- Joined
- 10 July 2004
- Posts
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- 3
Hi Col.
I think you should approach Andy for the Director of Strategies job!
Good points...
Sillybilly...nice points. Agree that controlling Gloucester + Hunter + Camden seems complementary & compelling.... I for one would like to see AJL retain some equity in Gloucester
The combination of existing/growing Camden flows;
an advanced Gloucester project....piped to Hexham with gas sales 2010.
AND Hunter gas to Hexham from ~2012 is a solid but achievable rampup both in volumes/revenue with plenty of scope beyond that.
A leftfield scenario.....
MPO 30% cashes out of Gloucester to (say) AGK
AJL sells 20% G to AGK
AJL increases stake SGL in return for financing+drilling and eventually consumes it
This will leave AJL/(SGL) & AGK in an effective 50/50 JV over the entire Gloucester & Sydney Basins; with maximum vertical integration benefits within the JV, & relatively easy access to infrastructure & markets at a prime time...
I tend to the optimistic, see positives for sp's of all 4 players mentioned...but think AJL best positioned to benefit ultimately if they play their cards strategically, and dont get spooked into selling down control too soon.
Having said that....the market evidently doesnt agree with sp down 10% since opening. A concerted seller evident recently but picked up pace this morning. Good pickings...?
Guys,
The trades today we're seeing are quite large. At 11:23am 555000 shares went through. This is not your average "mum and dad" trade.
On and off for the past month or so there has been heavy selling of SGL. Some of it is the result of margin calls. Apparently, one of the SGL directors has been the victim of a margin call.
There must be at least one top 20 shareholder getting out for one reason or another. I don't think it would be B&B - they would have to release an updated significant shareholder statement.
An equally interesting point - who is soaking these shares up?
I'm resisting the temptation to buy more........for now.
Bill
I found the attached chart on the net, not sure who published it, but here it is.... Still speculative but getting closer.
Stocks bought cheaply may become great outperformers when the market reappraises their worth, because not only do they recover to the old point, but they may go much further in line with the growth the company has experienced in the interim. If the stock is bought at 40% below (20c)intrinsic value(underlying perception of its true value 32-34c), and intrinsic value increases by 10% over the next couple of years, the stock will need to rise 65% just to fairly price the security. Typically though the market will over-react from time to time and overprice the security by a 10% premium to intrinsic value, meaning that the stock will actually rise 80% (36cents).
Why would they leave all that gas in the ground? I think they have been oversold and can easily raise the funds to prove up the reserves and start production..
i hold and am buying under 20c.
does anyone have any ideas about the recent run in share price? also look at the trading volume, it's not the normal trading volume of SGL?
In other words, a faint air of optimism for SGL after years of total mis-management, gloom & doom?
aj
Previous management had more gas coming out of their ringers than the wells.
A good day for SGL, reached 28c.. I think its still cheap from a long/medium term perspective..(as long as they prove up their wells)
I hold and want more..
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