SDV - SciDev Limited

[nizar]

What you mean? If I start to see movements upwards..buy the stock?..then if I start to see movements down..sell them? I like to get in before any movement occurs.

So do I. And i did with several stocks this week.
Thats not my point though.

My point is: Whether production increase, earnings increase, industry outlook, management, new mine, its not relevant to YOUR PROFITABILITY.

The only thing that makes you money is when the share price goes up.

I used to do heaps of fundamental research and think along the same lines as you. Not anymore. All i need to know is that 3-letter code, and to see the price and volume trends, and thats sufficient to make a decision.

Let the market decide where it wants to take the stock.

INL was a good set-up when it broke above 20c and held there.

And no - You Dont have to sell them as soon as they go down. Look at the trend. But Have a trailing stop or some sort of protective mechanism to look in those profits.

ERN maybe you can improve on this next time instead of giving back 20% of your capital?

THis is a quote from yourself

every bit of loss helps for future gains

Maybe its the wrong attitude?

For me a loss is a MISTAKE, something which is not a positive but a negative, something which should be accepted will happen but should try not to repeat, i look at the trade, what did i do wrong, how can i improve next time to increase win%, etc, etc.

Just my

 

[nizar]

I will consider points to sell:
sell half 34, and the rest 39.5 (based on simple volume spikes)

Reminds me of something that Peter Lynch said in his book One up on Wall St about never setting price targets.

Wouldnt you hate for the price to hit 33.5c and then plummet

 

[juddy]

Nizar, it seems to be a recurrent theme in your posts that you pick parts out of other people's posts and then go about either correcting or attempting to educate them about your trading methodology which comes across as being the 'perfect method'. There would be many on here who have as much or more trading/investing experience than yourself and who may not need continual evaluation by yourself of their personal methods. Once or twice is understandable, but the volume of posts with this theme comes across as sheer pretentiousness. Well that is how I see it. Others may disagree.

 

[clowboy]

Out at 28c.
R/R of 3.5, happy with that.

Nizar, can you expand on this statment for me please?

R/R is Risk return?

Does this imply that you risked 2cps to make 7cps?


Thanx

 

[nizar]

Nizar, can you expand on this statment for me please?

R/R is Risk return?

Does this imply that you risked 2cps to make 7cps?


Thanx

Correct.
Return/Risk
Risk is the amount of money i would have lost if the trade had gone against me and i had been stopped out. Usually 0.5-2% of trading capital.

For example, if stop was set at $1000, say, from 50k (2%). That means i would have risked $1000 to get $7000 return.

I try to aim for R/R of 3-4 over the long term. Iv only just started and i realise we are in a roaring bullmarket.

With R/R of 3-4, and picking 50% winners, such a system would be nett very profitable.

Iv still got a long long way to go, and still very much at a beginner stage with my trading.

Juddy - thanks for your feedback. Just trying to create discussion.

 

[clowboy]

Nizar,

thanx for your response.

I really wish we wernt in a roaring bullmarket so that I could see results in a bear market.

My bigest fear is that it is only a bull market that keeps me floating.

a 50% win loss ratio with 3+ R/R would abviously be very profitable and anyone with those stats would be laughing.

The trouble I seem to have with R/R is forward projecting.

I got a little confused in Nick radges book with this regard.

Any R/R W/L ratio's I come up with are from backtesting which means that any forward trading is done on probable numbers.

Am I geting confused or is this the reality?

 

[chris1983]

So do I. And i did with several stocks this week.
Thats not my point though.

My point is: Whether production increase, earnings increase, industry outlook, management, new mine, its not relevant to YOUR PROFITABILITY.

The only thing that makes you money is when the share price goes up.

I used to do heaps of fundamental research and think along the same lines as you. Not anymore. All i need to know is that 3-letter code, and to see the price and volume trends, and thats sufficient to make a decision.

Let the market decide where it wants to take the stock.

INL was a good set-up when it broke above 20c and held there.

And no - You Dont have to sell them as soon as they go down. Look at the trend. But Have a trailing stop or some sort of protective mechanism to look in those profits.

ERN maybe you can improve on this next time instead of giving back 20% of your capital?

THis is a quote from yourself


Maybe its the wrong attitude?

For me a loss is a MISTAKE, something which is not a positive but a negative, something which should be accepted will happen but should try not to repeat, i look at the trade, what did i do wrong, how can i improve next time to increase win%, etc, etc.

Just my

When did you get in on intec Nizar? I mean its great your making a profit. My percentage gain atm is 100% profit. If you got in a week ago..youve done well...but with research and holding you can also do well...It actually means I pick the stock before most investors..and before that initial movement in sp occurs. Im expecting a 300% gain off initial investment. I havnt been holding long either. Your method can hit you tax wise..buying/selling/buying/selling. I'm always thinking about tax. My method minimizes tax and also brings great returns. Just different methods really.

3 of my stocks are greater than 100% return atm..and AOE are another one close to 100%..all picked before movement in SP.

ERN are one I'm waiting for..we will give it 2 months and we will see what happens. Ive done the research into their grounds..their market cap..and they have a lot of room to move. Thats only my opinion though.

I dont have a protective stop...you saw me hold strong with GDN when they went down into the low 40's...I didnt sell because the research and messages didnt tell me too. Glad I didnt sell aswell. If anything I sell half..or sell enough to cover initial investment...then I let the rest run..especially if I believe in them. I might sell half of my inl..but not just yet..they have been waiting for the time to be noticed..that time has come..the potential is there. They have more to go yet imo.

