Serious newbie wanting to learn

[NewbieTrader1982]

Have you looked at the first units and have an opinion? Hard to believe someone would give so much time and resource for free.

yes mate, I just finished the first couple of lessons and it's pretty much laying the foundation I would assume to then build on. It does seem like an awful lot of information and time it took to prepare to be giving it away for free though. He does say he likes teaching etc etc but I am sure there is also a commercial intention behind the material (which to be honest I have no problem with and I understand good stuff is never free if you want the convenience of it all together rather than running like a headless chook all over the net... you always have to pay in some way). Still don't have really an informed opinion on him as I just started the course but like I said in my other post, really interested to know what others think of this gentleman.

He also says it takes at least about 5 years to even have a chance to trade profitably. Would love to hear opinions on that.

Cheers

NT

 

[Rypieee]

I started investigating into trading around the end of Dec 15 and up until now, I am still developing my own style and comfort-ability around my trading plan to find what I like and how I want to trade. I went through different styles briefly such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, pattern trading etc to find out what I ultimately want to focus into (Technical Analysis - Trend/Breakout) and going through that process took a bit of time (12 months + minimal movement in my portfolio value).

You may get curious along the way - If you start off with technical analysis - breakout, you might be curious about pattern trading or EW or fundamental analysis and jump into the different styles and stuff yourself over like I did haha (at least now I know what I want to do and that I have "experienced" it all and am no longer curious of the different styles but just to focus on one and develop it).

I have read a lot of different books along the way and i'll be more than happy to share with you my reading list. I am now just reading books on how to improve my TA plan to start reading books on trading psychology.

"Chat with Traders by Aaron Fifield" (google it) is a podcast that I listen to while I'm at work and I found some great tips in there. Check it out as well but I would recommend to listen to it once you have an idea of your strategy/trading plan so that you can add in things you like and adjust it accordingly.

Personally for me, I prioritize the risk management component of my trading plan as the most important part and have learnt a great deal from Peter2 and other contributors. Idea behind that is that if I can control and master my downsides, I am then prepared to improve on increasing my profitability.

I am only trading stocks at the moment (with intention to dabble into the futures market once the stock's portfolio is running well and profitable) and have found Peter2's ASX Momentum Trade Book Part 2 very helpful in my development. Tech/a's interest charts thread has also given me guidance on how to approach breakouts and how to understand supply and demand in the market through volume analysis.

Another thing that I wish I had done was to not dive into the market with all my capital at the start - rather, to use perhaps 30-50% of my starting capital to test the waters and find out what sort of personality I have when it comes to trading before going in with the full amount. (Some might tell you to play with sim money first but I don't think you would learn as much or as fast than if you have real risk in the market).

ASF is truly a great forum and while the information can be a little scattered, especially when you first begin, there are truly gems within the threads that you can pick out.

I gotta get some property tips from you!

 

[fiftyeight]

Have you looked at the first units and have an opinion? Hard to believe someone would give so much time and resource for free.

Yup I did most of the course a while back. Although not my style I took away a heap of good lessons and ideas

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

I started investigating into trading around the end of Dec 15 and up until now, I am still developing my own style and comfort-ability around my trading plan to find what I like and how I want to trade. I went through different styles briefly such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, pattern trading etc to find out what I ultimately want to focus into (Technical Analysis - Trend/Breakout) and going through that process took a bit of time (12 months + minimal movement in my portfolio value).

You may get curious along the way - If you start off with technical analysis - breakout, you might be curious about pattern trading or EW or fundamental analysis and jump into the different styles and stuff yourself over like I did haha (at least now I know what I want to do and that I have "experienced" it all and am no longer curious of the different styles but just to focus on one and develop it).

I have read a lot of different books along the way and i'll be more than happy to share with you my reading list. I am now just reading books on how to improve my TA plan to start reading books on trading psychology.

"Chat with Traders by Aaron Fifield" (google it) is a podcast that I listen to while I'm at work and I found some great tips in there. Check it out as well but I would recommend to listen to it once you have an idea of your strategy/trading plan so that you can add in things you like and adjust it accordingly.

Personally for me, I prioritize the risk management component of my trading plan as the most important part and have learnt a great deal from Peter2 and other contributors. Idea behind that is that if I can control and master my downsides, I am then prepared to improve on increasing my profitability.

