Grinder
Don't feed the bear!
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Neutral to bearish, keep trying to become bullish against my better judgement.
Sentiment - are you bullish or bearish?
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Neutral to bearish, keep trying to become bullish against my better judgement.
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We've seen the bottom but it's not the start of a bull market yet. It will be a sideways/up/down market for the rest of 2009 but the lows will not be tested.
I've been buying heavily since Nov 2008 and my portfolio is up over 140% on it's Nov 2008 value. It's a lesson to not try and pick the bottom.
Most "conservative" investors are late to the party and the first to leave. Most of my buys since November had already lost over 90% of their value from the peak. Therefore, if I wasn't prepared to buy at those levels, I shouldn't even be in the market.
Why do I think we've seen the bottom? Because the DJIA level of 6500 was not based on fundamentals but fear and panic. The DJIA can rise to 8800/9000 and only at that level is it "fair value" based on earnings. I see a trading range of 7000 - 9500 for some time yet. Possibly a breakout above 9500 in 2010/11.
I've been buying heavily since Nov 2008 and my portfolio is up over 140% on it's Nov 2008 value. It's a lesson to not try and pick the bottom.
Most "conservative" investors are late to the party and the first to leave. Most of my buys since November had already lost over 90% of their value from the peak. Therefore, if I wasn't prepared to buy at those levels, I shouldn't even be in the market.
Why do I think we've seen the bottom? Because the DJIA level of 6500 was not based on fundamentals but fear and panic. The DJIA can rise to 8800/9000 and only at that level is it "fair value" based on earnings. I see a trading range of 7000 - 9500 for some time yet. Possibly a breakout above 9500 in 2010/11.
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"..... but the lows will not be tested"
Curious as to why such conviction that this is not a possibility? Reasons for bullishness/bearishness?
Curious as to why such conviction that this is not a possibility? Reasons for bullishness/bearishness?
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Why do I think we've seen the bottom? Because the DJIA level of 6500 was not based on fundamentals but fear and panic. The DJIA can rise to 8800/9000 and only at that level is it "fair value" based on earnings. I see a trading range of 7000 - 9500 for some time yet. Possibly a breakout above 9500 in 2010/11.
I cannot envisage a bigger event than "the potential collapse of the global banking system" to spook the market below 6500.
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Other than "the collapse of the global banking system"?
Why is it not possible - it is feasable at least? Some of the the Dow is made up of companies who are technically already insolvent, all it takes is for someone or some law department to enact the law and it's all over. These companies are breaking the law, it's just that all are turning a blind eye to it because the consequences of enacting the law will be a total global financial collapse.
Not many realise how close the world is to that scenario, or maybe they do but won't say so out loud?
GS = fraud & corruption?
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
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So, if the consequences are so dire, who the heck is going to enact these laws then? Furthermore, why would they? Because it's just, right, fair, proper? Get real. The current superpowers that be, simply aren't going to give up their positions anytime soon.
Despite all the scare-mongering by the permabear goldbugs, if I had to place an All-in bet on either collapse, or an eventual recovery - I'd bet on recovery in a heartbeat.
Keep the bearish views coming guys, only makes for a more sustained rally
Just let us know when you start buying :
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I would be allot more bearish if the market was at 6500 rather than 3700..
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It's possible but highly improbable. Govts have unlimited ammunition and they will use it if necessary.
I would definitely suggest people should of been bullish March 13th through to March 27th
however from the March 30th onwards I would expect some to turn more bearish again unless another big break above 3800
Im still Bearish until the 250day MVA is broken and that is still up near 4229
I have been averaging down for the last 2 years. Made a few good picks bought and sold for profit others not so good and have unfortunetly held..
however from the March 30th onwards I would expect some to turn more bearish again unless another big break above 3800
Im still Bearish until the 250day MVA is broken and that is still up near 4229
I have been averaging down for the last 2 years. Made a few good picks bought and sold for profit others not so good and have unfortunetly held..
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Well I'm bearish again, Kleenmaid just went broke, Iv'e been buying their products for a long time and just paid for an extended warranty on my dishwasher, now worthless.
