SEA - Sundance Energy Australia

[Magic Man]

Hey.

SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.

What are the other holders thinking?

 

[bbker]

The thing is there isn't much volume and the general Aus. market is down.

Hey.

SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.

What are the other holders thinking?

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

Hey.

SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.

What are the other holders thinking?

Looks fine to me - still trading within a nice channel. Bought in around 74c myself but certainly not looking to sell at this stage. Will be looking to increase my holding shortly... so sell away. How many ya wanna sell?

 

[AngusSmart]

Finally i am able to trade this stock on Ig markets. after countless emails throughout the past 5 months they have finally listed the stock.. was always considered too risky to them..

looks like its at the bottom of its channel lets hope for a bounce

 

[gsnz1]

Hey.

SEA is looking a bit overcooked to me in the short term, bought in at 72 cents 2 months ago. Considering a SELL.

What are the other holders thinking?

From Esperanza52 at yahoo.com:

As someone whose company has been active in the Bakken since 2005, it appears to me that the Niobrara play is progressing in a similar fashion. Initial wells range from good to poor. As drilling and fracturing techniques have improved, well results have also. A friend who works for Halliburton told me that what they have learned in the last year eclipses that which they learned in the prior 10. These improved techniques have greatly enhanced the economics and reserves.
Here's what Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, had to say about these improvements in the Bakken play

http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display...

Like the Bakken, the Niobrara play will have sweet spots where natural fracturing is better. The good thing about DBLE's Niobrara acreage is that it is generally 2 to 3 times as thick as where most of the Niobrara development is currently occurring. DBLE's acreage is mostly held by producing coal bed wells which is good and bad. Good because the leases don't have an upcoming expiration, bad because the incentive to develop isn't as strong. Nevertheless, this is a good opportunity for those looking for unrecognized value.

Whiting and others have located Niobrara wells in the area of DBLE's acreage and we should get a look at the results within a year. Because of the confidentiality rules of the Wyo. Oil and Gas Commission, the production data for the early Niobrara wells is just becoming available.
From GSNZ1:

There are lots of things to look forward to this year from this company with regard to developement progress and increased production. If you go through the thread most have been mentioned a few times so my thoughts are think long and hard before you sell. It suits me to hold for another 12 months minimum (so i am a bit biased) and then hopefully I will see the potential of our acreage become unlocked and the value will be reflected in the share price this time next year.

Good luck whatever your decision

 

[skivvy]

Technically the SP is around support of 89c ish. The volume has been relatively small on the pull back from the $1 mark to the current price. A production update should be due out this week I believe, so we might see a bounce if some of the 16 wells due for fraccing or completion have started to flow with healthy IP rates.
As far as selling at this level, there are plenty of reasons to hold as there are to sell. It all depends on your own strategy and what you feel is the best thing for yourself. In hindset if you are trading this short term then a sell around the high and above the 95c support level would have been the thing to do, but it is easy to say that now I guess. At this level it is either a point to buy more or sell and wait until the uptrend recommences. Anyway that is my two cents worth and for the record I am still holding on to my parcel after pulling my sell stop out on Friday.

 

[Magic Man]

Awesome thanks for your posts. i to will keep holding and see what happens!!

 

[mikem]

Does any one know of any announcements. SP down quite a bit today. Good oppurtunity to top up?

 

[bennywizard]

Does any one know of any announcements. SP down quite a bit today. Good oppurtunity to top up?

There have been no SEA announcements in the last 10 days, the whole market is down and oil stocks such as SEA, AUT, HOG, EKA, TXN, PYM etc have not been exempt but the fundamentals have not changed as far as I can see. IMO its a good time to be topping up which is what I've been doing.
Who knows though if it will drop further before bouncing back. If you are confident in the long term price of oil then things will be looking up before long.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

There have been no SEA announcements in the last 10 days, the whole market is down and oil stocks such as SEA, AUT, HOG, EKA, TXN, PYM etc have not been exempt but the fundamentals have not changed as far as I can see. IMO its a good time to be topping up which is what I've been doing.
Who knows though if it will drop further before bouncing back. If you are confident in the long term price of oil then things will be looking up before long.

