Silver price discussion and analysis

[moXJO]

Watch silver double top and head back to $25 after you lot got my hopes up.
Happens every decade.

 

[Sean K]

Watch silver double top and head back to $25 after you lot got my hopes up.
Happens every decade.

Double top at $50?



The lack of attention is nothing new for silver. Often referred to as “poor man’s gold”, it traditionally trades at a lower price despite offering similar diversification and safe haven benefits. Even so, silver typically mimics big swings in the gold price, with the moves often amplified because of its smaller market size, which makes it prone to heightened volatility.

But that trend has not played out since gold kicked off its historic bull run in 2022. Unusually, silver has underperformed since then despite a rising gold price environment.

Commodity strategists attribute the anomaly to a changing geopolitical landscape over the past three years when central banks stepped up their gold purchases to record levels to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

While that key source of demand has been absent in silver markets, ANZ said the grey metal will start to play catch up as investors hunt for cheaper haven alternatives to the lofty prices of gold.

“We think that silver presents an opportunity for investors who missed the gold price rally and who want to leverage rising gold prices,” said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. “Its relative undervaluation compared to gold will likely attract investor interest.”

The physical market is also facing stress from US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war given the US imports 70 per cent of its silver from Canada and Mexico – two key targets of his aggressive tariffs.

 

[Sdajii]

Double top at $50?

View attachment 195786

The lack of attention is nothing new for silver. Often referred to as “poor man’s gold”, it traditionally trades at a lower price despite offering similar diversification and safe haven benefits. Even so, silver typically mimics big swings in the gold price, with the moves often amplified because of its smaller market size, which makes it prone to heightened volatility.

But that trend has not played out since gold kicked off its historic bull run in 2022. Unusually, silver has underperformed since then despite a rising gold price environment.

Commodity strategists attribute the anomaly to a changing geopolitical landscape over the past three years when central banks stepped up their gold purchases to record levels to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

While that key source of demand has been absent in silver markets, ANZ said the grey metal will start to play catch up as investors hunt for cheaper haven alternatives to the lofty prices of gold.

“We think that silver presents an opportunity for investors who missed the gold price rally and who want to leverage rising gold prices,” said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. “Its relative undervaluation compared to gold will likely attract investor interest.”

The physical market is also facing stress from US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war given the US imports 70 per cent of its silver from Canada and Mexico – two key targets of his aggressive tariffs.

This 'if you missed out on gold you can still get into silver because it's cheaper' nonsense has been spewed for decades, and probably since longer than I've been listening.

You can buy $100 worth of gold today just as you could have a hundred years ago. Adjusting for inflation, you can buy a day's wages worth of gold today just as you could have when any of us were children. Sure, you'll get a smaller piece of gold now or a smaller amount of ETF, but the relevant thing is the percentage gain.

This 'gold is too expensive so silver is more affordable and people with less money will buy it' narrative makes no sense, and it always surprises me when people make that on. And if you view it more like 'gold has rallied but silver hasn't kept up and it will', well, that sales pitch has been around for decades too and I only become more dubious over time.

If gold is gold and silver is the poor man's gold, and whether you have $100 or $100,000,000 the investment value per dollar is the same, why wouldn't you go for gold when you can buy as much or as little as you want?

Gold's value is completely arbitrary. It is a great example of humans being completely irrational. It isn't a true commodity, it is basically a form of money like FIAT or Bitcoin, with an assigned value backed by nothing. So, when it goes up, people seeing it go up makes it go up more. If silver is seen as the poor man's gold, why wouldn't you want to just buy gold?

Shorter term, silver and gold prices are spreading more than they historically have, so maybe silver will play catch up, but gold certainly seems to be capturing more attention of more people and governments, so it seems gold is probably the better bet. Silver will probably follow gold, but the more they decouple, the more I think they're likely to increase that decoupling.

Silver always crashes when gold crashes and silver almost always rallies when gold rallies, but not to the same extent. Gold continues to smash out new all time highs but silver is still far below where it was at the start of 1980.

Silver might be the poor man's platinum rather than gold.

 

[Sean K]

This 'if you missed out on gold you can still get into silver because it's cheaper' nonsense has been spewed for decades, and probably since longer than I've been listening.