If Kleenmaid can go broke this is more serious than I thought.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25316646-643,00.html
If Kleenmaid can go broke this is more serious than I thought.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25316646-643,00.html
Bearish but trading, I have to say this has been a very tradable market.There is a lot of bad news out there, that is hidden by fairy floss articles on the market already seeing the bottom.Once people get a reality check than it's going to get ugly again imo.
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OK so now we have some real figures, I love this one (better than expected) but if you put better than expected 5 months ago it would have been a bloody disaster figure these better than expected figures taking a real look at the business results are not so hot.
It will be very interesting when the 'real fundamentals' filter through and 'real fear and panic' set in. What will it take a loose of 20% of your Super this year but compounded with 30% you lost last year - not hot. I few lucky young gun gamblers will not hold up the economy long term. Your taxes won't covered the out of work and I doubt you're starting a business to employ them.
I've had trades and made money but fingers are posied to exit. If you're game and lucky no doubt you can make money TRADING but investment is another thing. For the long term I'm out.
I'd be very interested to know if the money buying is real owned cash opposed to any line of credit.
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Exactly, and I'm not so sure they 'boyz' as TH calls them, didn't create a bearish situation as seen recently, then give us one last sudden really to get the bulls jumping at their lovely calls and those bears worrying about their conviction, before they really give us the final snap down into the range again. Just one way they like to fukc both sides of the party. S&P looks like a rolling top to me, a final spike is sometimes seen just to do as I mentioned above.
But agree Canoz, take an opinion but trade both sides if it permits, on Thursday for example, I made more on the long side, despite being quite bearish at the time. If the market does look to weaken though, I will be looking to hit it with as much size as I can.
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I'm obviously talking to a bull - are you ready for the drop down? You're probably young and 'nothing can happen to me' type. That's fine. Just be aware.
Perhaps it is bullish for the stocks you want to go up? Those that held BNB wouldn't share your enthusiasm.
This thread will be a welcomed visit in 6 months.
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A little music to remind us by a legend
I thought it was interesting Wells Fargo should give an 'out of the blue' profit guidance when it reports on April 22 anyway. Weird timing.
Why didn't Citi or AIG give a warning on Thursday night.
I think alot of shorts were grabbed at ES 840-850 and now we go back down.
The N225 falling 200 points today seems to suggest some bearishness next week as well.
And below is a US financial bear ETF (FAZ) that was traded heavily into close.
We'll see I guess.
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Hi Greenway08,
Thanks for the heads up! I've been buying the "big drop down since Sept"
I am averaged right down to the index. Call it lazy, call it overly diversified, call it boring (STW)
I've been buying heavily while allot of posters are are sitting on the sidelines waiting for this big drop. It may very well drop but I will continue buying every fortnight. I am young at 34 but Ive read all the books. And they keep telling me buy the index. There may be traders who disagree and hey best of luck to you all.
The longer the bears keep this index at these levels the longer I can accumulate at these prices, were else am I going to put the money?
All the best and happy easter!!
G
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So, if the consequences are so dire, who the heck is going to enact these laws then? Furthermore, why would they? Because it's just, right, fair, proper? Get real. The current superpowers that be, simply aren't going to give up their positions anytime soon.
Despite all the scare-mongering by the permabear goldbugs, if I had to place an All-in bet on either collapse, or an eventual recovery - I'd bet on recovery in a heartbeat.
Keep the bearish views coming guys, only makes for a more sustained rally
That's entirely correct - the consequences are so dire that extreme measures are being taken to prevent them happening, and yes, most of it is illegal. Make of it as you will, but there are no laws now, at least not for those with real money, so does that make for a sustainable future? It's a game now, and learning it just became a whole lot simpler. So go ahead, buy up big, but when the Dow falls by 1k in a session don't complain about the unfareness of it.
I've been long for several weeks, but will be selling into this weeks rally as the shorts are just about covered?
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Has anyone seen the CNBC 'House of Cards' about the subprime? Even the rating agencies were in on it. Very interesting the amount of people with no concern for others.
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