Sell Everything

[CanOz]

Trend following also includes the falling knife, to know when the bottom hits, cant think of the name on the spot, but they made poker machines and hit a glitch about 10 years ago, went down like a stone, purchased some at $1.20 then doubled up at 80cents because I was scared now, sold them all the next day on the rebound at $1.30 and blow me they hit $6 a year later.

What the names of those one arm bandits, too much red ,,Oh I know Aristocrat.

Trend followers have insights you would not read about ole pal.

ps. I had 40 bl..dy g in the bas.ards

ALL

 

[MrBurns]

Hello Burnsy, I have a question for you and I am not singling you out so please don't take it as an attack, it is not. You were talking about Telstra some time ago, probably even as long as 2 years ago. Can you tell my why didn't buy Telstra at $2.55 (2 years ago) but you bought Telstra at over $4? Nothing has changed with this company yet you chose to pay 70% more? I can't get my head around this.

Cant remember if I was interested 2 years ago, but lately I've just woken up that they were/are a bargain, the dividend plus they have no real competition, I should have bought 6 months ago but didn't trust my own judgement, I also should have put far more in than I have but once again, gun shy..........

 

[explod]

Hello Burnsy, I have a question for you and I am not singling you out so please don't take it as an attack, it is not. You were talking about Telstra some time ago, probably even as long as 2 years ago. Can you tell my why didn't buy Telstra at $2.55 (2 years ago) but you bought Telstra at over $4? Nothing has changed with this company yet you chose to pay 70% more? I can't get my head around this.

Actually for the conservative follower $3.25 was the real brake of the down trend if one looks at the five year weekly chart.


It is now starting to eat into resistance at the $4.30 area so is worth watching. Any weakness yes a sell but if we break $5.50 the next target could go all the way to the old $8 dollar area. For the last comments look at the monthly chart back to 1999

 

[tech/a]

Cynical

You really only have a singular train of thought.

The investment in industrial property has returned $52k a year
X 4
Into my super
I've been short term trading The FTSE since with enough to satisfy
The bosses spending habits.

Not as if I've been sitting twiddling thumbs.

 

[Bill M]

Cant remember if I was interested 2 years ago, but lately I've just woken up that they were/are a bargain, the dividend plus they have no real competition, I should have bought 6 months ago but didn't trust my own judgement, I also should have put far more in than I have but once again, gun shy..........

Fair enough mate, thanks for the answer.

 

[Smurf1976]

In terms of the broader economic issues, there are plenty of people in the "real economy" (that is, running businesses etc but not associated with the financial markets) who would confidently say that in December 2012 we are still very much in the GFC. Financial markets may have rebounded, but a lot of other things haven't (and it's not hard to find stocks that haven't come back up either).

Looking at non-market things, the general mood of society seems to have shifted to one of uncertainty and caution. With economic doom and gloom overseas and things like soaring household expenses, Australians have become more cautious I feel. BBQ conversation is no longer about flipping houses and which plasma TV to buy. Now it's more about someone's son/daughter who is out of work because their employer went broke or things like power bills. In other words, it's shifted from unbridled optimism to caution and a sense of gloom. Talk to anyone who works in discretionary retail or the public service and their perception is likely to be even worse.

For all those who sold their stocks in 2008 because they "knew" something was wrong, I'm just wondering why you'd buy back in if the underlying issues haven't really been fixed? Is it simply because at a lower price you feel the risk is justified? Technicals on the stocks and/or the entire market? Faith in the ability of central banks to inflate?

I'm not intending to be critical here, about a third of my portfolio is currently in stocks, but I'm just questioning the underlying thinking. As I see it, things aren't much better in late 2012 than they were in late 2007 so far as economic fundamentals are concerned.

 

[explod]

Cynical

You really only have a singular train of thought.

The investment in industrial property has returned $52k a year
X 4
Into my super
I've been short term trading The FTSE since with enough to satisfy
The bosses spending habits.

Not as if I've been sitting twiddling thumbs.

First we are all learning.

We take it serious, it is B serious.

Recognition of those with the head down keeps us here.

Your breadth tech is one of the souls that keeps us going.

ASF should have a tick box so that there is no embarrassment.

Anyhow its boxing day, one of my Brother,s Birthdays got a bit p.....sed with another. and blow me I have three other brothers. Me Dad long gone was on a trend but my Sister came in at number six. And bless her she brought me a new fangled phone with a smart screen for xmas which I cannot use because it is very strange indeed.

Maybe time for the Gobbldegook thread.

