per oz. If silver goes back to 15 to 1 parity I'll be up there to those Blue Mountains of yours for a drink Uncle. In fact we'll meet at Star City and I'll show you my little charting system for roulette.
 
Re: SILVER

Some alarming statistics on PM shortages projected for the near future.
In the article the author writes about re-cycling Platinum from roadside dust,which has been lost from catalytric converters

Quite a few other PMs mentioned.Anyone heard of Hafnium? Apparently it's use in Computer chips might see it run out by 2017.

http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/027ns_005.htm
 
Re: SILVER

spoke to dealer in Brisbane 2 weeks ago reckoned he was very busy and that a lot of sales coming in since $19 .... I wonder do the dealers hoard at times?

stock was available in all sizes up to 15kg door stop.
I am going to Sydney next week to pick up some that has been in an allocated account, was going to drop in rather than phone ahead, out of curiosity.

Keep the faith

Neil
 
Re: Silver...Maybe the big one?

i rang ainslie bullion in brisbane today, and was told there is no silver till may, hopefully.

silver is a rare commodity. it is a precious metal, and an industrial one. there is less silver in the world than gold. a breakout in the price of silver has always depended on a physical shortage of the metal. today, that is becomming a reality. +61 7 3221 0500 is the ph of ailnslie bullion. ask them for some silver, any silver, any quantity. you cant get it. till may, if they are lucky. (they wont even quote you a price!!!!!) DYOR....


below is an article by ted butler, which he posted on silver-investor today.

TED BUTLER

March 24, 2008


Almost all of my articles over the past several months have cautioned about the possibility of a sharp sell-off, due to the historically large concentrated net short position of the largest traders in COMEX silver and gold futures. I wasn’t sure we would get a sharp sell-off or when it might come, but if we did get one, I was certain as to its cause. The 48-hour, $4 silver sell-off and $100 gold sell-off occurred for one reason and one reason only - the big shorts yanked the rug out from under the tech fund longs. Again.

Just for the benefit of newer readers (as longtime readers already know this), the tech funds are large pools of investment money that buy and sell futures contracts on every commodity based solely upon price, or technical, signals. They buy on the way up and sell on the way down, as moving averages are penetrated in either direction. They have no interest in the commodity itself, nor its value or supply/demand fundamentals, just the price action. In other words, the tech funds buy and sell many tens of millions of ounces of silver, for example, with no concern about the metal itself. All the tech funds care about is price movement and trying to capture as much of a price trend as they can. (I am not offering a value judgment of their behavior, just an explanation).

The dealers, or large commercial traders (mostly big banks), also know how the tech funds operate and always take the opposite side of whatever the tech funds buy or sell as counterparties. In my opinion, the dealers rig the market by colluding with one another against the tech funds. They do this by withholding their collective bids and offers at opportune times, namely, when they know the tech funds are about to react to a major moving average price signal. This is precisely what occurred in the 48-hour price massacre in gold and silver.

This collusion among the dealers against the tech funds is as illegal as the day is long. It has the effect of setting the price of silver (and other commodities) without regard to real world fundamentals. This is why I have petitioned the CFTC and the exchange regulators for almost 25 years. But I’ll save that story for another day. Today there are more pressing issues.

The sharp sell-off has resulted, in my opinion, in the cleansing out, or removal, of most, if not all, of the technical fund leveraged long positions in silver and gold. I think the amounts come to 20,000 contracts (100 million ounces in silver), and 75,000 contracts in gold COMEX futures (7.5 million ounces). This is my analysis, but we will have to wait until this week’s COT Report is issued to verify the actual figures.

The important thing is that, if the tech funds have, in fact, been largely liquidated by the dealers, then the reason for a potential sharp sell-off has also been eliminated. If one were cautious about being fully-invested in silver because of the possibility of a sharp tech fund sell-off, there is little reason to maintain such caution. Certainly, if anyone held off buying silver because of anything I had written about a potential sell-off, he or she should hold off no longer. Lower prices from here are not to be feared, as they will only strengthen the bullish case.

In truth, it was somewhat easier to analyze the COTs years ago, as the buying point set-ups took weeks, if not months, to develop. This permitted an analyst the luxury of time in deciphering the state of the market. But 24-hour electronic trading on the COMEX has changed all that. Since there has there been no change in the COMEX’s dominance on the day to day pricing of silver and gold, the round the clock trading capability has drastically shortened the time necessary for the dealers to ambush the tech funds. Never have they done it in as short a time span as what they just completed.