This is very true and people have really jumped back in on the banks so yes this is a healthy thing and buying back in now or soon might be a really safe bet if you believe in: a) being bullish on oil. b) the trend of SEA. c) the strong previous results.

 

[condog]

Big thumbs up to Pramond


this is massive. an instant 25% possible addition to value for the shale oilers, SEA, AUT, EKA, TXN, possibly HOG. and a few others

SUBJECT: Aurora Oil & Gas Limited – New Frac Technology Upside
IMPACT: Positive – Could improve EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
SUMMARY: Petrohawk Energy announced early success with a new frac technique within the Eagle Ford play. Schlumberger has developed a new stimulation technique called “HiWay” Flow-Channel Hydraulic Fracturing that fundamentally changes the way proppant fractures generate conductivity, allowing bigger flow channels and subsequently higher EUR’s per well in theory.
DETAILS:
· Schlumberger has spent the last seven years developing and testing this new technique on roughly 500 wellbores. Originally this technology was developed for tight reservoirs, but they are now expanding that to other types of formations including shale reservoirs. HiWay is a different delivery method and a different proppant. The combination of a degradable fiber (that breaks down at temperature and pressure in the reservoir) with sand pumped in a pulsing sequence in theory creates much higher conductivity in the reservoir.
· HiWay had never been pumped into a horizontal wellbore until Petrohawk tried it in the Eagle Ford shale play within the past four months (first job was pumped in October). Petrohawk has now completed between 10 to 12 wells with a HiWay frac on its Eagle Ford play, four of these wells now have meaningful production data that supports what looks like a significant increase in the potential EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
· From an Aurora perspective, Petrohawk plans to HiWay frac its first well at Black Hawk in mid-March. (Remember that the Black Hawk property is offsetting AUT’s acreage within the sweet spot).
· Petrohawk’s EUR’s at Black Hawk average 1.8 bcf in gas and 770,000 bbls of condensate (550,000 bbls) and other natural gas liquids (220,000 bbl), or 1,070,000 boe (6:1), and this forecast does not include the incremental upside for the HiWay fracs which could add another 25% to these estimates. Petrohawk’s current estimate of 1.07 mmboe is already a 37% premium to what Netherland Sewell is assuming for Aurora’s EUR’s of 780,000 boe on offsetting acreage on trend, before the potential uplift from the HiWay fracs. Assuming a 25% increase in the Petrohawk Black Hawk wells based on the HiWay fracs this would lead to EUR forecasts of 1,337,500 boe per well, which would be a 71% premium to what Aurora is currently assuming.
· We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford.
· Aurora is expected to start trading omorrow on the TSX under the new symbol “AEF”.

 

[prgudula]

stoxline update

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is NEUTRAL in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

SEA.AX has closed above bottom band by 39.1%. Bollinger Bands are 3.2% narrower than normal. The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices.

 

[Youtry]

Not a chartist, been in and out of SEA a couple of times for good profit. Bought back in this week on the theory of weakness in SP, increasing production and increasing oil price. If oil price remains around these levels and you are prepared to wait through US winter then I reckon looking good for another run when production ramps up again. Bakken is something like 98% proven producer so odds in our favour. Plus other shale plays and strong cash position. On a fully diluted basis SSN (still current long term holder in SSN) mkt value is higher at present and SEA produce more than SSN (52k BOO to 19K BOO in last quarter). Maybe the SEA hedging has had something to do with the current SP - not a hedging expert but this is my take on the current situation.

This from the last quarterly report:

"The Company has hedged less than 70% of the production from its currently producing wells and maintains significant exposure to oil and natural gas market prices through its development program"

Also hedging area of the report it appears some of the hedges are ceasing this quarter -7,000BOO per month at $60 floor price end Feb 11 and 6,000BOO per month floor price end Mar 11. They averaged around $73.64BOO last quarter as opposed to $72.44 for SSN - who also have a hedging policy.

