SGL - Sydney Gas

Jonathan111 · 5 January 2009

sillybilly said:
Have you guys put your shares in the "sell" column yet? I have not.

Bill

Not yet.

Aussiejeff said:
Me 3.

There's something almost perverse about sitting here on my puny 230,000 holding while all these big wimps bail out.

LOL

I have a smaller parcel of shares.

Aussiejeff said:
There is still a long way to go for AGL to achieve 90%. All the eager big sellers must start to tail off soon. If they get to say, 75% and the big sellers dry up, leaving just us little fish, what then? Will they start buying at 43c+?

Hmmm.

I think they mention that they may apply to the ASX to have SGL delisted and not pay any dividends.

Aussiejeff · 5 January 2009

Jonathan111 said:
I think they mention that they may apply to the ASX to have SGL delisted and not pay any dividends.

Not sure how the limbo-land thing works as far as ASX goes (ie hold shares >50% but <90%). Anyone know of precedents here?

SGL doesn't pay dividends anyway.

No exact dates for acceptances yet?

aj

sillybilly · 5 January 2009

Guys,

Here is my speculation........

If AGL don't get to 90% acceptance the share price will tank. In addition, for SGL to continue as a going concern it will quickly have to raise new capital. How will they do this? Life could become very difficult for the retail share holder.

Interestingly, 1M shares were purchased this morning at $0.43. Also, no substantial holders notice yet for today.

Still holding.

Bill

Aussiejeff · 5 January 2009

From AGL's takeover share acceptance offer documentation with respect to >50% but <90% control under the heading ASX Listing:

AGL will maintain the listing of SGL on the ASX as long as SGL meets the requirements of the Listing Rules for maintaining a listing, including there being a sufficient spread of SGL Shareholders.

Depending on the level of acceptances to the Offer, it is possible that ASX may seek to delist SGL if, in ASX's opinion, there is an insufficient spread of shareholdings to ensure an orderly and liquid market in SGL securities. If ASX proposes to delist SGL on this basis AGL's current intention is that it would not oppose this delisting.

and also under the following heading of Limitations On Intentions:

If at the conclusion of the Offer SGL is a controlled entitiy but is not a wholly owned subsidiary of AGL there will be minority SGL Shareholders. In this event AGL expects that the directors appointed by it will act at all times in accordance with their fiduciary duties and intends that all requisite shareholder approvals and other requirements of law including, the Corporations Act and ASX Listing Rules, are complied with in pursuing any of the intentions which are referred to above.

As a result of these requirements the approval of minority SGL Shareholders may be required for the implementation of any of the intentions outlined above. The requirement for SGL directors to have regard to their fiduciary duties in the context of a partly owned subsidiary and the possible requirement to seek approval of SGL minority shareholders may prevent a particular intention from being achieved.

So, it appears that the ASX has to initiate any de-listing based primarily it would seem on whether there are enough independent minority shareholders left after AGL has purchased as much as it can.

IMO the wording by AGL is certainly meant to "scare" minority holders into caving in. Especially the last paragraph that seeks to paint minority holders as potentially obstructionist to their "intentions"!

In any case, I have no intention of forking out around a grand in brokerage fees to Commsuck through selling on the ASX. If I eventually decide to sell to AGL it will be after they have formally set the deadline and through the offer documentation (no settlement fees). May as well wait until compulsory acquisition is inevitable.

aj

Col Lector · 6 January 2009

Still holding my full parcel...
Dissappointed that AJL rolled over so early, but if another party places a higher bid then I gather that will supercede AGK's .425 and keep SGL in play.....
Given that AGK has snared both Gloucester & SGL for a song, is surprising to see AGK sp on downward drift. I also hold AGK and can see value there...

sillybilly · 6 January 2009

Hi guys,

I sold half of my holding late yesterday.

I'm still sitting on several hundred thousand.......

I still see no chance of a rival bid. AGL own half of SGL now. A small chance of AGL increasing its offer.

Hard to explain the actions of AJL and BNB in accepting what seems to be a low offer.

Good luck to everyone still holding.

