Silver price discussion and analysis

[sinner]

Re: SILVER

Sinner, not sure what I do wrong for you all the time. I posted the link up very quickly to try and help out and then went straight out the door for another test at the hospital re my health. Though I do leave the puter on and stay logged in, you may think I am still present. Just got back.

Dude I am not having a go at you just pointing out the reality since you didn't want to, someone asked for volume and you gave them a chart of the only portion of the silver market that doesn't have volume!

The volume bars displayed in the Dukascopy charts you show, are tick volume, the sum of all ticks in that bar not the number of contracts changing hand.

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

Dude I am not having a go at you just pointing out the reality since you didn't want to, someone asked for volume and you gave them a chart of the only portion of the silver market that doesn't have volume!

The volume bars displayed in the Dukascopy charts you show, are tick volume, the sum of all ticks in that bar not the number of contracts changing hand.

The tick volume indicates activity on the spot market. Realise now that I did not answer the question asked however I did not get it wrong on purpose as you aver dude.

 

[moXJO]

Re: SILVER

tin hats on

Would a leaked report of OsamaBL death have affected the silver market this morning?

 

[sinner]

Re: SILVER

tin hats on

Would a leaked report of OsamaBL death have affected the silver market this morning?

Doubt it. The "leaked" report was from a French agency saying Osama had died from typhoid a year ago or something.

This was more to do with news about the Bolivian mines IMHO.

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

Due to some public holidays and a number of key markets not trading the low volume created a lot of volatility. Was on Skynews earlier today.

Should be all back to normal tomorrow and the current steady price rise would indicate we are on the way.

A good shake out and an opportunity to buy. The reverse candle forming will make the technical aspect look okay too. The support base formed today matched last Tuesday and Wednesday's lows of around US$43 and ought to restore some confidence going forward in my view.

This silver bull run remains intact and the steadying move was needed to retain strength.

 

[TabJockey]

Re: SILVER

Silver looks technically toxic to my eyes. I reckon no new clear bull trend for a few months.

But time will tell.

 

[sinner]

Re: SILVER

Silver looks technically toxic to my eyes. I reckon no new clear bull trend for a few months.

Depends on the chart you are looking at I guess.

On the monthly chart itself, todays move is nothing and we closed last month at 30 year highs.

Take a look at the NASDAQ monthly during the dotcom bubble. See the difference?

Let's say 50% of last months range, ~43.4 is the line in the sand for now

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

It is getting desperate out there, the following from Dan Norcini this morning.

For the third time in a week, the exchange has hiked margin requirements for trading silver futures contracts.

New margin requirement rises to $16,200 from $14,513. Maintenance margin moves up to $12,000 from $10,750.

Hedgers pay the maintenance margin as their initial margin requirements.

It looks as if the exchange is extremely worried after seeing a nearly $10 plunge in silver prices overnight. It will make it more and more difficult for small specs to participate and as I have said previously here, will tend to magnify downward moves in price as margin calls escalate rapidly.

Small specs - be extremely careful in this market right now. There is an attempt going on here to rid the general public of its positions leaving only the big boys to play.

That will also aggravate the volatility even more and open interest drops off and liquidity begins to shrink.

at http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

But of course long term holding of silver is the way IMHO

 

[skyQuake]

Re: SILVER

Anyone looking at silver?

a false break of the double bottom @ 35.58 should be a buying opp imo

 

[wayneL]

Re: SILVER

So who bought silver @ ~$50?

 

[Frank D]

Re: SILVER

Yesterday's Silver UPDATE 5TH May

http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com/


I would look for MAY low support , and then a swing back up to retest
this week's breakout... (next Week)

And then double bottom in to June for the next 'long set-up' on Silver

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

Dan Norcini has done his block this morning and accuses the Fed of collusion, interesting read and a great opportunity to top up on physical IMHO. When the bottom is confirmed that is.

Go down the page to the second article at:-

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

But its a big fall, $15 in a week.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: SILVER

Dan Norcini has done his block this morning and accuses the Fed of collusion, interesting read and a great opportunity to top up on physical IMHO. When the bottom is confirmed that is.

Go down the page to the second article at:-

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

But its a big fall, $15 in a week.