I therefore read it as new production coming on board will not be hedged and less of current production is going to be hedged so SEA can take advantage of the current higher oil price? Any thoughts?

By the way only use SSN as a comparison I have held SSN since 2c option days so not a SSN v SEA arguement just used for comparison purposes.

 

[apophis]

So you wernt watching the trading day yesterday either? I wasnt flipping as you put it because I dont hold this stock I got out in the last run. It was merely an observation of the trades that were going thru. The only explanation I can find for an insult like that is If your upset because your holding and ths stock is going down - not my fault but I am entitled to my opinion without being insulted by you or anyone else as per the forum rules!! I suggest you watch the trades for a day or so when it is being pumped up it might be enlightening for you.

I am waiting to get in but not for a while I think its going down further because of the glut of oil in the US, and the delays in bringing wells online.!!


CHEERS

Mate,
No one is insulting anyone here. Re-read what I said. For your record I have been buying SEA from 0.38cents and its been nothing but smiles all the way..
SEA is relatively small and illiquid and its line of business is driven by a number of factors the market deems less transparent and relatively difficult to foresee. Whenever you get geopolitical risk, people tend to shy away from all high beta equities and equities themselves and that inturns hampers stocks like this. I am just trying to allude that the stock market is an animal driven by future fundamentals. This is a stock with very good fundamentals and a very material upside. If you share that view get in, buckle up and enjoy the ride.
As for your advice, I appreciate you going out of the way. But I’d rather be proactive and spent my time looking at fundamentals that will make SEA move forward/backward and share that with people here. I would hate to waste their time and summarise a series of flickering lights and backwards looking indicators.
So on that note, I wanted to thank once again and encourage those that have contributed some quality research.
‘ the trend is your friend’

 

[bbker]

The bot or bots are still mucking with SEA it looks like. All these piddly trades littered to manipulate the price and then suddenly a price drop out of nowhere, then back to VWAP.

I'm not sure if it's trying to achieve a high sell or cheap buy but last Tuesday someone managed to score 170k shares at 81c ! then casually back to the regular 87c

 

[bbker]

Not a chartist, been in and out of SEA a couple of times for good profit. Bought back in this week on the theory of weakness in SP, increasing production and increasing oil price. If oil price remains around these levels and you are prepared to wait through US winter then I reckon looking good for another run when production ramps up again. Bakken is something like 98% proven producer so odds in our favour. Plus other shale plays and strong cash position. On a fully diluted basis SSN (still current long term holder in SSN) mkt value is higher at present and SEA produce more than SSN (52k BOO to 19K BOO in last quarter). Maybe the SEA hedging has had something to do with the current SP - not a hedging expert but this is my take on the current situation.

This from the last quarterly report:

"The Company has hedged less than 70% of the production from its currently producing wells and maintains significant exposure to oil and natural gas market prices through its development program"

Also hedging area of the report it appears some of the hedges are ceasing this quarter -7,000BOO per month at $60 floor price end Feb 11 and 6,000BOO per month floor price end Mar 11. They averaged around $73.64BOO last quarter as opposed to $72.44 for SSN - who also have a hedging policy.

I therefore read it as new production coming on board will not be hedged and less of current production is going to be hedged so SEA can take advantage of the current higher oil price? Any thoughts?

By the way only use SSN as a comparison I have held SSN since 2c option days so not a SSN v SEA arguement just used for comparison purposes.

Bump for more responses.

I'm also interested to know how SSN (266m) is valued more than SEA (211m) by about $50m. Surely SEA is worth at least as much as SSN, so SEA's SP could be at least $1.15 by comparison

If SEA is producing 2.5 times more BOO that would mean SSN could be selling it for at least 2.5 times more to be on par, and this isn't logical however you match it up with the hedging and spot prices.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Bump for more responses.

I'm also interested to know how SSN (266m) is valued more than SEA (211m) by about $50m. Surely SEA is worth at least as much as SSN, so SEA's SP could be at least $1.15 by comparison

If SEA is producing 2.5 times more BOO that would mean SSN could be selling it for at least 2.5 times more to be on par, and this isn't logical however you match it up with the hedging and spot prices.

