Sundance Energy Ltd (SEA $0.57) Buy
Price Target: $0.80/sh
Reason For Update: Company update and completion of capital raising
Investment Case:
Given strong production results the lack of geological risk we expect shale sector tailwinds
will gain further momentum over the coming period with companies involved in the
proven commercial shale oil plays like SEA to be the key benefi ciaries. Future reserve,
production and earnings growth are very likely for SEA.
We have increased our valuation and price target by 23% to $0.80/sh – this incorporates
further recent outperforming production results into our model (increasing the type curve)
and a more aggressive Bakken drilling program over the next two years (EOG, Hess and Helis
operated). Recent production wells have outperformed SEA’s budgets by >100%.
Production is forecast to double over the next year from primarily its Bakken assets, 900-
2,000 boepd, >90% oil.
Following the capital raising (34.2m shares @$0.51/sh, raising $17.4m), SEA is funded for its
Bakken development drilling program going forward (>80 wells in the next 15 months at
5-10% average interests). We expect it will continue to farm down its Niobrara acreage to
crystallize value before drilling commences from the June Q’11. The equity raising will also
give SEA fl exibility to move on various acreage acquisitions it has identifi ed, in and around
its existing acreage positions.
We expect SEA will book a large increase to its 1P and 2P reserves (say >50%) and
commission its inaugural 3P reserves in the Mar Q’11. Due to the low risk nature of these
resource plays, 3P reserves are a good guide to future 2P and 1P reserves – we estimate
SEA will book >45 mmbbls 3P valuing it at a very cheap <$3/boe EV/3P reserves.
The Niobrara oil shale is poised to be the next big oil shale in the US based on recent
transactions and well results – SEA has a high quality >13,000 acre position which in time
could well dwarf its producing Bakken acreage.
We are confi dent SEA’s strategy of being the early entrant into quality resource plays will
pay off - acreage is king in shale plays and SEA has >90,000 shale acres, at least half of
which is good quality, liquids shale.
Comments:
Williston Basin – Bakken Shale
The recent 30 and 60 day production results from SEA’s Bakken wells give us increased
confi dence on SEA’s shale oil development program ahead in the Bakken.
Average production rate results to-date include:
Cash fl ow from an average 924 boepd for 60 days nets SEA ~US$4m (@ US$85/bbl, post
royalties and taxes) suggesting a 6-9 month payback based on well costs averaging
US$8.5m – excellent economics.
SEA currently has 6 rigs drilling 1 well per month on its Bakken acreage at 5-10% average
non-operating interest – this activity is set to increase by up to 50% with new rigs arriving
in the next few months.
The Helis operated Dodge 4-6-7H (SEA 6.4%) well has been outstanding, one of the best
in the Bakken after 90 days. The strong average plateau fl ow rate between the 60 and 90
days at ~1,350 boepd (almost all oil) is particularly pleasing. The Andrecovich 5-17/16H
(SEA 7.1%) has also been very strong with a higher 30 day average fl ow rate than the
Dodge well at 1,419 boepd.
The difference between short lateral (~4,500 ft lateral, 10-15 frac stages, US$5-6m gross
cost) and long lateral (~9,000 ft lateral, 18-30 frac stages,US$8-8.5m gross cost) wells is
evident just from the early stages of SEA’s development program. Long lateral wells will
“hold” 1,280 acres and look to be roughly double the results of the short lateral wells
which “hold” 640 acres. This bodes well for the robust economics of the long lateral
wells but it is still early days in determining the decline profi les and ultimate reserve
recovery of each type of well.
Our production forecasts are in line with company guidance at this stage but incorporate
a six month lag whilst we wait to see what sort of impact the horizontal Niobrara wells will
net next CY. Our cash fl ow forecast is $34m for FY’12 – healthy for a $113m EV company
with forecast production and earnings growth ahead.
DJ Basin – Niobrara Shale
SEA recently sold ~ 5,000 acres of its DJ Basin acreage, Colorado, focused on the Niobrara
acreage for US$8.7m and a 3.9% overriding royalty to Noble Energy Inc.
SEA reduced its interest in the Twister prospect from a 60% interest to 15%.
The consideration was US$8.1m cash and US$0.6m in carry through future drilling.
The cash portion is subject to further adjustment following DD to be completed in the
next 30 days.
SEA has also established an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) with Noble.
Noble is a leading operator of horizontal development wells in the region.
The sale represents ~10% of SEA’s DJ Basin acreage and ~25% of its Niobrara acreage
position.
SEA retains ~13,000 net Niobrara acres.
Our production forecasts are in line with company guidance at this stage but incorporate
a six month lag whilst we wait to see what sort of impact the horizontal Niobrara wells will
net next CY. Our cash fl ow forecast is $34m for FY’12 – healthy for a $113m EV company
with forecast production and earnings growth ahead.
DJ Basin – Niobrara Shale
SEA recently sold ~ 5,000 acres of its DJ Basin acreage, Colorado, focused on the Niobrara
acreage for US$8.7m and a 3.9% overriding royalty to Noble Energy Inc.
SEA reduced its interest in the Twister prospect from a 60% interest to 15%.
The consideration was US$8.1m cash and US$0.6m in carry through future drilling.
The cash portion is subject to further adjustment following DD to be completed in the
next 30 days.
SEA has also established an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) with Noble.
Noble is a leading operator of horizontal development wells in the region.
The sale represents ~10% of SEA’s DJ Basin acreage and ~25% of its Niobrara acreage
position.
SEA retains ~13,000 net Niobrara acres.
SEA reserves Comparison Table:
SEA AUT EKA MPO AZZ Average
1P Reserves (mmboe) 5.1 2.9 1.1 4.5 1.5 3.0
2P Reserves (mmboe) 8.2 8.5 3.4 9.2 8.2 7.5
EV ($m) 129 425 58 307 153 214
EV/1P Reserves ($/boe) 25 147 53 68 102 79
EV/2P Reserves ($/boe) 16 50 17 33 19 27