Bill

Col Lector · 6 January 2009

SB, the way I read it, AGK own 139mill SGL as at 6/1/09 and have 79 mill shares pledged ( by BNB & AJL) that will be theirs only in the event a higher bid does not emerge. (See substantial holding notice detail 24/12/08). Therefore they are yet to own 50% outright....ie, <30% if a higher bid is pitched by another party. Purposely ambiguous imo....

sillybilly · 6 January 2009

Col,

I think you may be right for two reasons:

1) AJL/BNB have not issued a change in substantial holding notice.

2) One of the annoucements released 24/12/08 is partially titled "Lending Agreement".

I'm a little surprised that AGL did not make more out of gaining 50% acceptance.

Still, I have no regrets about my move yesterday. I'm guilty of having invested too much emotional capital in SGL. Time to move on a little.

Bill

Aussiejeff · 6 January 2009

I note there have been 23 trades @ 43 cents so far today. Each trade is only for between 550-570 shares at a time. Given brokerage would have to be paid each time, any idea why?

Very thin trading today. Less than 3 mill so far.

aj

Aussiejeff · 13 January 2009

AGL only managed abt 700,000 SGL shares from sellers today. Very slow. They started day at theoretical 61% - a long way short of 90% needed and few on-market sellers left? Funny. Yesterday almost all the trades went through at 43 cents - a .5 cent premium by AGL?

They might have to step up the price to 43 cents or better to get their desired 90%+ numbers within the remaining 3 or so weeks?

Still holding till then.

aj

Dangerous · 14 January 2009

I have been told that SGL only had 41PJ of 2P reserves. Is this correct?

I have serious doubts about AGL if this is the case. At the same time, it would mean ESG is under valued in a big way.

Aussiejeff · 15 January 2009

On an interesting side note, it seems BG Group (buyout of QGC) have canned their plan for a gas-fired power station in the Hunter valley.

Wonder how that now affects AGL/SGL?

sillybilly · 15 January 2009

Aussiejeff said:
On an interesting side note, it seems BG Group (buyout of QGC) have canned their plan for a gas-fired power station in the Hunter valley.

Wonder how that now affects AGL/SGL?

The moment BG launced their bid for QGC the "proposed" pipeline from Queensland to the Hunter Valley and a subsequent power station were scuttled. This presented an opportunity for SGL which they went on to present publicly via the grand plan they announced in Nov 08. So IMO the news that there is not going to be a BC sponsored pipeline and power station in the Hunter means nothing for the AGL/SGL tie up. Doesn't detract from the fact that AGL are picking SGL up for a song.

Fingers crossed for an improved offer from AGL for SGL before the end of the month.

No pipeline might mean something more to ESG.

Still holding plenty....

Bill

joeyjoejoe · 15 January 2009

sillybilly said:
The moment BG launced their bid for QGC the "proposed" pipeline from Queensland to the Hunter Valley and a subsequent power station were scuttled. This presented an opportunity for SGL which they went on to present publicly via the grand plan they announced in Nov 08. So IMO the news that there is not going to be a BC sponsored pipeline and power station in the Hunter means nothing for the AGL/SGL tie up. Doesn't detract from the fact that AGL are picking SGL up for a song.

Fingers crossed for an improved offer from AGL for SGL before the end of the month.

No pipeline might mean something more to ESG.

Still holding plenty....

Bill

I hold ESG.. im guessing by the comment here and the % drop today it spells some bad news??? ????????

sillybilly · 19 January 2009

Here's a piece from Bloomberg. Maybe the Queensland - Hunter pipeline is not dead after all but the estimated cost of $850M would have to classify the patient as "critical". Again, just my opinion.

Bill

Queensland Hunter’s A$850 Million Gas Line to Proceed (Update1)

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Queensland Hunter Gas Pipeline, a closely held venture in Australia, said it will proceed with a A$850 million ($566 million) project even after BG Group Plc scrapped a planned power plant that was to use the line.

The venture is talking to a number of potential alternative customers and is confident of securing contracts in advance of the planned start of construction in 2010, allowing supplies to begin in 2011, Queensland Hunter said today.

