SDV - SciDev Limited

[Porper]

Just looking from an Elliot Wave / Fib retracement point of view, maybe we have another 0.015 to go down.

wave C is usually the same length as wave A, so that takes us to 0.21.

I hold so hope I am wrong.

Also highly unlikely but the ABC correction can take us back to the wave 4 low area, but as we seem to have had a extended wave 5, like I said, highly unlikely.

The good news is that wherever wave C takes us, we should have another 5 wave impulsive move up.

 

[Moneybags]

if i wasnt already holding i would be loving this.. accumulation on the cheap

Dito Kransky........holding this stock is teaching me a lot very quickly.

MB

 

[nizar]

if i wasnt already holding i would be loving this.. accumulation on the cheap

 

[kransky]

well what is going to happen to this stock once ivanhoe finish selling their stake?

only one place to go after being capped at 27c

i am guessing the recent falls down to 23c are because people have lost patience. money sitting in INL cant do any work so they move out looking for greener pastures.

i wonder if ivanhoe have been selling this down to 23c?

if so then i may start topping up if it goes under 20c!

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Seems to be a build up of buyers, perhaps ready to make a small climb.

With all the previous talk of manipulation can anybody still see signs of this occuring?

I see heaps of buyers then small parcels around .23 keep getting put up to sell.

 

[toc_bat]

could it possible that 23-23.5 is a confirmed support?

expert comments welcome ...

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Apparently some company is selling its stake in INL equates to like 30-40 mill shares or something perhaps its them.

 

[ALFguy]

Read the thread.

Ivanhoe are offloading their holding.
Charting wise, looks like it could go a little lower but plenty of buyers appearing around 23c so who knows.

My theory is that everyone knows what Ivanhoe are doing, so buying what they sell isn't such a bad idea. The usual worry that lots of holders are selling, isn't working here.

Good company, good fundamentals and technology seems to work. Added to that, they're in the Zinc business, I see more upside than down at these prices. DYOR.

 

[constable]

Read the thread.

Ivanhoe are offloading their holding.
Charting wise, looks like it could go a little lower but plenty of buyers appearing around 23c so who knows.

My theory is that everyone knows what Ivanhoe are doing, so buying what they sell isn't such a bad idea. The usual worry that lots of holders are selling, isn't working here.

Good company, good fundamentals and technology seems to work. Added to that, they're in the Zinc business, I see more upside than down at these prices. DYOR.

somebody else sees plenty of upside too judging by the shoot out!
edit ... could be the start of another wave looking at the graph.

 

[drmb]

Hi Zincies

From Bloomberg this morning "Zinc Rises in London as Investors Judge Declines Were Overdone" By Brett Foley Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Zinc snapped four days of declines in London as investors judged that sales linked to changes in a commodity index left the price undervalued given a slump in inventories last year. Stockpiles of zinc gained 175 metric tons to 94,250 tons, the London Metal Exchange said in a daily report. Still, inventories have declined 55 percent in the past year as consumers withdrew the metal amid a production shortfall.

Dow Jones & Co. began adjusting the weightings of the 19 futures in the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity index this week. The weighting of zinc, the second-best index performer last year, will be cut, leading some investors tracking the index to sell the metal. It fell 5.4 percent yesterday on the LME.

``These large sell-offs cause price falls, which encourage the bargain hunters back in,'' said Nick Moore, a metals analyst at ABN Amro NV in London.

Zinc for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained $135, or 3.8 percent, to $3,655 a metric ton as of 4:25 p.m. local time. A close at that price would be the biggest one-day gain since Oct. 16. Yesterday, the metal used to galvanize steel fell the most since June.

Other metals of the LME rose. Copper increased $155, or 2.8 percent, to $5,780 a ton, and nickel gained $1,050, or 3.5 percent, to $31,300. Lead advanced $35 to $1,585 and tin jumped $350 to $10,450."

I hold and will kep holding mid to long! Time to accumulate if I had cash imho but dyor!

 

[imajica]

strong preopen with over 2 million on the bid at 24c

hopefully yesterday was the turning point

 

[ned1]

The buy side just keeps building and building.

It will be interesting to see if the price surges at what point if at all Ivanhoe starts selling.

If there is not a big selloff around 27c, I think it will confirm that they will be doing an off market deal.

 

[constable]

strong preopen with over 2 million on the bid at 24c

hopefully yesterday was the turning point

The big buyer dissappeared, funny that. Anyway even though its stalled a bit now there was no big dump on open from our friends at Ivanhoe. Was just holding overnight.

 

[wintermute]

My goodness you guys can crap on!!! I just came back to this thread after about a month, and well, I got through it, but it was a task so just to punish you all, now I'm going to crap on

IMO trying to work out the market depth of INL is a waste of time... Believe me (and Kennas will remember) that I spent a lot of time back 6 months or so ago thinking it was going to retrace to 8c, every time the buy side support seemed to have evaporated and sell orders started to appear at lower prices (11c and occasionally 10c) suddenly they would get snapped up. Buyers appearing from no where. I kept waiting and eventually bought some at 13.5 (they then went back to 11c and I didn't top up).... in the end when it retraced after the initial breakout, I got some more at 19.5.... had I just bitten the bullet and bough what I really wanted at 11c and waited I would have done quite nicely!

what is the point of all of this??? basically I think that there are some very smart buyers out there.... they don't put in bids for 10 million (even though they may want 10 million) because then the sellers will think hmmmm I think I'll raise my price... if there appears to be no buy side support the sellers tend to get scared and drop their sell price... its all psychological warfare

IMO INL will not make any spectacular rises like say JMS, MOX, MMB etc, and I don't want it too! all of these rockets are based on speculation about extremely vague announcements that capture the imagination of people who want to get rich quick!!! That is not INL, if you want that sort of action go elsewhere I said earlier in the thread, INL's next major price move will likely be IF they make a positive announcement about the Bankable Feasibility Study for the new Burnie plant. If the plant gets the go ahead then after that, there may be some jumps as various milestones are made building, commissioning and starting production from the plant... after this we can look forward to licensing, consulting etc... none of this is going to happen overnight.

