Silver price discussion and analysis

[adamim1]

Re: SILVER

The Price of Gold on December 30, 2011
By Jeff Clark

It's a pretty bold statement to predict what the price of gold will be on a certain date. Naturally, I don't think I can really tell the future, but here's what I can do: measure gold's seasonal behavior since the bull market started in 2001 and apply those trends to this year's price.

Many gold investors know that the price tends to be soft in the summer and then rise in the fall. While gold has powered to record highs this summer, I can demonstrate that in spite of this atypical pattern, $1,800 gold sometime this autumn is a very reasonable target.

Here's how: The following table records the summer low in the gold price in every year since 2001. I then list the peak that occurred later that fall, as well as the year-end price. Check out the percentage gains.

Article continues: http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/predicting-year-end-price-gold

 

[Billyb]

Re: SILVER

adamim - informative post - thanks for writing

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

adamim - informative post - thanks for writing

Agree, good to see some new ASF'ers with fresh input too.

 

[LifeChoices]

Re: SILVER

C'mon Silver, hurry up - gold is leaving you for dead

 

[notting]

Re: SILVER

C'mon Silver, hurry up - gold is leaving you for dead

I think your supposed to say "Hi Ho"

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

On the daily silver chart it is doing just fine. Has been tied to commodities such as copper and oil for awhile but steadily sneaking away from that.

A steady sure trend is the friend. Silver will soon have its day as part of the alternate to paper money.

 

[sinner]

Re: SILVER

Silver priced in AUD.

Here we go now... lines in the sand as indicated, it is a pretty nice and tight consolidation. Good to spot it now before it breaks out.

 

[LifeChoices]

Re: SILVER

Looks like it's going to be pushing 50 again sometime soon.

 

[iced earth]

Re: SILVER

Silver - 19 August 2011
================================
Silver is braking the neck line of the Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be around $50.00 .

 

[LifeChoices]

Re: SILVER

Thanks for that Iced Earth.

It's not looking like they are going to plan. Silver ain't following your fancy graph with all them lines going through it at different points. Silver ain't behaving.

Why is it when gold goes up, silver is tied to commodities, but when gold goes down, silver is tied to gold - I'm confused, but still loyal... for a while, well maybe not.

I think it's time for some more triangles - can you go draw us another scenario please?

 

[davede]

Re: SILVER

Had a golden cross in silver prices over the last week with 50 day and 100 day MAs crossing.

US$50 is looking very likely.

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

Thanks for that Iced Earth.

It's not looking like they are going to plan. Silver ain't following your fancy graph with all them lines going through it at different points. Silver ain't behaving.

Why is it when gold goes up, silver is tied to commodities, but when gold goes down, silver is tied to gold - I'm confused, but still loyal... for a while, well maybe not.

I think it's time for some more triangles - can you go draw us another scenario please?

Just the way it goes, look at tonights chart, same as yours on the 5th.

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

Few traders around at the start of the week. Lets see Wednesday night onwards.

 

[LifeChoices]

Re: SILVER

Just the way it goes, look at tonights chart, same as yours on the 5th.

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

Few traders around at the start of the week. Lets see Wednesday night onwards.

That's cause it is the same. Those images from the kitco site are dynamic.

 

[adamim1]

Re: SILVER

There's still massive commercial short positions in silver. Mostly held by 4 big commercials. They're what's holding silver back at the moment, when these shorts start to decrease we'll see silver take off. I believe the next break on 44 and we will see an impulsive move up to $50.

 

[DB008]

Re: SILVER

There's still massive commercial short positions in silver. Mostly held by 4 big commercials. They're what's holding silver back at the moment, when these shorts start to decrease we'll see silver take off. I believe the next break on 44 and we will see an impulsive move up to $50.

Which 4 big commercials are holding the shorts afamim1?

 

[adamim1]

Re: SILVER

Check it out here.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home
Theres 8 bullion banks that have huge short positions in silver. Ted Butler follows short positions as you can determine good times to buy when the shorts are low.

ATM shorts have been increased in gold and silver.

 

[adamim1]

Re: SILVER

I'm no great chartist however, but it looks like there is a triangle forming in silver on the daily chart.

 

[adamim1]

Re: SILVER

Strong words from Ted Butler.
"Don’t look for, or expect, legitimate supply/demand explanations for any silver sell-off. I can’t say that there will never be a legitimate supply/demand explanation in the future, but I can tell you I have never found one yet in 30 years of close observation. The price has gone up in the broad sweep because of the force of supply and demand, but has only declined on crooked games in the paper markets. I realize that’s an extreme view, but it is one on which I am convinced to my core. I further believe that if you come to accept this as a core belief as well, you will be doing yourself a favor. What it means is that you should come to expect, simultaneously, that silver has done and will do as well as it has in the past because of the real fundamentals, but that the crooks running the paper game will engineer sell-offs at will to shake (leveraged) paper silver holders out of their positions. If you think you can out smart them by short-term trading, you have my best wishes for success, but little in the way of my expectations. Faced with the reality of the opposing forces, my solution is holding on a fully paid for basis (with an occasional options fling). If anyone has a better approach, I’m all ears."

"The most salient feature to the silver paper trading mechanism is that the short side of the derivatives equation is extremely concentrated, while the long side exhibits very little indication of concentration. In other words, the silver longs are diverse and unrelated to one another. This is the hallmark of a free market.. The short position is dominated by large financial institutions, led by JPMorgan, that are few in number but hold very large positions; the very definition of concentration. This is as far from a free market as it gets. Further, the shorts appear to act collusively, generally buying and selling in unison. Even the exchange mechanism, run by the CME Group, is closely related in mutual interests to the large shorts who dominate. Criminal enterprise is a measured description of this arrangement."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

I'm no great chartist however, but it looks like there is a triangle forming in silver on the daily chart.

You are correct and the high to low formed about 18 days ago with lower highs and higher lows since. It has about a week or two to play out on the up or down side. However the higher lows go back to the 27th of June which indicates to me that a breakout will be more likely on the upside.

However for a better picture I usually refer to the weekly chart and you will see clearly that the higher lows are the order of the day indicating to me a solid uptrend.

http://freeserv.dukascopy.com/chart...b381043d066574841a356d7dfa79c7879646d32707572

 

[tothemax6]

Re: SILVER

"The most salient feature to the silver paper trading mechanism is that the short side of the derivatives equation is extremely concentrated, while the long side exhibits very little indication of concentration. In other words, the silver longs are diverse and unrelated to one another. This is the hallmark of a free market.. The short position is dominated by large financial institutions, led by JPMorgan, that are few in number but hold very large positions; the very definition of concentration. This is as far from a free market as it gets. Further, the shorts appear to act collusively, generally buying and selling in unison. Even the exchange mechanism, run by the CME Group, is closely related in mutual interests to the large shorts who dominate. Criminal enterprise is a measured description of this arrangement."

Yeah Ted sounds like a loon. Free market means 'voluntary trading', i.e. no force involved. If JPMorgan wants to loose billions of dollars by holding large short positions on a precious metal in a likely inflationary environment, that's their prerogative, and in a free market they are free to do that. To claim 'criminal enterprise is a measured description' is like referring to an 'orange is a deadly weapon' as a measured description.