Snipped from your 3 May post -

It looks as if the exchange is extremely worried after seeing a nearly $10 plunge in silver prices overnight. It will make it more and more difficult for small specs to participate and as I have said previously here, will tend to magnify downward moves in price as margin calls escalate rapidly.

Small specs - be extremely careful in this market right now. There is an attempt going on here to rid the general public of its positions leaving only the big boys to play.

Given silver's further massive plunge overnight, wouldn't this advice be even more prudent?

aj

 

[tothemax6]

Re: SILVER

Is anyone really surprised though?

This is precisely what happens when an asset sees a huge rise in price purely due to speculation. With commodities the price the asset should be at is governed by supply and demand. In the case of silver, my understanding is that on the supply side - the cost of mining silver is about $15/ounce. At $50/ounce, miners would ramp up production like no tomorrow. On the demand side - are consumers (consumers, not hoarders) really drawing silver from the market at such a rate as to force silver to $50? I don't think so.

 

[DB008]

Re: SILVER

Is anyone really surprised though?

Me, surprised at the drop, no way.
Have a look at a 6 month or 1 year chart. It couldn't sustain that momentum...

Bloomberg Silver AU ETFS Chart

This is precisely what happens when an asset sees a huge rise in price purely due to speculation. With commodities the price the asset should be at is governed by supply and demand. In the case of silver, my understanding is that on the supply side - the cost of mining silver is about $15/ounce. At $50/ounce, miners would ramp up production like no tomorrow. On the demand side - are consumers (consumers, not hoarders) really drawing silver from the market at such a rate as to force silver to $50? I don't think so.

http://www.bullionbaron.com/2011/02/perth-mint-vs-royal-canadian-mint.html

 

[DB008]

Re: SILVER

Found this interesting article on the web. Could be BS, so take it with a pinch of salt....

There is also a video if you follow the link.

Wealthwire - Silver

Silver's Surprising Gains and Gold's Optimistic Outlook

By Brittany Stepniak

Yes, there's cetainly been a shift in the commodity price trends as of late, especially regarding precious metals (i.e. the drastic silver dip). However, gold went up for a third consecutive session in New York and silver is inching its way into a rebound after last week's biggest price drop since 1975.

What gives? Experts believe that Europe's debt crisis, accompanied by the decreasing value of the euro, is responsible for sparking this demand for the hard metal assets: both gold AND silver.

Yesterday, Greece was downgraded -for the fourth time since last April- by Standard and Poor.

According to Bloomberg:

"Economic uncertainties in the monetary union and fears over peripheral debt were returning to the focus yet again,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said in a report to clients. “In the short run, bullion is likely to remain well supported, also helped by physical activity picking up in Asia amid seasonal demand.”

Greece's credit rating is now at a BB-, but speculators say they will not be surprised by further reductions in the near future. If that happens, Greece will officially be the lowest-rated S&P country in all of Europe.

The euro will likely continue to fall to a lower value than most other currencies as gold steadily increases more than any other currency or commodity.

Analysts at ScotiaMoccatta suspect gold will remain in demand by a variety of investors primarily because of the complications affecting the global economy. Budget deficits, heightened politcal unrest around the world, inflation, and unstable currencies are all factors contributing to those analysts' predictions.

Take a look at this video of Michael Yoshikami, chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors, commenting on the U.S. economy with investment advice:



According to Hal Lehr, managing director for cross-commodity trading with Deutsche Bank, gold could potentially rise all the way up to $2,000.

Silver futures for July delivery went up to $38.475, up $1.359 (3.7 percent) on the Comex today. This came as a surprise to many after silver had slumped a total of 34% since April 25. This qualifies as a bear market to a majority of investors because it represents a decline of more than 20 percent.

Some investors are now critisizing previous assertions that the gold and silver markets were bubbles that have already burst, commenting that they were "misinformed" and the analyses too "simplistic".

 

[DB008]

Re: SILVER

Found this one. Make of it what you will.....

