This could be last chance to hope on board.
I like the spelling of "hop". Maybe it was the right choice of words.
SDL has recovered 170% since my buy followingthe tragic accident and that increase is due to the actions of the new board. I am a long term holder to the point where I suggest that it is fairly priced now. I expect there will be gradual increases as the steps towards production are successfully completed, however production is a long way down the track. Don't expect too much too soon. Patience should be rewarded but be prepared fo a possible slip between the cup and the lips as it were.
A lot is riding on where and at what conditions are encountered raising the capital required to comlpete the project and the politics that will be attached.
.Can some wise head tell me, though, what this company should be worth in today's market, when it is engaged in full scale production? (with or without the share consolidation, of course) Is the last post about a $15 post-consolidation sp about as high as it will go on its current resource estimates? I would have thought (and again, I stress newbie - don't hack on me too badly) that with an unconsolidated share base and in full production this would have the potential to go to $4 or more... or am I way off track?
Obviously the comparisons with FMG that the broker report of a few years ago brought up rely on a lot of variables..
Thanks Nioka. I musn't have expressed myself as clearly as I wanted to... it's been a long week.
I know there are risks associated with any resource company pre-production, which is why the sp is still under 30c. I suppose what I am curious to know is, if Sundance was in full production now, debt paid off, (as they are hoping it will be after 3-4 years of production) what its share price would be. For instance, all risks removed, favourable offtake agreements inked, etc would it be on a par with FMG?
Hey stevo, IMO IFFF SDL were in full production at 35MTpa right now even with a debt of 3.5bn which would assume they borrowed the full amount and did not issue any further shares, they would be valued conservatively (asuming a price earnings ratio of 5) at $3 per share.
This assumes $100/tonne (after cost of production $25/t) giving them $3.5bn a year - 25% tax and royalties brings that down to say $2.5bn - $1bn debt and interest repayments leaves $1.5bn a year net income. Multiply by 5 to get 7.5bn and divide by 2.7bn shares on issue - close to $3 anyway.
Still agree with nioka though - LOTS of water to flow under the bridge before that happens!! I reiterate my price target of 50c by March (assuming finalisation of financing etc.) - obviously a sucker for punishment coz I know someone will remind me of this if it doesn't happen
Would you say this would be a mid to long term investment? Having shares in SDL myself just want to gauge what others think?
Could be whatever you want it to be...if you bought at 17c a few weeks back and they go to 34c next week you can double your money in a couple of months and move on to something else. Alternatively, you can wait for another 6-12 months and they might double again? It's up to you
Personally, I'm in for as much as I can get until financing is finalised and construction starts then I'm out...I reckon there's a good possibility that laying 400km of rail through the deepest African jungle might just pose some interesting challenges
Re: Latest announcement.
SDL now has a Chinese Investment Bank/Securities company, CITIC Secuities, on the case. What happened to Deutsche Bank?
I was under the belief that DB would be finalizing things.
Perhaps the SDL`s thoughts are that CITIC would be better dealing with SDL`s Chinese contacts?
Any thoughts?
talktome
SDL has been pretty stable and lower volumes for the last few weeks.
I notice today there seems to be something going on.
The ASX is flat - but SDL is up 1.5 cents to 33 cents an volume has exceeded 40 Million so far.
Perhaps an announcement - or news of financial situation is getting around - speculation that something is due.
The timeline still says:
Nov - convention signing
Dec - finalise offtake contracts; secure project financing terms.
It is not too long to this target - hope they do deliver on it.
If so 33 cents will seem very cheap IMO.
SDL appointed a Chinese Government owned investment bank to negotiate financial deal with Chinese Government owned Banks and steel companies….Citic will maximize Chinese companies’ interests rather than SDL’s.
DB was appointed by the previous Board to maximize SDL’s interest. IMO, GJ really wants to get it done fast..so be aware for bigger dilution
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