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The market seems much calmer, has it bottomed , safe to go back in ???
Shares - no more volatility
- Thread starter MrBurns
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Sean K
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Jump right in.
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Sean K
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I've been buying some gold stocks the past 2 months. Also a couple of IO/Coal things that were trading under cash backing. Bought a couple of banks but decided that was folly, other than short term knife grabbing potential.I'll just be cringing in the corner
EW'ers tell us there's another leg down but 12345ABCs aside it all depends on what's factored in. Is a 50% drop factoring it all in? Flip of a coin for mine, crystal ball is a bit foggy.
75% ish cash just in case there's more skeletons.
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I guess it's a bit early in the new year to bother yet and the news out of the US and Japan is very, very bad.
Term deposits are just a waste of time now, but I gota tell you I'm sick of waiting for a sign to do something.
Too early for property, too early for shares bugger all interest on cash.
Perhaps gold ?
I'd only be doing it because I'm bored I've no idea where golds going.
If I get any more bored I'll but an expensive car so I guess I can justify share purchases on the fact that they wont depreciate as much as the car, last one I bought cost me $3000 a kilometer in depreciation over 3 years.
BHP wouldn't do worse than that would it ?
Term deposits are just a waste of time now, but I gota tell you I'm sick of waiting for a sign to do something.
Too early for property, too early for shares bugger all interest on cash.
Perhaps gold ?
I'd only be doing it because I'm bored I've no idea where golds going.
If I get any more bored I'll but an expensive car so I guess I can justify share purchases on the fact that they wont depreciate as much as the car, last one I bought cost me $3000 a kilometer in depreciation over 3 years.
BHP wouldn't do worse than that would it ?
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Not sure anymore.
I sold all my holdings on Monday last ahead of the US stimulus package. I thought it would disappoint, which it did, but only by 5%.
Then, Australia shruged its shoulders and said who cares, like they have decoupled.
News of Chinas stimulus starting to flow through, ours being passed...
My concern is that it may get better before it gets much worse!
I would rather the pain now.
We still haven't had capitulation yet IMO, or is it different this time...
I sold all my holdings on Monday last ahead of the US stimulus package. I thought it would disappoint, which it did, but only by 5%.
Then, Australia shruged its shoulders and said who cares, like they have decoupled.
News of Chinas stimulus starting to flow through, ours being passed...
My concern is that it may get better before it gets much worse!
I would rather the pain now.
We still haven't had capitulation yet IMO, or is it different this time...
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Not sure anymore.
I sold all my holdings on Monday last ahead of the US stimulus package. I thought it would disappoint, which it did, but only by 5%.
Then, Australia shruged its shoulders and said who cares, like thay have decoupled.
News of Chinas stimulus starting to flow through, ours being passed...
My concern is that it may get better before it gets much worse!
I would rather the pain now.
We still haven't had capitulation yet IMO, or is it different this time...
I think there's still lot of people with a lot of cash holding it all up at present, here in AU anyway.
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Ha I know I would be...............
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/16/2492922.htm?section=justin
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Japans finance ministers are always drunk, that's how they roll...
On topic though, I used to trade the oil index, and depending on whether the wind blew there could be a $5 per barrel change in the spot price. The wind kept the ships from docking, and hence the rise due to demand, or, hence the fall due to the glut...
These markets remind me of those times... Unpredictable!
On topic though, I used to trade the oil index, and depending on whether the wind blew there could be a $5 per barrel change in the spot price. The wind kept the ships from docking, and hence the rise due to demand, or, hence the fall due to the glut...
These markets remind me of those times... Unpredictable!
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Yes, you make a very good point MrBurns.
That news out of Japan today (GDP) was HORRIBLE! Market rallied a bit, but no real great volatility.
I honestly think, most paper (institutional global macro positions) are either locked in, or on the sidelines now. Hence, volatilities and volumes drying up. Just a lot of noise and no real paper to give it any direction.
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(institutional global macro positions)
Yes, those are the guys that got us into this mess!
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Who knows really I think trying to time these markets is a futile exercise. You either sit out on the side and wait around a while until the upturn kicks in. But who knows, you could have missed out 20% of the upturn by then.
Economic conditions are going to be hell though over the next year so I don't see how the market could rise. We could just sit around these levels for a while with a few drops on bad news and rises on good news (if any). Or the market could get angrey again and we drop further because of the troublesome economy. Who knows? There would be no such thing as the stock market if we all knew what was going to happen in the future.
If you'd be entering the market (for the long-term) you would only stick to the top 20 or 50 I would think.
Good luck with these markets. It's a tough call at the moment. Banks are giving you nothing, you can dervie your income from the dividends if you can withstand the capital volatility.
Economic conditions are going to be hell though over the next year so I don't see how the market could rise. We could just sit around these levels for a while with a few drops on bad news and rises on good news (if any). Or the market could get angrey again and we drop further because of the troublesome economy. Who knows? There would be no such thing as the stock market if we all knew what was going to happen in the future.
If you'd be entering the market (for the long-term) you would only stick to the top 20 or 50 I would think.
Good luck with these markets. It's a tough call at the moment. Banks are giving you nothing, you can dervie your income from the dividends if you can withstand the capital volatility.
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The Chinese are buying ???????
Long term horizon though. Not worried about a short term loss if that occurs ?
Long term horizon though. Not worried about a short term loss if that occurs ?
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What do you mean drsmith, the Chinese are buying "what?", and not worried about short term loss...
Buying for long term?
Is that what you mean?
So_Cynical
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China Minmetals makes $1.7 bln (US) bid for Oz Minerals.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11797&page=17
and
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/02/16/business/AS-China-Australia-Oz-Minerals.php
Julia
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CBA have already flagged a diminished dividend next time around. They are not likely to be the only bank to take such a position.Good luck with these markets. It's a tough call at the moment. Banks are giving you nothing, you can dervie your income from the dividends if you can withstand the capital volatility.
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Is a long term interest in the red dirt in the ground (over decades) more important than tomorrow's RIO share price ?
I'm very much interested in further commentary on this.
Chinese govt providing steep incentives to invest in oil production
http://www.oilandgaseurasia.com/news/p/0/news/4019
Also interesting to note arrangements between private sector and PRC government which do not affect market prices bluntly, such as Sino Gold. DYOR on this
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I'm very conflicted over this. Its long term damaging to sell of some of our prized land, but do we want RIO to turn into another OZ minerals? Thats not good in the long run either