KWN - King World News - Silver speculation

Robin Griffiths - Silver Could Eclipse $450, Gold $12,000

With gold over $1,500 and silver around the $35 level, today King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, Robin Griffiths of Cazenove. Cazenove is one of the oldest financial firms on the planet and is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen. When asked if this time around silver will eclipse the 38 fold up-move which took place in the 70’s Griffiths replied, “Yes, I think getting to $50 was a slam dunk certainty, you test the old all-time high. We now have a consolidation for let’s call it two months and I think then we are going to go on up because the paper monies are still being printed.”

Griffiths continues:


“I’ve got it (silver) as a ten bagger from current levels. You don’t want to be wobbled out here because of a few champagne bubbles. You want to be able to stay with and add to your long-term holdings. Bulls (bull markets) are very successful at wobbling people out at the wrong time.”


When asked if his $350 target was a realistic price level for silver Griffiths stated, “That is absolutely not unrealistic. If you adjust the old all-time high for inflation...that gives you $450 for silver. Then you add in the fact that they are printing money, you can take it higher than that without any difficulty at all.”


When asked about gold specifically Griffiths remarked, “The run-up to the peak in markets like gold is between now and 2015. I think it will all be over by 2015, a lot of it depends on how aggressively paper monies get printed from here on in. I think $3,000 is an absolute minimum target. I can believe in targets certainly above $5,000 and it’s theoretically possible to go to $12,000, that’s dollars an ounce for gold.


If Mr. Bernanke stays on his current agenda I think those higher numbers will be what you will see. We’re looking at the trashing of the dollar. As Marx pointed out, it’s the most assured way of destroying your economy.


There’s a book called ‘The Road to Serfdom’ by Hayek, pointing out that when a country is in debt, getting deeper into debt as Lord Keynes said, ‘Doesn’t work.’ All it does it make the problem worse and it takes longer to solve.


We’re moving away from the dollar being the main reserve currency on the planet...We’re going to move into an era where world trade is done in mixes of renmenbi, rupees and baskets, and the baskets of currencies will need to be eighted by something can’t be printed like gold.”

 

[tothemax6]

Re: SILVER

I will have to pay more attention to this Robin Griffiths. Some men offer good guidance on what one should think. Other men, like him, offer guidance as what one should NOT think.

How on earth can anyone forecast asset prices, not in terms of direction, but absolute price in 3 years? Ego much? And what use is 'silver is a ten bagger from current levels' - when is it going to be a ten bagger? 1 year, 10 years, 50 years?
Then he throws in something about everyone using rupees and yuan as currency, WTF. The USD remained a primary currency because it was the last currency tied to gold. The yuan and rupee have had nothing to do with gold for much longer than the dollar. And both China and India have huge inflation problems themselves which make US inflation look great - they are hardly examples of stable currencies.

 

[explod]

Re: SILVER

I will have to pay more attention to this Robin Griffiths. Some men offer good guidance on what one should think. Other men, like him, offer guidance as what one should NOT think.

How on earth can anyone forecast asset prices, not in terms of direction, but absolute price in 3 years? Ego much? And what use is 'silver is a ten bagger from current levels' - when is it going to be a ten bagger? 1 year, 10 years, 50 years?
Then he throws in something about everyone using rupees and yuan as currency, WTF. The USD remained a primary currency because it was the last currency tied to gold. The yuan and rupee have had nothing to do with gold for much longer than the dollar. And both China and India have huge inflation problems themselves which make US inflation look great - they are hardly examples of stable currencies.

No one can and that is one of the main points I have tried over the years to make. One merely follows what seems to be happening. It seems to me with money printing now almost out of control that its value (and we are seeing it with the US$) is dropping. Where that will all really end know one knows and is of course why tothmax you throw your arms in the air. We live in very uncertain times.

The purpose of having a percentage of ones overall portfolio in physical silver or gold is to hedge against these uncertainties in an endevour to preserve ones overall equity base.

Fairly down to earth stuff it you think about it.

 

[Mr Z]

Re: SILVER

The USD remained a primary currency because it was the last currency tied to gold. The yuan and rupee have had nothing to do with gold for much longer than the dollar. And both China and India have huge inflation problems themselves which make US inflation look great - they are hardly examples of stable currencies.

You really need to go look again and harder! WRONG! Think about what really determines reserve status.

Also... why is it, do you think, that China has an inflation problem?