 

[tech/a]

Think Nizar is pretty excited that he has found an alternative to Pouring over fundamentals.He's obviously had some success.

Chris too is very good with his fundamental analysis and does well.

Being purely technical and with my involvement in the Fundamental threads of a few stocks,it was and is my intention to introduce an alternative which could perhaps be adopted by some Fundamental traders as an adjunct to their trading.

I guess tolerence for those who dont trade as Nizar and I do is possibly needed from both of us.

 

[Accaeric]

Reminds me of something that Peter Lynch said in his book One up on Wall St about never setting price targets.

Wouldnt you hate for the price to hit 33.5c and then plummet?

As you mentioned, you'd like to keep reward/risk of 3-4. that is involved price target, isn't it? Definitely, stop-loss and price target are commonly used by many investors.

If you are a pure long-term investor likely Warren Buffett, INL won't be appearing in your portfolio. Majority of traders involved INL have been named as speculators. I don't like this word

In fact, financial market would have not been thriving if there were not speculators which create high liquidity.

In terms of tech analysis, a lot of methods such as Elliott Wave, MACD, RSI, MA, based on past info, likely prove they are sort of helpful to forecast sp. and there are also a range of software on the basis of one of them attempting to predict future direction.
If those are a hundred percent working, every one would be a billionaire. That's why I don't believe those stuffs completely, but have to know about them.

 

[chops_a_must]

I guess tolerence for those who dont trade as Nizar and I do is possibly needed from both of us.

I don't think it's that.

It's just there is a mixture of traders and investors on this site. Some people dont really care if the SP moves, or whatever, that's not their objective, but others do. And it's hard to know who is in what category.

 

[moses]

NOTHING gains 10% a month consistantly Moses. You better sell now if that's what you're after, and stick to 10% a year in a managed fund. (even that doesn't happen) Expect every stock to go up, down, sideways, and go bust at times....but NEVER consistantly up. If you find one that has done that month on month and will in the future please let me know. Even in the bull market we have had over the past 3 years you will not find one I reckon. Good luck!

That was the point. Nothing rises consistently. Thats why we trade isn't it?

If I found a stock that rose 10% a month every month I wouldn't be trading.

 

[tech/a]

NOTHING gains 10% a month consistantly Moses

Are you sure?

 

[Sean K]

Are you sure?

Did it go up 10% in June?

Am I sure? No. But I did say happy to be proved wrong, or to be provided with an example. Keep em comming.

If anyone can provide me with a stock that goes up 10% a month, great. Let's all invest in it, and you can chip in to buy my boat. Our boat.

 

[tech/a]

Kennas

Trick is to find it in July!!! No I didnt!!

 

[Novski]

Didn't it come up on your radar of software, tech? Shouldn't a move such as the one this made in July have lit up 'buy'? I'm just curious.

 

[tech/a]

I do remember seeing it come up a couple of times.
But never traded it. There have been others as well.

I dont get on them all only trade 2 max 3 at anyone time and if I know I'm going to be out or to busy to watch then I wont trade short term at all.
Screen is on my desk but there does come times when I have to actually be pro active in my own company.

 

[nizar]

I reckon this one still has more in it.

The breakout moves in WMT, AUZ, AIM, DYL, MLS, etc, etc, all lasted for 3-4 days.

 

[nizar]

Kennas

Trick is to find it in July!!! No I didnt!!

That volume spike and big price rise in 2nd week of August is a classic BUY signal.

Really did a runner this one.

 

[Sean K]

Didn't it come up on your radar of software, tech? Shouldn't a move such as the one this made in July have lit up 'buy'? I'm just curious.

Have a look back though the thread. The breakout was picked up by good old human eye.

 

[chris1983]

Article from miningnews.net. Link below. Article posted below. Good read for Intec holders

http://www.miningnews.net/sectionstory.asp?sourceid=c48

"INTEC and private miner Polymetals will be in a festive mood today, following the official start of commercial production of bulk zinc concentrate at the Hellyer zinc concentrate project in northwestern Tasmania, which is expected to generate revenue of $128 million annually.

The formal start follows a six-month probationary period where all equipment and infrastructure were commissioned, and the plant is now operating at 80% capacity of the planned 65,000 tonne per annum "base-case" projections.

Intec said a dredge was collecting 130t per hour of tailings, grading an average 2.2% zinc and increasing with depth, while the mill's flotation efficiency was increasing through 65% of the targeted zinc recovery from the reground tailings to the bulk zinc concentrate.

Hellyer's concentrate storage shed currently has a stockpile of some 800t of "in-spec" product grading at 41% zinc, 10% lead and 200 grams per tonne silver. Daily trucking of the stock to Intec's 8000t export storage bay at Burnie port will start soon with monthly shipments to start early in January.

The majority of the bulk zinc concentrate will go to leading Chinese smelters that have signed offtake agreements for more than two thirds of the 65,000tpa production at Hellyer, with the same smelters and others showing strong interest in the remaining 20,000tpa of concentrate.

Intec said at current metals prices, the US and Australian dollar exchange rate and "base-case" throughput, the total project is forecast to bring in annual revenue of $128 million, and earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation of $70.5 million.

The joint venture agreement has officially been activated today and will see both Intec and Polymetals jointly fund Hellyer operations along with joint receipt of revenue, and includes Intec's right after four years of operations to acquire a $1 million stake in Polymetals.

The Hellyer operation was previously operated by Western Metals before closing in 2000.

Shares in Intec climbed 1.5c to trade at 24.5c this morning."