 

[Ves]

Guys and girls - it is fine to leave my posts in this thread active. I felt overwhelmed and a bit depressed when I wrote that last night. Unfortunately I wasn't sure why at the time - but it turns out (from my symptoms today) that I've had a bout of food poisoning.

Thanks for the civil and interesting discussion so far.

Perhaps tech/a has explained some of my doubts by suggesting that it is the significant highs and lows that made the GFC easier to read for those who acted on their research as compared to markets where the price action isn't as volatile.

 

[explod]

First we are all learning.

We take it serious, it is B serious.

Recognition of those with the head down keeps us here.

Your breadth tech is one of the souls that keeps us going.

ASF should have a tick box so that there is no embarrassment.

Anyhow its boxing day, one of my Brother,s Birthdays got a bit p.....sed with another. and blow me I have three other brothers. Me Dad long gone was on a trend but my Sister came in at number six. And bless her she brought me a new fangled phone with a smart screen for xmas which I cannot use because it is very strange indeed.

Maybe time for the Gobbldegook thread.

That should have read, "three other Brothers" six altogether. Sister and I make 8 altogether, jeez nothing: lotta the good Shepherds back then had 12+ children to bring unto the Lord:

for the Pedo p cks. ....................Hey JMHO of course on this sacred festive.

Lucky wayneL, that most of them seem to talk and think the way you do. Back to the garden in which I keep a soft spot for the fallen.

 

[wayneL]

Lucky wayneL, that most of them seem to talk and think the way you do.

You seem to be obsessed with me Mr Plod; but BTW, I don't think you really know how I think. As with everyone here, what you see is what I want to show, not the whole enchilada.

However, if they truly think like me, then I admire them.

 

[Julia]

Julia, I gather from your posts that you 'picked' the top of the GFC and currently 100% in cash?

Do not distort what I have said. No, I did not pick the top at all. I gave back a small amount of profit before going completely to cash, taking advantage of 8% interest rates. Yes I remain in cash. See Smurf's very sensible post above. He very accurately sums up how I feel about the global and local situation.

Do you plan on re-entering the market? Or hope that the income from your TD's will last for the rest of the your life?

I don't 'hope' for anything. I make decisions on carefully calculated assessments.
I have no intention of detailing my entire financial situation here.

Rubbish hey???

And yet you didn't buy back in, same as Julia didn't buy back in....Bill touched on the subject of personality's and broke the buyers and holders into groups with reasonable accuracy...and now your statement supports my understanding.

Momentum and trend followers are great at protecting capital, running with the pack etc but hopeless at buying value and taking advantage of fear and the falling knife....supports my theory that people cant be true trend followers and bottom buyers, the 2 quality's simply don't go together.

Oh god, SC, you talk some bloody rubbish at times.
You also seem incapable of comprehending that anyone could be in a position to not have to constantly strive to make more money.

As I've said before, when you are in a position to generate a living from your capital, instead of stuffing about with a few hundred dollars here and there, I'll be more interested in listening to you.
You have even conceded that you have always been poor and you are still poor.
Why on earth would anyone take advice from you?

Cynical

You really only have a singular train of thought.

The investment in industrial property has returned $52k a year
X 4
Into my super
I've been short term trading The FTSE since with enough to satisfy
The bosses spending habits.

Not as if I've been sitting twiddling thumbs.

+1.

In terms of the broader economic issues, there are plenty of people in the "real economy" (that is, running businesses etc but not associated with the financial markets) who would confidently say that in December 2012 we are still very much in the GFC. Financial markets may have rebounded, but a lot of other things haven't (and it's not hard to find stocks that haven't come back up either).

Looking at non-market things, the general mood of society seems to have shifted to one of uncertainty and caution. With economic doom and gloom overseas and things like soaring household expenses, Australians have become more cautious I feel. BBQ conversation is no longer about flipping houses and which plasma TV to buy. Now it's more about someone's son/daughter who is out of work because their employer went broke or things like power bills. In other words, it's shifted from unbridled optimism to caution and a sense of gloom. Talk to anyone who works in discretionary retail or the public service and their perception is likely to be even worse.

For all those who sold their stocks in 2008 because they "knew" something was wrong, I'm just wondering why you'd buy back in if the underlying issues haven't really been fixed? Is it simply because at a lower price you feel the risk is justified? Technicals on the stocks and/or the entire market? Faith in the ability of central banks to inflate?