I am only trading stocks at the moment (with intention to dabble into the futures market once the stock's portfolio is running well and profitable) and have found Peter2's ASX Momentum Trade Book Part 2 very helpful in my development. Tech/a's interest charts thread has also given me guidance on how to approach breakouts and how to understand supply and demand in the market through volume analysis.

Another thing that I wish I had done was to not dive into the market with all my capital at the start - rather, to use perhaps 30-50% of my starting capital to test the waters and find out what sort of personality I have when it comes to trading before going in with the full amount. (Some might tell you to play with sim money first but I don't think you would learn as much or as fast than if you have real risk in the market).

ASF is truly a great forum and while the information can be a little scattered, especially when you first begin, there are truly gems within the threads that you can pick out.

I gotta get some property tips from you!

Hi @Rypieee, Thanks a lot for your great feedback and lengthy response mate. I can identify with your strategy of prioritising risk mitigation in order to stay in the game and fight another day, also a very important principle to property development, as risk needs to be taken into account at many levels.

I think I am in the process of doing what you did, that is, trying to see what you identify with and what works for your style and personality and then trying to master it, so I can totally relate to that. To be honest I am just overwhelmed with the information and strategies, techniques etc available and I am trying to find something that makes sense to me, before I commit a lot of time to it, basically trying to avoid wasting time on something that I will eventually realise is not the path I want to go...and in the end I'll probably still have to go through those motions before I get to a comfortable place I think.

Thanks for advising not to use all my capital in the beginning and I have read that in many places too so I definitely wont be doing that. Volume analysis also seems to make sense to me at this point as to something I might be able to work with, only time will tell.

Btw always happy to give my 2 cents if you have any specific property questions mate.

Thanks again

NT

 

[Trembling Hand]

I am trying to find something that makes sense to me, before I commit a lot of time to it, basically trying to avoid wasting time on something that I will eventually realise is not the path I want to go.

Unfortunately that simply will not work. You cannot build the top floor penthouse without laying down the foundations and the levels in between. Consider the next few years an apprenticeship where you investigate and learn a little of everything before you decide on a specialty.

The people that jump in will always run the risk of being shown the bright shinny and flashy new thing and be attracted to it. As a consequence be forever jumping from one thing to another. Not realising that its not the 'thing' that makes one successful but the process.

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

Unfortunately that simply will not work. You cannot build the top floor penthouse without laying down the foundations and the levels in between. Consider the next few years an apprenticeship where you investigate and learn a little of everything before you decide on a specialty.

The people that jump in will always run the risk of being shown the bright shinny and flashy new thing and be attracted to it. As a consequence be forever jumping from one thing to another. Not realising that its not the 'thing' that makes one successful but the process.

Appreciate the wisdom mate.

Cheers

 

[Rypieee]

I think what Trembling Hand said is also correct in the sense that you just gotta learn the basic foundation of trading, find which strategy appeals to you and then go develop your style from there. You could start off by trying out different general(broad) strategies like what I did which was fundamental analysis and technical analysis and even combining them both together and once you decide what sort of analysis you want to do, then delve into the deeper, more "advanced" techniques and hone your skills there. The process of finding your niche has no definite time frame, more importantly, it would be for you to not be rushed into a strategy just because you want to go "online" faster.

I am at the stage where I have just decided which analysis I want to go with and just mastering the very basics of managing my trading plan... wont be able to comment on the advanced stuff.

From a newbie to a newbie, the biggest thing you are going to struggle with is the amount of information thrown at you on the first go that you have - learning to be able to block out the "noise" and just focus on your own strategy without deviation was something I personally found difficult but through experience, can handle it better.

You will come across content and people with differing opinions that may cause you to doubt yourself because you don't carry any experience under your belt. Maybe it is just an initiation ritual of trading for newbies to go through such experiences

Another advice that I have for you that I wish I did for myself when I first started was to have a Trading Plan from day 1 of my trading - your TP does not necessarily need to be very concise and to the point when you first start and the idea of that initial TP is for you to have something to build on as you develop.

 

[skc]

With that sort of capital available(or even a fraction of that) you're pretty much guaranteed to succeed at this. Enjoy

He's guaranteed to become a million-dollar-trader... especially if he starts with $5m.

The ASF breadcrumber strikes again. 500k to 10 mill. in 8 years. And he's asking advice on a web forum.

I don't usually agree with you but this one does sound quite sus.

