SDL - Sundance Resources

ocelot said:

well its broken the .40c mark alot of trades today. I have started to see alot more press about this project. I think the word is getting out again about this one. I doubt it will be .50c before Feb.

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84 million trades, something is definitely brewing, i may be optimistic but my 50c by x-mas I believe could happen, we will see...

polska said:

84 million trades, something is definitely brewing, i may be optimistic but my 50c by x-mas I believe could happen, we will see...

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Yep, big volume like this almost always precedes anns!! Looking forward to confirmation of the Mbalam Convention which will mean Cam Gov gets to tip in approx $100m for their 10% share. Bargain for them really given the likely outcome of a project valued upwards of $5bn. Here's hoping

41's now, just need that ann. to get this one flying, hopefully a deal concerning the JV is well progressed

0.43's bring on the 50c by x-mas! Let's hope for a good week fellow SDL holders!

SDL is looking really strong imo...
have jumped on board, if it breaks through the 40 cent range it could be back to 2007 ~!

adobee said:

SDL is looking really strong imo...
have jumped on board, if it breaks through the 40 cent range it could be back to 2007 ~!

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Don't you mean 50, I entered at 31, looking good. 50 by Christmas looks possible. I appreciate the insight of these forums.

Why is everyone expecting .50c by Christmas is there something we haven't been told. Or is there real facts, so far there hasn't been any announcement.

This is some speculation courtesy of 'Wiley' on another forum, I know still no cold hard facts and just rumour, but certainly puts a smile to face

From researching on the Net, I am almost sure that Wuhan Iron and Steel( which seems to be at least half the size of BHP) will be involved in a big way with SDL. WISCO officials have stated within the next 5 years, WISCO will be making AFRICA their support base for supply of minerals and they intended to play a big part in SDL.

...............“With an average annual production of 30 million tons, WISCO ranks seventh among steel makers in the world on a production scale. However, WISCO receives 80 percent of its iron ore from overseas and is facing a survival crisis caused by the spike in iron ore prices on the international market.”

“Zou Can, vice director of the department of iron ore and non-ferrous resources division of WISCO International Resources Development and Investment Company, subsidiary of the Chinese steel producer Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation (WISCO), revealed at the International Geology Conference held on 18 NOVEMBER, 2010.
Mr Zou said that WISCO would establish a coalition including financial sectors, infrastructure contractors, steelmaking plants and traders to propel the development of the Mbalam iron ore program.”................

From this week, my guess, is that investors, big and small will accumulate more shares because SDL is getting more interesting.
Within a short time, ( how soon?) we will know more about exactly what is going on, I believe. Both parties have gone to and from Perth and China a few times.

............Wed 8th Dec,2010 The Australian
Riversdale Mining Executives will meet potential partner Wuhan Iron and Steel this week over a $1 Billion coking coal ground and equity deal, despite mounting speculation Riversdale will be bid for by a big miner.................

RIV/WISCO Talks may have finished or still going. My bet is that WISCO will also meet SDL Board today or tomorrow. Will the talks end with signing the Partnership? Or maybe fine details to be worked out. I believe that and other news- offtake, resource results, port and rail report, will come soon alright.
SDL Office is less than 1 km away from Riversdale Office.

ocelot said:

Why is everyone expecting .50c by Christmas is there something we haven't been told. Or is there real facts, so far there hasn't been any announcement.

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I would suggest there is alot we havent been told...
but this is definetly heating up..

ocelot said:

Why is everyone expecting .50c by Christmas is there something we haven't been told. Or is there real facts, so far there hasn't been any announcement.

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Hey ocelot
There is a distinct possibility of news, although no certainty about which of the likely developments will come out, eg Mbalam conv, partnerships, etc.

Simply from the way the SP is tracking, with buy side stacking up and sellers drying up, the pressure is upwards and chartwise there is only resistance at 40c from way back in June 2008 which appears to be yielding to that pressure. Above that, next resistance is mid 50s from the lopsided head and shoulders formed in mid 2007.

So clear air until the 50s IMO...although I've seen SDL buy/sell look like this recently and watched it switch rapidly back to more sellers than buyers, so anything can happen

I suspect that George Jones will be content to just sit back and let the SP rise - IMO he is very reluctant to give away more than 50% and at this rate may get away with considerably less. I don't think WISCO is the only potential player in this game. Potential major Fe Ore producer's at sub 20 dollars a tonne are very light on the ground. I have been in this from 8 cents and adding along the way. Maybe the only real spanner in the works would be a revolution in Cameroon and they seem to be a very stable government! I have less faith in the locals in Canberra.

We can all speculate...... But there are, at this stage ,more buyers
than sellers......LOTS MORE.

For now Iron Ore is the best game in town to be in and it will be as
long as everyone in China wants a fridge and a car.

The Bull ride of our lives is ABOUT to begin! Hold on!!!!