You can buy $100 worth of gold today just as you could have a hundred years ago. Adjusting for inflation, you can buy a day's wages worth of gold today just as you could have when any of us were children. Sure, you'll get a smaller piece of gold now or a smaller amount of ETF, but the relevant thing is the percentage gain.

This 'gold is too expensive so silver is more affordable and people with less money will buy it' narrative makes no sense, and it always surprises me when people make that on. And if you view it more like 'gold has rallied but silver hasn't kept up and it will', well, that sales pitch has been around for decades too and I only become more dubious over time.

If gold is gold and silver is the poor man's gold, and whether you have $100 or $100,000,000 the investment value per dollar is the same, why wouldn't you go for gold when you can buy as much or as little as you want?

Gold's value is completely arbitrary. It is a great example of humans being completely irrational. It isn't a true commodity, it is basically a form of money like FIAT or Bitcoin, with an assigned value backed by nothing. So, when it goes up, people seeing it go up makes it go up more. If silver is seen as the poor man's gold, why wouldn't you want to just buy gold?

Shorter term, silver and gold prices are spreading more than they historically have, so maybe silver will play catch up, but gold certainly seems to be capturing more attention of more people and governments, so it seems gold is probably the better bet. Silver will probably follow gold, but the more they decouple, the more I think they're likely to increase that decoupling.

Silver always crashes when gold crashes and silver almost always rallies when gold rallies, but not to the same extent. Gold continues to smash out new all time highs but silver is still far below where it was at the start of 1980.

Silver might be the poor man's platinum rather than gold.

I listen to people with some experience and skin in the game.

 

[greggles]

In the last five years:

Silver up from $23.50/oz to $53.34/oz
Gold up from $2,651/oz to $4,806/oz.

Gold gets more publicity but silver has delivered the better return, 126.98% as compared to 81.29%.

 

[Sdajii]

In the last five years:

Silver up from $23.50/oz to $53.34/oz
Gold up from $2,651/oz to $4,806/oz.

Gold gets more publicity but silver has delivered the better return, 126.98% as compared to 81.29%.

Now do it with 10 different randomly-chosen timeframes rather than one cherry-picked timeframe.

If I want to cherry pick timeframes I can say silver has fallen in value while gold has gone up by multiples, and it's impossible to say gold has decreased.

 

[Sdajii]

I listen to people with some experience and skin in the game.

Like you I pay attention to people with experience and skin in the game, but I'm also aware of concepts like bias and dishonesty.

The person holding a lot of silver who says silver could go to $500 is probably just wanting to sell his silver for $50 or maybe $100, but I doubt he really expects much more than that. At least in terms of their investment, a person people are likely to pay attention to saying "$500 is a real possibility!" is doing themself a bigger favour than by being honest and saying "I plan to sell around $50"

In this context, with people talking about $500 silver, I think it's pretty safe to say you're being lead down the garden path. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's extremely unlikely, and if silver goes to $500 it will be in a scenario where gold also skyrockets anyway.

Someone like me knows less than they do, but I have a much lower reason to be biased and since I have near enough to zero influence on precious metal prices, I have zero motive to be dishonest. All these things are worth weighing up when listening to people.

 

[moXJO]

Double top at $50?

View attachment 195786

The lack of attention is nothing new for silver. Often referred to as “poor man’s gold”, it traditionally trades at a lower price despite offering similar diversification and safe haven benefits. Even so, silver typically mimics big swings in the gold price, with the moves often amplified because of its smaller market size, which makes it prone to heightened volatility.

But that trend has not played out since gold kicked off its historic bull run in 2022. Unusually, silver has underperformed since then despite a rising gold price environment.

Commodity strategists attribute the anomaly to a changing geopolitical landscape over the past three years when central banks stepped up their gold purchases to record levels to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

While that key source of demand has been absent in silver markets, ANZ said the grey metal will start to play catch up as investors hunt for cheaper haven alternatives to the lofty prices of gold.

“We think that silver presents an opportunity for investors who missed the gold price rally and who want to leverage rising gold prices,” said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. “Its relative undervaluation compared to gold will likely attract investor interest.”