But it is not just the suspected clean-out of the tech funds that suggests to me that caution about buying silver should now be tossed to wind. There are other issues that are hard to ignore. I get the strong sense that everything may be falling into place for the real upside explosion in silver. In fact, I think the clean-out of the tech funds, which was compressed into such a short time frame, is directly related to those other issues. It’s why the sell-off took place.

One of my long-term tenets was that there would be an inevitable shortage of silver at some point. I know that sounded preposterous to many at the time I made such statements. Further, since the big dealer shorts were very much involved in the day to day world distribution and supply business, they would necessarily have some advance inkling of when the silver shortage would commence. I then asked myself what I would do, if I were them, when I got the signal that the shortage had arrived?

The only plausible answer was that, in that event, they would position themselves in the most effective and efficient way as possible for the certain coming price rise. That would mean one thing - orchestrating a large price decline on the COMEX. That would generate as much tech fund selling as possible, and enable the dealers to buy back as many contracts as they could and covers as much of their short position as possible. I think that is what has just occurred.

As I have written recently, there are unusual patterns that strongly suggest that the silver shortage may be at hand. The delays of silver deliveries into the big silver ETF, SLV and the inability of the US Mint to keep up the sudden and persistent demand for Silver Eagles are two important and visible clues. Currently, there are many reports of widespread tightness in many wholesale and retail silver outfits.

The investment rush for many forms of retail silver and the subsequent depletion of local dealer inventory comes as a result of the initial unprecedented demand for Silver Eagles. The unexpected demand for Silver Eagles, starting in November. It kicked off a rush to buy other retail forms of investment silver, such as rounds, small bars and bags of U.S. silver coins.

Since the Mint could not supply sufficient quantities of Silver Eagles to the investing public, many eager buyers took what forms of silver were available, rather than wait for new Eagles to be produced and delivered later. There should be no doubt that my good friend and mentor, Izzy, kicked off the whole shebang with his article extolling people to buy Silver Eagles. (A new article by him appears at the end of this piece).

What does a shortage in silver mean? In a word, everything. If the initial clues of a silver shortage get transformed to the industrial silver users and large investors, in terms of increased physical demand for 1000-ounce bars, the industry standard, then say good-bye (and good-riddance) to the silver manipulation. The big dealers can sell unlimited quantities of manipulative paper silver contracts created from thin air, but they can’t sell real 1000 oz bars unless they have them. If they don’t have the real goods and there is a surge in demand for real bars, the jig is up. That’s why I encourage you to insist on securing the serial numbers of every 1000 oz bar held in storage for you

The fact that there is unprecedented demand for silver at precisely the same time as a sharp and sudden sell-off in the price, should confirm to even the most obstinate skeptic the existence of a silver manipulation. So clear is this evidence of manipulation, that there is no longer any credible public denial of it. Now only the CFTC and the NYMEX contest its existence, as they must at all costs.

Finally, an often repeated message for gold-only investors. If you own no (or little) silver, and have insufficient capital with which to invest in silver currently, please switch some gold into silver. You must clearly see the evidence of a growing silver shortage. The clues and reports of shortage are, most emphatically, silver specific. There is no such shortage in gold, nor will there ever be, in my opinion. That’s because gold is not industrially consumed to the extent of silver. That does not mean gold can’t soar in price. In fact, I hope it does, as it will underscore the value of silver. But your common sense should tell you that a precious metal in shortage must climb more sharply in relative value, compared to a precious metal not in a shortage, especially when the shortage-prone metal is so undervalued to begin with.

No one reading these words has any hands-on experience in dealing with a potential shortage of silver. That’s because the world has never experienced a shortage of silver. There is nothing in the specific history of silver to guide us to expected price behavior in a shortage. The closest examples we can draw upon involves the price action of essential commodities that are rationed by natural disasters, like ice or gasoline when a hurricane knocks out power for a week or two. With such a potential silver shortage possibly at hand, coupled with the recent intentional sell-off on the COMEX, it is time to be all in.

to continue, click on link
http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary03-24-08.html
 

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