ATM the price action has IMO been pretty much entirely due to the starting of production of the metal of the moment Zinc.... Zincs been copping a battering lately, so has INL's sp, have a look at ZFX's sp lately, better still have a look at the chart I have attached which plots INL's sp against (relatively) ZFX's!!!

I've said it before and I'll say it again.... INL's future is IMO with the Intec process. the sale of zinc (through the polymetals JV) is just a (very clever on INL's part) means to an end... it will provide cash flow, reducing the need for cap raisings and debt, that would have otherwise been required to fund the further development of the Intec process. Of course if the Intec process never gets off the ground, they can continue on as a zn producer for years to come, especially now that they will also be getting ore from BSM, but if the Intec Process does get off the ground, I think that the polymetals JV will be just a small part of the company that eventually forms.

OK I'll shut up now, but I hope even though this post was long, it at least has something of merit in it

Tony.

 

[pete152]

so just to punish you all, now I'm going to crap on

Tony.

Boy you Crap on!!

No seriously that was very good, the way you explained your thoughts on the company.
Thank you for the information,
Peter

 

[Moneybags]

Wintermute,

Thanks for a great post........much appreciated.

I would add though, that although the recent drop in share price seems to be following POZ and is in line with other Zincers, the initial drop from .27 started just after IVN announced their intention to sell out of INL. When IVN have completed this.......surely.......a slow climb is on the cards.

MB

 

[wintermute]

Hi Moneybags, yes a big seller could be limiting things, but it depends on How quickly they need to divest the shares.... without knowing their time requirements I think it is a hard call to say whether or not this was capping the share price at 27c. If I had 39 Million shares to get rid of and 6 months to do it in I'd watch the sp like a hawk and only put in bids when things seemed to have stalled, and also only selling as many shares as were at the highest price point in the buy side queue... then again depending on their buy in price they might be making a very tidy profit at even 24c so who knows (I guess I could go look for the initial notice of becoming a substantial holder).

If you look at the long term chart for INL you will see quite long periods of sideways price movement the first major jump was at the polymetals JV announcement, and the second one was due to them starting production of zn (through that JV)... there are definitely two very different catalysts for price action with INL (though the intec process seems to have been extremely lacking in that regard, now that I look more closely)., something IMO needs to change with one or the other before anything significant happens with the sp (but I've been wrong many times in the past ) .

I think for now the price will remain linked to zn prices, and any changes that occur with relation to the amount of zn they are outputting. Though the BFS was due to be completed by January but not holding my breath on that one, as steady state seemed to slip a few times too.... I think the results of the BFS if positive should see some more upward price movement, but then again if people realise that all the profits from the Polymetals J/V are going to be used to develop the Intec process and not be returned as dividends (this is just what I think they will do) then perhaps the sp will go down! hope not...

Having just looked back at the sp hikes and realising that none of the major ones had anything to do with the Intec process, I wonder whether investors have lost sight of this important component of the company, and in general see Intec as nothing more than the latest zn producer on the block... In fact this would definitely help explain why the sp didn't drop like I expected it to, on the release of announcements about the demo plant having further delays in reaching steady state... In fact when the plant finaly did reach steady state there was no price action at all...

Prior to the polymetals JV Intec was forecasting that zn production would not start until 2008, the Polymetals JV has been very good for intec shame I didn't realise this when the sp was still 11c

Tony.

 

[Sean K]

IMO trying to work out the market depth of INL is a waste of time... Believe me (and Kennas will remember) that I spent a lot of time back 6 months or so ago thinking it was going to retrace to 8c,
Tony.

It feels like 12 months ago Tony....

Thanks for the great posts.

 

[Moneybags]

Hi Moneybags, yes a big seller could be limiting things, but it depends on How quickly they need to divest the shares.... without knowing their time requirements I think it is a hard call to say whether or not this was capping the share price at 27c. If I had 39 Million shares to get rid of and 6 months to do it in I'd watch the sp like a hawk and only put in bids when things seemed to have stalled, and also only selling as many shares as were at the highest price point in the buy side queue... then again depending on their buy in price they might be making a very tidy profit at even 24c so who knows.

Tony.

Hi Tony / Wintermute,

Once again a great post........I'm thinking you should up that post count of yours for the benefit of all at ASF.

As far as a time frame for selling down the shares........I assumed it would have to be done fairly quickly as part of the agreement with RIO on the Mongolian project but then again I'm guessing there and that just wont do.

Cheers
MB

 

[wintermute]

Thanks Moneybags... I'll see what I can do but you should be aware that I'm pretty much still a newbie, have only been in the game about 18 months though I have certainly learnt a lot... (usually the hard way) in that time... INL I've watched and done a lot of research on, but it wasn't really till this morning that I realised that (it would appear) the Intec process really hasn't been factoring in the sp since before the polymetals JV announcement.... funny how something like that can escape you when you are focusing more on one aspect!!!

I've actually been amazed sometimes going back over and reading something a second time (usually a while later) just how much of a filter your brain can put on things.... (and I'm not just talking about the market)... quite often we interpret things how we want them to be rather than what is actually there staring us in the face!!! it is quite a scary thing to realise sometimes!!

I've no idea what precipitated that last comment, probably just the realisation that I've in a small way been blind to just how important the Polymetals J/V has been

Tony.