He claims that he's 34 years old. So 8 years ago he's 26 and had available $500k in capital AND the bank was willing to lend him 80-90% leverage (so about $2.5-4.5m loan). Back in the days development loan would have costed 7-8% at least. So that's $200-400k in interest alone that he needs to fund whilst the property is underdevelopment. It really sounds unlikely to expect an individual 26 year old to be able to carry this out financially under normal circumstances. He would need the support of something else (winning the lotto, rich family, money laundering, extremely high income job etc) to make it work.

To turn $500k into $10m over 8 years you would have to make 45% each and every year. And let's not forget there are taxes to pay when you sell your developed property. So even in a corporate structure we are talking about 30% tax so we are looking at almost 65% return before tax. I am not saying that it is completely impossible... but I say trust it as much you'd trust anything on the internet.

I started a search to find out who it is, and I've narrowed it down to fiftyeight. Only fiftyeight people left on my list, but I should be able to narrow it down further. Looks like he has a few new targets too. Don't waste your time guys - he'll be at it for a while.

Do you mean the post @fiftyeight ? or 58 people that he could be?

 

[fiftyeight]

Do you mean the post @fiftyeight ? or 58 people that he could be?

The "Broke FIFO" story was doing nothing for my trading so I decided to switch to "Ultimate Property Developer", positive thinking and all that stuff

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I wonder what happened to Kelly and the 30 other fake nics. Been at least 58 days since I've seen her... I mean him. Must take an enormous amount of energy to maintain so many screen names at once. And an ability to hold a grudge for so long. Toxic.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blo...01503/why-we-hold-grudges-and-how-let-them-go

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I understand the importance of mindset, Really would appreciate some direction.
regards
NT

I have heaps of articles on mindset and trading which might help you. PM me.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

He's guaranteed to become a million-dollar-trader... especially if he starts with $5m.

You got it

It should certainly help if he can use a fraction of it and not have to worry if he blows it that he doesn't have to work for months/years to save up and try again, peace of mind to focus on trading.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I don't get too upset with these types of threads. From time to time the extraordinary story is the true one so if they are not blatantly full of sh!te and not selling anything I reckon there is nothing wrong with letting them run. Normally you get banter between other posters that is worth while(??). And lets be honest this place desperately need some new voices. Particularly some successful ones. If every loser imposes their own failures and limitations on others outcomes this place will end up being full of bitter sh!theads who argue about ideological rubbish in the general chat section. And anyone new will run a million miles from ASF.

Actually that is what ASF is..... too late, carry on.

 

[Skate]

If every loser imposes their own failures and limitations on others outcomes this place will end up being full of bitter sh!theads who argue about ideological rubbish in the general chat section. And anyone new will run a million miles from ASF.

Upon reading the current 'General Chats' section, I believe we have already reached this point.

 

[Joe Blow]

Just for the record, there is no evidence of any multiple accounts or multi-nicking going on in this thread. Please always give newcomers the benefit of the doubt. We always need new voices, so please welcome and encourage those who have just found us and would like to be a part of the ASF community.

As for the General Chat forum, it's nigh but impossible to stop people from discussing politics and religion. You can try, but it's like trying to hold back the tide. Besides, politics and the market are intertwined and cannot be separated. There will always be those with more dogmatic views and those who are more open to other ideas. Ignore those who irritate you and carry on discussion and debate with those you can have a constructive dialogue with.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Just for the record, there is no evidence of any multiple accounts or multi-nicking going on in this thread. Please always give newcomers the benefit of the doubt. We always need new voices, so please welcome and encourage those who have just found us and would like to be a part of the ASF community.

Well we will continue to lose people if other posters can get away with burning anyone who sticks there head out of the lurking trenches and get aggressively dumped on. Nothing wrong with a little skepticism but some people really need to sort their own issues first.

 

[McLovin]

To turn $500k into $10m over 8 years you would have to make 45% each and every year. And let's not forget there are taxes to pay when you sell your developed property. So even in a corporate structure we are talking about 30% tax so we are looking at almost 65% return before tax. I am not saying that it is completely impossible... but I say trust it as much you'd trust anything on the internet.

This doesn't sound totally unbelievable to me. Yes it's an excellent record, but property has been on a tear for the last 6 or so years. Couple that with gearing and you can make a tonne of money in a bull market.

It doesn't seem as though the OP is trying to flog anything either. It seemed more like he was just giving some background on himself.