I'm not intending to be critical here, about a third of my portfolio is currently in stocks, but I'm just questioning the underlying thinking. As I see it, things aren't much better in late 2012 than they were in late 2007 so far as economic fundamentals are concerned.

Thank you for a thoughtful and accurate summary, Smurf. Agree with all your conclusions.

Guys and girls - it is fine to leave my posts in this thread active. I felt overwhelmed and a bit depressed when I wrote that last night. Unfortunately I wasn't sure why at the time - but it turns out (from my symptoms today) that I've had a bout of food poisoning.

Nasty. Hope you're feeling better now.

Thanks for the civil and interesting discussion so far.

I will echo this, with a couple of exceptions. We all benefit when it's possible to exchange views in a civil fashion.

 

[explod]

You seem to be obsessed with me Mr Plod; but BTW, I don't think you really know how I think. As with everyone here, what you see is what I want to show, not the whole enchilada.

However, if they truly think like me, then I admire them.

What does BTW mean.

My elder Brothers (I am the oldest by the way) think us alarmists (your term) are a joke. The younger ones, lefties smoke that grass stuff which leaves me to try and save everyone as well as you w/L

because you are all natures Children.

Someone tell me to p... off to bed. Gumby where are you?

Sell, because the sun does not shine like it used to in my view. NQTGA.

 

[burglar]

... What does BTW mean. ...

By the way, what does BTW mean?

... NQTGA.

No matches for NQTGA

 

[explod]

No matches for NQTGA

Not Qualified To Give Financial Advice.

 

[So_Cynical]

Oh god, SC, you talk some bloody rubbish at times.
You also seem incapable of comprehending that anyone could be in a position to not have to constantly strive to make more money.

As I've said before, when you are in a position to generate a living from your capital, instead of stuffing about with a few hundred dollars here and there, I'll be more interested in listening to you.
You have even conceded that you have always been poor and you are still poor.
Why on earth would anyone take advice from you?

I probably should just let this go....oh its xmas WTH

Your right about the "constantly strive to make more money" bit, probably has something to do with the later comment of "You have even conceded that you have always been poor and you are still poor." being poor and not being happy about it has tended to focus my activity's on doing something about it.

Lucky for me i have developed a strategy that has returned me 20%+ PA over the last 2 years..a strategy that requires me to take risks, risks that i have to take because i don't have a lot of capital and a life style to protect, its a different mind set acquiring money and protecting money.

Advise is something we are not allowed to give on a financial forum i think its fair to say that you don't have to much to contribute when it comes to needing money and taking risks...not lately anyway...and that's a good thing hey, a position i would love to be in.

 

[qldfrog]

In terms of the broader economic issues, there are plenty of people in the "real economy" (that is, running businesses etc but not associated with the financial markets) who would confidently say that in December 2012 we are still very much in the GFC. Financial markets may have rebounded, but a lot of other things haven't (and it's not hard to find stocks that haven't come back up either).
xxxx
I'm not intending to be critical here, about a third of my portfolio is currently in stocks, but I'm just questioning the underlying thinking. As I see it, things aren't much better in late 2012 than they were in late 2007 so far as economic fundamentals are concerned.

+1
And I work(ed) in mining and in qld, a supposed booming state:
you all remember the two speed economy mentioned ad nauseum in the last few years ;
I am afraid it is down to one speed and that might be reverse

My own company is now getting tax refund for the first time since i founded it in 2000..Nice feeling to get money back but obviously will not help the treasury and it means I am making losses;
I am amazed at the actual one year gap between government awareness and real economy status.

This shows how far away from the real Australia our governments have become.Anyone for a nice little revolution?

As for the argument about getting the top/bottom of the market: a stop loss is not that hard to design and implement and would have prevented anyone from massive GFC loss.
So I still trade a lot but day to day with SL and do not believe in any actual recovery story at the current stage, I see more doom and gloom ahead than sunshine

 

[DocK]

In terms of the broader economic issues, there are plenty of people in the "real economy" (that is, running businesses etc but not associated with the financial markets) who would confidently say that in December 2012 we are still very much in the GFC. Financial markets may have rebounded, but a lot of other things haven't (and it's not hard to find stocks that haven't come back up either).

Looking at non-market things, the general mood of society seems to have shifted to one of uncertainty and caution. With economic doom and gloom overseas and things like soaring household expenses, Australians have become more cautious I feel. BBQ conversation is no longer about flipping houses and which plasma TV to buy. Now it's more about someone's son/daughter who is out of work because their employer went broke or things like power bills. In other words, it's shifted from unbridled optimism to caution and a sense of gloom. Talk to anyone who works in discretionary retail or the public service and their perception is likely to be even worse.

