The Price of Gold on December 30, 2011
By Jeff Clark
It's a pretty bold statement to predict what the price of gold will be on a certain date. Naturally, I don't think I can really tell the future, but here's what I can do: measure gold's seasonal behavior since the bull market started in 2001 and apply those trends to this year's price.
Many gold investors know that the price tends to be soft in the summer and then rise in the fall. While gold has powered to record highs this summer, I can demonstrate that in spite of this atypical pattern, $1,800 gold sometime this autumn is a very reasonable target.
Here's how: The following table records the summer low in the gold price in every year since 2001. I then list the peak that occurred later that fall, as well as the year-end price. Check out the percentage gains.
adamim - informative post - thanks for writing
C'mon Silver, hurry up - gold is leaving you for dead
Thanks for that Iced Earth.
It's not looking like they are going to plan. Silver ain't following your fancy graph with all them lines going through it at different points. Silver ain't behaving.
Why is it when gold goes up, silver is tied to commodities, but when gold goes down, silver is tied to gold - I'm confused, but still loyal... for a while, well maybe not.
I think it's time for some more triangles - can you go draw us another scenario please?
Just the way it goes, look at tonights chart, same as yours on the 5th.
http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html
Few traders around at the start of the week. Lets see Wednesday night onwards.
There's still massive commercial short positions in silver. Mostly held by 4 big commercials. They're what's holding silver back at the moment, when these shorts start to decrease we'll see silver take off. I believe the next break on 44 and we will see an impulsive move up to $50.
I'm no great chartist however, but it looks like there is a triangle forming in silver on the daily chart.
Yeah Ted sounds like a loon. Free market means 'voluntary trading', i.e. no force involved. If JPMorgan wants to loose billions of dollars by holding large short positions on a precious metal in a likely inflationary environment, that's their prerogative, and in a free market they are free to do that. To claim 'criminal enterprise is a measured description' is like referring to an 'orange is a deadly weapon' as a measured description."The most salient feature to the silver paper trading mechanism is that the short side of the derivatives equation is extremely concentrated, while the long side exhibits very little indication of concentration. In other words, the silver longs are diverse and unrelated to one another. This is the hallmark of a free market.. The short position is dominated by large financial institutions, led by JPMorgan, that are few in number but hold very large positions; the very definition of concentration. This is as far from a free market as it gets. Further, the shorts appear to act collusively, generally buying and selling in unison. Even the exchange mechanism, run by the CME Group, is closely related in mutual interests to the large shorts who dominate. Criminal enterprise is a measured description of this arrangement."
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