Gecko said:

We can all speculate...... But there are, at this stage ,more buyers
than sellers......LOTS MORE.

For now Iron Ore is the best game in town to be in and it will be as
long as everyone in China wants a fridge and a car.

The Bull ride of our lives is ABOUT to begin! Hold on!!!!

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Haha thats the most intense ramping first post ive seen in a while. I think that SDL is still undervalued, but not by a huge amount, pretty sure most people will be expecting a drop then a lull after this recent rally.

TabJockey said:

Haha thats the most intense ramping first post ive seen in a while. I think that SDL is still undervalued, but not by a huge amount, pretty sure most people will be expecting a drop then a lull after this recent rally.

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I think that will definitely be the case, if it simply continues as a "newsless" rally- the Convention announcement, etc, could change that, though. It's all speculation at this stage - but we'll be in a different position by the end of march, I would think.

thestevo888 said:

I think that will definitely be the case, if it simply continues as a "newsless" rally- the Convention announcement, etc, could change that, though. It's all speculation at this stage - but we'll be in a different position by the end of march, I would think.

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Some of the momentum has definitely been lost, but today's close at 0.45c was a good sign and I'm expecting a drop to 0.40c before an ann. is made, then it will rally like no tomorrow

kennas said:

I've really got no idea how you've come to 4.95 with all those calcs, so you've achieved your aim.

5.5b shares @ $4.93 = $27b MC or thereabouts.

That's when they're actually delivering the 40Mt isn't it?

FMG currently about $14b MC I think.....already producing about 40Mt, aiming for 150Mt.

Something's amiss here

Hmm

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Hi Kennas,

1. FMG has $21b MC rather that $12b (3.1 bln outstending x 6.7 it is c.a. 21Bln
2. Thay produced in fiscal year 2010 38 MT (FY 2010 starts in JUN 2009 and the ore prices where much lower)
3. Cost on production in Africa will be much lower than in Australia
4. for FSC PE ratio is 35 ..... (ROR ca 3%, but no dividende...)

So look just for pattern.
1. Similar size of production
2. Better market condition (ore price)
3. Lower costs

From other perspective just compare characteristics of deposits...
And look into FSC financial report

jonojpsg said:

Essentially kennas it's just a simple assumption of PE of 10 based on earnings of $2.7bn, or $27bn MC. When you look at the comparison with FMG it shows potentially that FMG is pretty seriously undervalued? Surely FMG must be raking it it atm, costs of $50/t and price of $150/t giving them $4bn a year AND as you pointed out, looking at upping that to 150MT a year

Altho when you look at FMGs financials, their net profit last year was only $700m, so in reality SDL will probably end up well below the $2.7bn estimated by zmalecki. Let's say more like $1bn a year (lower costs than FMG) then a PE of 10 would make their MC $10bn with 5.5bn shares gives a price target of $1.80 by 2014 which is more like it.

I'm happy to aim for $0.75 by mid nxt yr myself

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Hi jonojpsg

The real true is not as simple. You made assumption that in price $150/MT FMG would do $4bln.
Your assumption is really not correct.
Please keep in mind that FR for 2010 covers period 2009.06 - 2010.06 and if you look into the iron ore market in this period http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html
than you will understood why is not like that.

Second you do not know what kind of contract FMG has (and why is looking for other markets...).
Of course we do not know how will Sundance act in area of contract e.t.c.
In consequence I think that real price will be closer to $5 than to $2.

And regarding undervaluation of FMG ... it was undergraduate , and market already discounted that (P/E ration 35 is rather high)

Regarding target time line I agree with you.

closed at 0.485c today, highs of 0.495c, my 50c by x-mas wish is looking likely

ok I was wrong we did get to .50c before xmas. THere must be something I don't know. I did read on another forum that RIO is "apparently" looking seriously into SDL. All rumors.

zmalecki said:

Hi jonojpsg

The real true is not as simple. You made assumption that in price $150/MT FMG would do $4bln.
Your assumption is really not correct.
Please keep in mind that FR for 2010 covers period 2009.06 - 2010.06 and if you look into the iron ore market in this period http://www.steelonthenet.com/commodity_prices.html
than you will understood why is not like that.

Second you do not know what kind of contract FMG has (and why is looking for other markets...).
Of course we do not know how will Sundance act in area of contract e.t.c.
In consequence I think that real price will be closer to $5 than to $2.

And regarding undervaluation of FMG ... it was undergraduate , and market already discounted that (P/E ration 35 is rather high)

Regarding target time line I agree with you.

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Well we have broken the 50 c ceiling today. I am with our swiss mate zmalecki. The SDL share price should be in the vicinity of $5 by 2014 - unless there is a consolidation, then it will be a derivative of the consol. or; unless SDL is taken over before?
I hope RIO do not buy out - because us share holders wont realise the full potential growth if that happens.

I am happy to wait to 2014 to get the massive capital gains.