+1
And I work(ed) in mining and in qld, a supposed booming state:
you all remember the two speed economy mentioned ad nauseum in the last few years ;
I am afraid it is down to one speed and that might be reverse

My own company is now getting tax refund for the first time since i founded it in 2000..Nice feeling to get money back but obviously will not help the treasury and it means I am making losses;
I am amazed at the actual one year gap between government awareness and real economy status.

This shows how far away from the real Australia our governments have become.Anyone for a nice little revolution?

As for the argument about getting the top/bottom of the market: a stop loss is not that hard to design and implement and would have prevented anyone from massive GFC loss.
So I still trade a lot but day to day with SL and do not believe in any actual recovery story at the current stage, I see more doom and gloom ahead than sunshine

+2

We've owned and run our own business on the Gold Coast for the past 12 years, manufacturing/construction industry, and the past year is the toughest we've ever seen. We're keeping our heads above water, thanks largely to having no debt, but where we'd normally be replacing aging equipment and extending our capability by purchasing new technology - we're just hunkering down and waiting it out. Most of our customers, at least those that haven't had to shut their doors and walk away from their businesses, are likewise treading water. Unemployment stats do not show the numerous people working drastically reduced hours. I or any one of the small business people I know could have told Swanny that tax receipts would be drastically reduced - if anyone was actually listening to small business

There are quite a few of us doing lots of quotes, and large projects are being costed and planned, but these jobs seem to stall at the final hurdle due to "uncertain economic times" and are put on the shelf to be started down the track. I'm desperately hoping that an Australian election may provide some much-needed impetus - but that's a discussion for another thread.

As to the trading/investing: I've been deploying personal capital steadily since late 2011 and am now nearly fully invested. The markets tend to be forward-looking rather than a reflection of what's happening right now in my neck of the woods, and I adhere to a trend following strategy - and over this period the trend has been (mostly) up. I believe the market can be completely irrational for quite a good period of time, and I want to profit from that time if I can. I'd rather just follow the charts in front of me than sit out due to my own beliefs about what's likely to happen - but I'm in a position of needing to grow my capital, rather than just protect it. My finger is poised to hit the "sell" button however as I have no wish to give back my open profits when the inevitable correction comes (imo).

 

[Julia]

Your right about the "constantly strive to make more money" bit, probably has something to do with the later comment of "You have even conceded that you have always been poor and you are still poor." being poor and not being happy about it has tended to focus my activity's on doing something about it.

Lucky for me i have developed a strategy that has returned me 20%+ PA over the last 2 years..a strategy that requires me to take risks, risks that i have to take because i don't have a lot of capital and a life style to protect, its a different mind set acquiring money and protecting money.

Advise is something we are not allowed to give on a financial forum i think its fair to say that you don't have to much to contribute when it comes to needing money and taking risks...not lately anyway...and that's a good thing hey, a position i would love to be in.

Fair enough and I should not have been so testy in my post last night.
And no, I am not at all attracted to risk taking when it's quite unnecessary.

I had to start over from scratch with nothing, no assets of any kind, in my mid 30's, so I understand what it's like to be without the sense of security that money can offer. For me, creation of a decent asset base has been more a question of timing and taking opportunities, than engaging in risks with speccie small investments.

I don't know what sort of job you have, but if you can increase your capacity to earn good money from an employer, maybe via additional education/training etc., that's going to be of more benefit to you overall imo than small gains on the stock market. That's not advice, obviously, just a suggestion.

 

[Julia]

The markets tend to be forward-looking rather than a reflection of what's happening right now in my neck of the woods,

How much do we all remember in the time prior to the GFC, when the subprime mess was unfolding in the US, how all the pundits (and many on this forum) assured themselves and the rest of us that Australia was 'decoupled' from the US. Do we still think so?

Apparently so, given the rise in the XAO over recent days, despite the extremely dangerous position in the US, where no sign is apparent that they are going to avoid going over the fiscal cliff.

"7.30" this evening had an interview on this with Adam Rosen from the US who details the potential ramifications for Australia if this does happen. http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

So if our markets are forward looking, imo they're so inclined because they're wearing blinkers.

Glad to hear you're finding a trend following approach useful, DocK. How do you select your stocks?
(If you're disposed to share this, of course.)

 

[Julia]

More on the above:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/fiscal-cliff-risk-now-nontrivial-for-australia-20121228-2byr3.html