The physical market is also facing stress from US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war given the US imports 70 per cent of its silver from Canada and Mexico – two key targets of his aggressive tariffs.

Can someone post a chart in $US silver last 6 years or 5

 

[moXJO]

Yeah ok I was in on silver at $660 a kg.
Gold about $800 an ounce. Sold the gold age's ago. Just looking at a kilo and it went from about $25k to $155k

So I suppose that's not too bad. The timing might be right to sell silver soon as I get more bang with our dollar low compared to the US. I don't want to get stuck in another commodity boom where our dollar cancels out the gains.

 

[finicky]

Pretty uninspiring

 

[moXJO]

Pretty uninspiring

View attachment 195827

Cheers
A lot of the silver $AUD ramp is just our shtty dollar. That's the potential double top I was talking about.
I always look at $US

 

[ducati916]

	​ ​ ​ ​ ​ “Yes, the CME is a futures exchange, however, it is backed up by physical. For all those that are saying CME is just paper and claiming all other absurd theories like banks are short the world's supply of gold and silver and need to cover, please stop talking your position and spreading disinformation. Banks are short the CME against being long London otc and otc forwards. They are NOT outrite short metals.” Robert Gottlieb, precious metals analyst and industry veteran (LinkedIn), March 21, 2025 The above view expressed today by Robert Gottlieb is widely held in the precious metals trading industry. Short NY CME COMEX / Long London physical OTC spot/forward contracts - what could go wrong? So here is a question: what if bullion banks and other market participants are recognizing that the London Bullion Market, where 2.4 billion oz. of silver spot and forward promissory note contracts for physical silver delivery are traded every day in total turnover, has a serious physical silver (and gold) shortage problem from leverage where London delivery cannot be met. Net claims for physical silver for immediate London market delivery are estimated at 5 billion (B) oz. As of March 11, 2025 (latest data), Swap Dealers (bullion banks) were short 64,041 x 5,000 oz. silver contracts or 320 million (M) oz. of silver in the CME COMEX market in the U.S. These same bullion banks were long 21,925 silver contracts or 110M oz. of silver on the COMEX. This yields a net short position of 42,116 silver contracts or 210 M oz. of silver on the part of the bullion banks. Now the 210M oz. of the silver net short position held by bullion banks in the COMEX is theoretically covered by an offsetting long position of the same size in London. But The Leveraged Claims For Vast Amounts Of Physical Silver And Gold In London Appear To Have A Serious Problem…​ As silver is now moved to New York from London, the silver lease rate in London continues to surge indicating that London vault silver is not being replenished adequately despite London being a relatively short truck trip away from Switzerland where silver is theoretically available to back London silver claims. And as some market participants have begun to see this, others are also recognizing this fact further increasing the demand for London physical silver delivery. This may be the trigger in the leveraged London silver and gold market. Further, the quality of the 110M oz. long position held by bullion banks is unknown - that bullion bank long position may also be ‘backed’ by promissory notes in London. What we do know is that the bullion banks alone have a 320M oz. short position in the CME COMEX market. Given that the bullion banks often have the best market intelligence because of their reach, it would be interesting to know exactly which entities are moving the large quantities of gold and silver into the US over the last 3 months. Do bullion banks increasingly recognize that, in reality, their net positions in the silver and gold markets are not net neutral? What is common knowledge can turn on a (silver) dime. jog on duc​

 

[moXJO]

