Sell Everything

Julia said:

... where no sign is apparent that they are going to avoid going over the fiscal cliff. ...

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Just my opinion, mind!

American Politicians will try to wring maximum
political points from the approach of the Fiscal Cliff.

It will go to the edge!!
Just like the Debt Ceiling Crisis in 1995:

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/93043/obama-clinton-debt-ceiling-crisis

Julia said:

How much do we all remember in the time prior to the GFC, when the subprime mess was unfolding in the US, how all the pundits (and many on this forum) assured themselves and the rest of us that Australia was 'decoupled' from the US. Do we still think so?

Apparently so, given the rise in the XAO over recent days, despite the extremely dangerous position in the US, where no sign is apparent that they are going to avoid going over the fiscal cliff.

"7.30" this evening had an interview on this with Adam Rosen from the US who details the potential ramifications for Australia if this does happen. http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

So if our markets are forward looking, imo they're so inclined because they're wearing blinkers.

Glad to hear you're finding a trend following approach useful, DocK. How do you select your stocks?
(If you're disposed to share this, of course.)

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Sorry, just noticed I hadn't replied to this. Have been entertaining a dozen visitors over the weekend, who have not long ago departed.

I subscribed some time ago to Nick Radge's Chartist service and have learnt a lot from the way he trades and the systematic portfolios he runs - live. I have followed most of the recommendations in his Growth Portfolio that fit my criteria, along with some stock picks of my own using the most basic technical analysis. I run a few very simple scans eod using Incredible Charts (based on breakouts from basing patterns with volume, and % price and volume increases over various periods), restricted to the asx300 only, and then research those companies that show the signs of being at the beginning of what could be a new upwards trend. All very simple and basic, based on Weinstein's book, Radge's methods etc. Quite often I've picked a share that has later come up as an entry on The Chartist's long-term system, which pleases me greatly as I take it as a sign that I'm learning to identify the potential new break-outs. I'm quite ruthless at cutting the duds early and have had some lovely runners. Nothing fancy or clever, just very simple and basic stuff that works well if the market will play along and trend nicely - as it has over the last few months. I don't waste too much time in trying to predict what may or may not happen in the future - politicians, economists, commentators and taxi drivers have many various and conflicting opinions on whether the world is about to go to hell in a handbasket or whether a slow recovery may have commenced or be imminent. I'm just prepared to go with the flow and react to what happens on the chart - if trends falter I'll sell without hesitation.

Well done Doc

Thanks DocK. You've come a long way since the Storm debacle.