BG, which has bought Australia’s Queensland Gas Co., said yesterday it canceled the company’s plan to build the A$750 million Hunter project in New South Wales state because it was uneconomic. The plant would have used about one-third of the capacity of the line, which will run from south Queensland to Newcastle, providing the Sydney region’s third major gas supply.

“Although BG’s decision is disappointing, there is a lot of support for the pipeline,” Bob Otjen, general manager of Queensland Hunter Gas Pipeline, said in the e-mailed statement.

The proposed 830-kilometer (516-mile) underground pipeline will have the capacity to transport 85 petajoules (80 billion cubic feet) a year of coal-seam gas from Wallumbilla in Queensland to Newcastle, the second-biggest city in New South Wales.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 15, 2009 20:35 EST

Jonathan111 · 21 January 2009

117,584,772 shares sold today?

A dispointing end to the sgl saga. I guess AGK can fight the hobag battles from now on.

Thanks to all of those who contributed with their time and posts on sgl.

Aussiejeff · 22 January 2009

Jonathan111 said:
117,584,772 shares sold today?

A dispointing end to the sgl saga. I guess AGK can fight the hobag battles from now on.

Thanks to all of those who contributed with their time and posts on sgl.

Yep. A dead duck sold for a song. I think AGK had this planned from a long time ago. They downplayed anything to do with SGL (barely rated a mention in any AGK company announcements or plans) pretty much from the moment they got the 50/50 JV. That made me a tad suspicious right from then as to what SGL's "future" might be, but I foolishly lived in hope.

Then we had the fake AJL "buy in" which was just a smokescreen for what was to eventuate. Funny how Andy Lukas talked up SGL prospects BEFORE AGK's hostile takeover, then pi$$ed all over it's prospects AFTER they did their backroom deal!! LOL

So, if SGL's drilling & production prospects are SO dodgy that it just HAS to sell out to AGK, what does that mean for AGK & AJL's carve up of the tenements now? Or was that just a load of B$ thrown at lowly shareholders to frighten them into accepting AGK's kind offer?

Think I'll park the cash from AGK's "offer" for my remaining SGL shares into the bank for now and see what eventuates down the track a bit.

R.I.Pieces, SGL

PS: I reckon HBGAG will need to raise a bit more legal fighting funds if they are going to take on AGK! Or was HBGAG secretly funded by AGK to help sink SGL? LOL

sillybilly · 23 January 2009

Only a slim chance of an improved offer from AGL.

The Target's Statement made for dismal reading. It could be said that AGL has saved the shareholders of SGL from a very uncertain future. I guess we will never know.

Bill

Aussiejeff · 23 January 2009

sillybilly said:
Only a slim chance of an improved offer from AGL.

The Target's Statement made for dismal reading. It could be said that AGL has saved the shareholders of SGL from a very uncertain future. I guess we will never know.

Bill

AGL aka AGK "saving" SGL from an uncertain future? Why is the Traget Statement about the prospects SO negative?

Hmmm. I know the smell of a rat when I sniff it. I smell rats now and have done for a while now. Pretty much ever since AGL / AGK took a 50% interest.

Seen it before.

(Step 1) Get effective control of an ailing company that has great assets, then effectively choke it's operations and allow the SP to collapse so low that they can then make a predatory takeover "offer" (more like legalised blackmail) for a song.

(Step 2) Scare the living daylights out of small shareholders with an appalling summary of the company's future if the "takeover" fails.

(Step 3) Once the ailing takeover target (in this case SGL) has been consumed, release "new" data that miraculously shows how fantastic and profitable the previously appalling resource REALLY is and consequently bump up the predator company's SP (AGK) by heaps.

I would be very surprised if this scenario doesn't play out over the coming weeks & months post-annihilation of SGL.

AGK management must be having champagne breakfast, lunches & teas every day now.

Might be worth keeping some chips to invest in AGK after the demolition smoke has cleared and the dodgy target statement production guesstimates have miraculously been "re-assessed" in AGK's favour.

aj

Jonathan111 · 28 January 2009

AGL only have 79%, dont they need 90% to complete a forced takeover..

It will be interesting to see what happens if they cant get 90%..

SGL - Sydney Gas

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