That's easy, SEA is really undervalued at the moment, any getting in nowish will love the next few weeks and months. The Production update should be here very shortly... shouldn't it condog?? This might be the next catalyst for some more growth in SP.

Now im not much for technicals apart from support, resistance and round number buying/selling but I can still see a lovely trend upwards and still nicely inside the growth channel.

 

[bbker]

With the general slowdown up in the northern American states, I don't think the team will be in a hurry to release a production update. But who knows with their ambitious style?

Well done to SSN with its popularity... from exposure and recent publicity in the American market, giving it a much bigger advantage. It's paid off with the SP really shooting up the past few days. I wish I got in last fortnight with its 12-13c shares, just looking at the trading queue of 30 million share buy vs 8 million share sell -- that's insane!

Since we're comparing, SEA seems to have a milder, more austere appearance. At least that's my perception

It's a curiosity but still apples and oranges anyway.

That's easy, SEA is really undervalued at the moment, any getting in nowish will love the next few weeks and months. The Production update should be here very shortly... shouldn't it condog?? This might be the next catalyst for some more growth in SP.

Now im not much for technicals apart from support, resistance and round number buying/selling but I can still see a lovely trend upwards and still nicely inside the growth channel.

 

[Youtry]

Just further to my earlier post:

As per last quarterly report:
SEA has 8,841 Net Acres in the Bakken which is pretty proven
SEA has 13,058 Net Accres in Niobrara and intial JV with HAL with royalty, not yet proven as much as Bakken
SEA has an additional 90,609 Net Acres in other exploration plays
SEA has a cash position of $32m
SEA produced 52k BOO last quarter and made over $4.3m in cash inflows last quarter. Given decline rates but new wells on board this quarter would expect to remian steady if there have been delays and to continue to increase during the year
As per quarterly - "Reduced hedged volumes as a percentage of forecasted production to capitalize on
strengthening oil prices"
Shares - 277m approx and at today's price of 93.5c mkt cap of $260m

SSN has:
1,200 Net acres in Bakken, looking at reducing spacing to get more wells - 2 wells to frac at 29.50% approx to SSN and 1 well to follow before reduced spacing
14,000 Niobrara Net Acres with initial JV with Hal with royalty
24,000 Net Acres owned by CHK with SSN royalty at 3.8%
Other producing but declining gas assets to be sold to reduce tax, diamondback well to be drilled
Net Cash position of about $58m, after loan paid back
SSN produced 19k BOO and cash inflow of $2.03m last quarter. Have not drilled a well this quarter (yet) and will have a reduction in BOO this quarter due to decline rates and has no new well in production since late Sep 10. But 2 new wells to frac mid to late March in Bakken at approx 29.5% share to SSN will increase production in June 11 quarter
Including options in the money of approx 300m+ and current approx 1.664 billion shares and new director options at 8c would have about 2b shares at today's closing price of 18.5c would be an approx 370m mkt cap.

Given as per last SSN presentation just posted it states the Bakken has potential depending on various to generate 30m to 40m BOO per square mile and Niobara 10m to 20m per square mile - I find it interesting that SSN has as at today's price a $100m higher market cap even though SEA has 7 times more net acres in the Bakken region which should produce more oil over time.

Any thoughts why such a large mkt cap difference?

I have invested in both so not having a go at one over the other just think they make an interesting comparison and to me it just depends who is the flavour of the month for the market - bit like SSN 6 or so months ago when fundamentals were strong relative to mkt value but was unloved.

 

[bbker]

The word is there'll be an announcement in a few days about the release of reserves upgrades and the SEA team is coming to Australia for conferences and talks with large institutions...

That's easy, SEA is really undervalued at the moment, any getting in nowish will love the next few weeks and months. The Production update should be here very shortly... shouldn't it condog?? This might be the next catalyst for some more growth in SP.

Now im not much for technicals apart from support, resistance and round number buying/selling but I can still see a lovely trend upwards and still nicely inside the growth channel.