	​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ “Yes, the CME is a futures exchange, however, it is backed up by physical. For all those that are saying CME is just paper and claiming all other absurd theories like banks are short the world's supply of gold and silver and need to cover, please stop talking your position and spreading disinformation. Banks are short the CME against being long London otc and otc forwards. They are NOT outrite short metals.” Robert Gottlieb, precious metals analyst and industry veteran (LinkedIn), March 21, 2025 The above view expressed today by Robert Gottlieb is widely held in the precious metals trading industry. Short NY CME COMEX / Long London physical OTC spot/forward contracts - what could go wrong? So here is a question: what if bullion banks and other market participants are recognizing that the London Bullion Market, where 2.4 billion oz. of silver spot and forward promissory note contracts for physical silver delivery are traded every day in total turnover, has a serious physical silver (and gold) shortage problem from leverage where London delivery cannot be met. Net claims for physical silver for immediate London market delivery are estimated at 5 billion (B) oz. As of March 11, 2025 (latest data), Swap Dealers (bullion banks) were short 64,041 x 5,000 oz. silver contracts or 320 million (M) oz. of silver in the CME COMEX market in the U.S. These same bullion banks were long 21,925 silver contracts or 110M oz. of silver on the COMEX. This yields a net short position of 42,116 silver contracts or 210 M oz. of silver on the part of the bullion banks. Now the 210M oz. of the silver net short position held by bullion banks in the COMEX is theoretically covered by an offsetting long position of the same size in London. ​ But The Leveraged Claims For Vast Amounts Of Physical Silver And Gold In London Appear To Have A Serious Problem…​ Further, the quality of the 110M oz. long position held by bullion banks is unknown - that bullion bank long position may also be ‘backed’ by promissory notes in London. What we do know is that the bullion banks alone have a 320M oz. short position in the CME COMEX market. Given that the bullion banks often have the best market intelligence because of their reach, it would be interesting to know exactly which entities are moving the large quantities of gold and silver into the US over the last 3 months. Do bullion banks increasingly recognize that, in reality, their net positions in the silver and gold markets are not net neutral? What is common knowledge can turn on a (silver) dime. ​ View attachment 195908 jog on duc​

This is when we need to whip up a frenzy on wallstreetbets. I'm sure the pushed it back in 2020 or roundabouts.
I seen it here with the exact same news too many times.

 

[mullokintyre]

All my silver plays, ARD, SVL and MKR are up a goodly bit today.
Took some profits off the table, and now wait for the next swing downwards.
Mick

 

[ducati916]

“Yes, the CME is a futures exchange, however, it is backed up by physical. For all those that are saying CME is just paper and claiming all other absurd theories like banks are short the world's supply of gold and silver and need to cover, please stop talking your position and spreading disinformation. Banks are short the CME against being long London otc and otc forwards. They are NOT outrite short metals.”

Robert Gottlieb, precious metals analyst and industry veteran (LinkedIn), March 21, 2025

---

I also posted the above quote in a Substack post on Friday March 21, 2025regarding the fact that being long London physical OTC spot/forward contracts can be a long nothing given the blinding leverage of the London spot/forward contracts and evacuation of the free float of silver from London vaults, over the past 3 months, along with a slow replenishment.

I forwarded Friday’s post to Mr. Gottlieb on LinkedIn and he blocked me within a couple of minutes.

Today, Robert Gottlieb posted the following on LinkedIn (the screen shot is from this post on Reddit. ) and keep in mind Gottlieb’s Friday words:
“Banks are short the CME against being long London otc and otc forwards. They are NOT outrite short metals.”

​

Now after a weekend, Gottlieb says “I know I have repeatedly discussed the silver distortion; however, swap dealers’ positions per the CFTC are extremely alarming and someone maybe taking a huge position and be very exposed (see Bloomberg chart of swap dealers’ positions)… … Swap dealers are the shortest they have been in a long time”

Swap Dealers are bullion banks.

So this week, some bullion banks may be very exposed by their shorts (however they are not outright short as they are hedged in London?).

The sands are shifting somewhat.


jog on
duc

 

[Captain_Chaza]

All my silver plays, ARD, SVL and MKR are up a goodly bit today.
Took some profits off the table, and now wait for the next swing downwards.
Mick

I would like to see those Silver Plays LOL!

 

[qldfrog]

I just realised i had reached more than 20% of my total investment in gold and silver: physical, shares of PM miners and PM related ETFs.
Time to ease a bit and cash some profit, even just to allow risk management.
Might put the lot on buying chicken and selling eggs
This is what happen when you target 10% PM with gold at $2k an once, and do not look back
This has been a very nice run, now PM could collapse overnight once i have entered the sell order..

 

[mullokintyre]

I would like to see those Silver Plays LOL!

Why, are you expecting to learn something?
mick

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Why, are you expecting to learn something?
mick

Yes I was!
Is that a problem ?

 

[mullokintyre]

Yes I was!
Is that a problem ?

Ok so what would you like to see, the trade slips with dates and prices, or would a summary suffice?
Mick