 

[tech/a]

I think N/T is trying to weed out as much in necessary stuff as he can. If your looking to be successful in any endeavor you search out those who have succeeded before you. So wether genuine or not (I really don't care) Ill post up my thoughts because just 1 person out there N/T included may find something in it that is of benefit to them or prompts further investigation.

Ive had a strong interest in Trading for 22 yrs.
In that time Ive studied a lot that's out there and have adopted.

In no order.

Pattern
Volume
Range
Context
Recognition
Trade Management
Risk

There are snippets of all of these in most books even the ones specializing in a particular aspect. Even Elliot Wave.

To be honest I learnt most from Systems testing and development.
Here you can see clearly what works/why it works/how to enhance it/what doesn't work/why it doesn't/how to minimises it.
Then you find out how to test and what you need to know to determine if a result is worth your money.

Systems trading is in a place of its own but the lessons learnt have been in valuable in my discretionary trading. There is some information cross over.

But for N/T the following is Discretionary trading based.
Remember the following references are from a 22 yrs period. Really the first 10 yrs were "Finding my way " and quite a few times I thought Id found it only to be "Fooled By Randomness!!"


Understanding Price action Bob Volman. ISBN 978-90-822786-0-6

https://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf

http://52traders.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/VSA-BASICS.pdf

The Secret Science of Price and Volume Timothy Ord ISBN 978-0-470=13898-4

A Complete Guide to Volume Price analysis Anna Coulling ISBN----self published
Google.

There is no simple way to become profitable.
You really need to understand how behaviour works for the instrument your going to trade
How to recognise opportunity
How to take advantage of it
Then actually doing it!

There are many more aspects which only Screen time, Wins and losses, good trades and bad trades,
Missed trades, should never have taken trades, and better handled trades will hone the experience you now crave.
There is a huge light at the end of the tunnel.
Currently you know its there but cant see it.
Your looking for direction to find it as soon as you can.

One day the light WILL TURN ON---literally.
You'll KNOW you now know how to trade profitably and consistently.

There will be many light bulb moments and one EPIPHANY

Welcome on board!

 

[Joe Blow]

Well we will continue to lose people if other posters can get away with burning anyone who sticks there head out of the lurking trenches and get aggressively dumped on. Nothing wrong with a little skepticism but some people really need to sort their own issues first.

I don't think we have any trolls here at ASF but clearly there are some people who hold very dogmatic positions, are not open to changing their views and are openly hostile to opposing beliefs. There is some friction as a result but pulling up someone by saying, "you are being too dogmatic" is problematic because of the grey area that exists that isn't there when someone calls someone else an idiot for example.

As for newcomers I think that all new ASF members should be warmly welcomed and always given the benefit of the doubt until such time as there is reason to suspect otherwise. I find it disappointing when that doesn't happen and step in when I see that it has. ASF does need new blood and I urge everyone to be kind and welcoming to those who are new. There is no telling what geniuses might be turned away by being made to feel unwelcome.

 

[minwa]

I don't usually agree with you but this one does sound quite sus.

He claims that he's 34 years old. So 8 years ago he's 26 and had available $500k in capital AND the bank was willing to lend him 80-90% leverage (so about $2.5-4.5m loan). Back in the days development loan would have costed 7-8% at least. So that's $200-400k in interest alone that he needs to fund whilst the property is underdevelopment. It really sounds unlikely to expect an individual 26 year old to be able to carry this out financially under normal circumstances. He would need the support of something else (winning the lotto, rich family, money laundering, extremely high income job etc) to make it work.

To turn $500k into $10m over 8 years you would have to make 45% each and every year. And let's not forget there are taxes to pay when you sell your developed property. So even in a corporate structure we are talking about 30% tax so we are looking at almost 65% return before tax. I am not saying that it is completely impossible... but I say trust it as much you'd trust anything on the internet.

It's screaming all the signs..

- Generic name..do you think any person with massive success in another venture is gona call themselves Newbie username which sticks forever in another venture they are committing to
- Birth year at end of username, typical "post and vanish". How many active posters have their birth year in username ??
- Generic profile picture grabbed off first page of google images
- Mentions exact personal finance figures in first post
- Only posts made in own thread (plus 1 in property which is nothing more than intro after being linked). Newbies typically read through the popular threads and reply there.
- Tags T/A who coincidentally is also in properties..

Nevertheless, the responses are helpful I guess..