Sell in May and Go Away?

[Ken]

If everyone had tomorrows paper we wouldn't have these discussions.

Can big financial groups plan sell downs though?

To spook everyone into selling, just like what happened a few months back..

I am sure it happens.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well it would appear that 60% of us ASF'ers thnk that correction will happen between now and the end of May, interestingly almost 10% love lamp

 

[CanOz]

Well it would appear that 60% of us ASF'ers thnk that correction will happen between now and the end of May, interestingly almost 10% love lamp

What is Lamp?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

What is Lamp?

That question can only be answered by viewing "Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy"

 

[Out Too Soon]

Haha! AusCanuckie! someone had to ask!: I just did a google that led me to Wikipedia & thanks to you YT I am now dumber than than I was 10 minutes ago!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well its May and theres no correction .............. YET :couch

One factor I certainly overlooked was that we had a pretty nasty pullback in Feb/March granted it was short lived, it was nasty nonetheless

Can we have another pullback given we're only 2months away from the last?


Thoughts thoughts thoughts people?

 

[greggy]

Well its May and theres no correction .............. YET :couch

One factor I certainly overlooked was that we had a pretty nasty pullback in Feb/March granted it was short lived, it was nasty nonetheless

Can we have another pullback given we're only 2months away from the last?


Thoughts thoughts thoughts people?

Hi YT,

Seeing we had a short and nasty correction only a couple of months ago, I feel that we will not have one in May. Infact, I still think that the market is heading for 7,000 points sometime this year. However, there may be a correction in Oct 07. Well, this is my gut feeling anyway.
DYOR

 

[Rafa]

i sold a few stocks in preparedness...
and they have all shot thru the roof!!!!

BSG, TZN, etc...

 

[greggy]

i sold a few stocks in preparedness...
and they have all shot thru the roof!!!!

BSG, TZN, etc...

Hi Rafa,

Taking a few profits and banking them does indeed make sense. Its a way of insulating oneself to some degree should another correction occur.
DYOR

 

[Lert]

I get nervous when the all ords is up against the upper trend line and I need to rebalance my SMSF to better meet my criteria to hold so taking advantage this week to exit some non performers. I was lucky I didnt do this last week as planned as there have been some good risers. Keeping a few specs (RDS, ADI) and a few dead ones in the bottom drawer (CSM, ARC) as they dont owe me much.. Keeping Ni and Zn and the big miners and banks.. I dunno, its too hard sometimes as I like to hold, thats my nature I guess

 

[nizar]

Well its May and theres no correction .............. YET :couch

One factor I certainly overlooked was that we had a pretty nasty pullback in Feb/March granted it was short lived, it was nasty nonetheless

Can we have another pullback given we're only 2months away from the last?


Thoughts thoughts thoughts people?

We will not have a correction this May IMO. Well not yet.

We havent been going verticle enough, having gone sideways/bearish for the last few weeks.

As usual - im not going to second guess or predict what the market is going to do, ill just play it stock by stock.

The number of breakouts im seeing eg; MPO, AUZ, NWE, SBS, reminds me of the november/december period.

Strong market until at least June IMO...

 

[purple]

Keeping Ni and Zn and the big miners and banks.. :

did you say banks? these are the ones who consistently take a dip in May imo. but if you hold the good ones, May becomes just a blip on their uptrend.

 

[Buffettology]

Hi YT,

Seeing we had a short and nasty correction only a couple of months ago, I feel that we will not have one in May. Infact, I still think that the market is heading for 7,000 points sometime this year. However, there may be a correction in Oct 07. Well, this is my gut feeling anyway.
DYOR

Yeah, I have the same feeling.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Anyone who was watching the mkts on Friday would have noted the following

BHP up 2.5%
RIO 5.5% at one point
OXR I think 3%
ZFX 2%-3%
LHG 2.5% I think

Anyway point being the big miners all rallied and rallied hard on largish volume which could only be the Insto's buying,

Now I know there's rampent talk of Equity Buyouts targeting bigger and bigger Resource Stocks, but if a May correction was on the horizon surely the Insto's would be wary of this?

My thoughts = It now seems even more unlikely we will get a May correction, last week of May is still a slim possibility though

Thoughts?

 

[chops_a_must]

Thoughts?

I seem to be changing my mind every hour or so. I'm rather indecisive at the moment. But those stocks DON'T move on the actions of retail investors.

To me, just about across the board, resource stocks are fundamentally undervalued. Where as financials and retailers look fundamentally overvalued across the board. This bull market is based on resources, yet financials and retail has seemingly outperformed resources, which to me doesn't make sense. There has been no logical reason for financials and retail to go on another run since October.

The gold price to me is the x factor though. It has a habit of bringing the DOW down. If it wasn't for the US, I'm sure the XAO would have done much better than what it has, and fundamentally should do well regardless of what the US does. But unfortunately, that's not the way it works.

Who knows? Maybe a pause or retracement in certain sectors whilst the continuing trend in others? But it does give an opportunity to cut non-performers.

 

[nizar]

I seem to be changing my mind every hour or so. I'm rather indecisive at the moment. But those stocks DON'T move on the actions of retail investors.

To me, just about across the board, resource stocks are fundamentally undervalued. Where as financials and retailers look fundamentally overvalued across the board. This bull market is based on resources, yet financials and retail has seemingly outperformed resources, which to me doesn't make sense. There has been no logical reason for financials and retail to go on another run since October.

The gold price to me is the x factor though. It has a habit of bringing the DOW down. If it wasn't for the US, I'm sure the XAO would have done much better than what it has, and fundamentally should do well regardless of what the US does. But unfortunately, that's not the way it works.

Who knows? Maybe a pause or retracement in certain sectors whilst the continuing trend in others? But it does give an opportunity to cut non-performers.

Tend to agree with YT and Chops.

After late Feb half correction, and the sideways/bearish action the last 3 weeks, we will NOT have a correction in May.
We always go very verticle just prior to correction, and the last few weeks have been anything but verticle.

ALso from a fundamental point of view, heaps of super money still flooding the markets, and this will continue until at least June, and interest rate decision to keep on hold wednesday and todays RBA update outlook for next 3 months for steady rates provides a sound picture for the equities market.

In my opinion.

Also - what do you guys think of BHP private equity takeover?
IF BHP rallies that will carry the whole market.

 

[krisbarry]

A 3% increase in the Aussie market in the past week surely we will see profit taking over the coming weeks. Also note tax time is looming...selling will occur anytime now as investors will be getting in early ready to take profits before share prices start to go south.

 

[nizar]

A 3% increase in the Aussie market in the past week surely we will see profit taking over the coming weeks. Also note tax time is looming...selling will occur anytime now as investors will be getting in early ready to take profits before share prices start to go south.

Whe tax time approach, investors sell their dogs, so the loss can be used to offset any realised capital gains, they dont sell their winners...

 

[Pommiegranite]

Whe tax time approach, investors sell their dogs, so the loss can be used to offset any realised capital gains, they dont sell their winners...

...one word for no pullback in oz this May : "Superannuation"

July may be a different matter though

 

[krisbarry]

Whe tax time approach, investors sell their dogs, so the loss can be used to offset any realised capital gains, they dont sell their winners...

What silly comment, even blue chip stocks which investors have made money on right through-out the year drop in June, due to tax selling.