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Silver price discussion and analysis

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On silver it is well worth thinking about the bigger picture and the following sheets it home to me.


http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3014/tfmr-podcast-7-ted-butler

And with silver being so important in growing areas of industry and technoilogy, one day soon in my view the penny is going to hit in a big way.

More conservative forcasters say that silver will eventually revert back to its historical mean average of 15 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. In my view, based on its availability and the importance, the silver price in the years ahead will surpass the price of gold.

What do others believe ?
 

We are in the thick of one of the worst Sovereign Crisis in history.
Central Banks around the world hold Gold in their balance sheet NOT Silver.
Silver is more of Industrial metal than Monetary metal.

Therefore imo silver will underperform gold during the unfolding sovereign crisis.
 
drillinto said:
I have a question:
Is silver a bargain under 30 USD ?
Click to expand...

Yes, and if of course you can get it at that price. Physical is getting very hard to come by of late and there is a growing disparity between the paper price and the physical metal.

And of course you have to weigh up within yourself that it is going to appreciate in value.

http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_...+silver&_osacat=0&_trksid=p3286.c0.m270.l1313

I would never buy it via ebay myself but some of the prices are interesting against the current paper price.

If you want it check out Perth Mint, ABC Bullion and W Davis.
 

Your could also check out your ASF resident dealer and get ASF discounts!

Bullion Money http://www.bullionmoney.com.au
 
I know its old news, but no one has mention Eric Sprotts potential purchase of 1.5 billion in silver. Anyone think he's going to go through with purchasing or that he can get that can of silver? If so, how do you think it will effect price?
 
There was a huge amount of physical bought this week. 18 million ounces were taken out of the market between Eric Sprott and ZKB (Zurcher Kantonalbank).

I don't know whether its a coincidence that Silver made a break out last night up to $32. None of the other markets (besides the AUD/USD) really made any significant moves last night.
 

where do you find data on huge amount of physical bought this week?
 
TA of Silver - 20 Jan 2012
===============================
As it was predicted in the previous post, Silver after breaking of the Neckline and pullback is going to reach the target of the Head and Shoulders around $33.00


 
Nothing on the PSLV website reflects that Sprott has actually started to purchase silver. PSLV stats have not jumped yet, the capital raising is underway but the reporting isn't suggesting that it has been competed.

The gross proceeds from the Offering will be US$303.60 million or US$349.14 million if the underwriters exercise in full the over-allotment option.

I think that Sprott is yet to start purchasing.

My thinking is that it has more to do with this...

CFTC Position Limits Rule Lawsuit Dismissed by U.S. Appeals Court in D.C.

I'd suggest that the definition that they intend to use for swap positions is now known but not official so there is now a period of time in which the parties foul of the new rules can get into line prior to the announcement. This could be a classic buy the rumor, sell the fact stuff.

Pure speculation, but I really think that Sprott is yet to buy!

This could get very interesting, Sprott looks to be timing his move for maximum effect. If the last run up is anything to go by he looks to be a predatory long.... makes a change in silver eh?
 
Got info from Ed steers daily update.

Apparently The PSLV stock has been updated on the website? I haven't checked for myself. They bought 9,258,000 ounces. This is in addition to the ZKB buying over 8,000,000 as well.
 
Hmmmmmm.....

I'm looking for some historical inventory data to confirm but I can't find it yet! Unlike SLV it looks like it is not published?!
 
Well I he did buy last week, they just made $2 /ounce. Makes sense the buy why the price is at a low.
 
explod said:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3014/tfmr-podcast-7-ted-butler
..In my view, based on its availability and the importance, the silver price in the years ahead will surpass the price of gold.
What do others believe ?
Click to expand...
Hi Explod. Hubert Moolman is with you, and provides some charts to back it up (on the assumption you are talking the % increase).

Higher Silver Prices Are Coming - By Hubert Moolman, Jan 18, 2012 - http://www.kitco.com/ind/Moolman/jan182012.html
"..Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).
The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level."

That's right, Moolman thinks $50 will be just a speed bump. Also I see the Gold:Silver price ratio has run up over 50 again.

I read this morning that (US bankrupt) Eastman Kodak have $300 mill of physical silver, bought in 2011: http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20120119/business/701199886/
 
Looks like Silver has bounced back out of it's dump and is nudging US$34 ounce.

 
Liking this recent run in silver, break above 35 provides hope that it might push on towards 40. Volume has been increasing. Thanks to Jim Wyckoff for the chart.
 

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Logique said:
Liking this recent run in silver, break above 35 provides hope that it might push on towards 40. Volume has been increasing.
Click to expand...
A couple more days like last night will help heal the nasty wash out from March & Sep last year.

Not too sure about the claimed "rising volume though"? But then again If you are wanting a good run in silver I would be more happy with a "standard" volume run up to resistance. Very much like we have.
 
Thanks TH,
I'll post up the source chart - it is over a shorter time period than yours, hence it does exaggerate the volume histograms. Still doesn't explain the lack of the late Sept11 volume pulse in Wychoff's chart however.
 

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Ah! That volume profile is the result of that chart data not being set up properly. Futures expire every 1-3 months and roll to the next contract. Nymex for example list silver contracts out to Jan 2014 which you can now trade but obviously the action is always in the front months.

Silver contracts expire and roll to the next one in March, May, July, Sep And Dec. We have just rolled from the March to May contract. Your chart looks like a March Contract only. You can see as the Dec contract approaches expiry traders have swapped from trading Dec to trading the March contract. Where mine is a continuous one using data from just the most active contract for any period.
 
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