SDL - Sundance Resources

Hi, I'm a newbie. I don't really know how this sharemarket works, but I do know how markets work. Seems to me after reading what y'all have been saying over the last 2 weeks is that you are trying to convince y'selves that you have invested in the right stock. While I agree with most of it, do ya think it's right to show that raw insecurity to others? Conversely, do y'all want outsiders to come in and push up the current bargain price? Cos when an outsider reads what y'all are sayin', he's gonna tell his friends, and then your opportunity for buyin' cheap stock is gone. Is that really what y'all want?

Hey Jewels, can you qualify/quantify your "feeling" that MOU is more difficult to obtain than previously thought? On what exactly do you base this feeling?

Two things, firstly the Mou was first touted over 12 months ago, and secondly at the AGM George Jones said it was a lot tougher than he thought, and when questioned about how long it could take by somebody he said don't hold your breath.

I agree with your sentiments, and at times this blogg does appear to be a Sundance Resources shareholders support group, however I really dont think that anything said on this blogg, or for that matter on any other blogg in Aus would have any effect on the share price.

I think there are a lot of people sitting on huge losses with SDL from 12 months ago when the merge with GBG was spruked, and the fact that the share price has plummeted so much has almost made them affraid to believe that it wont go ahead.

But at the end of the day it is going to be the 3rd or 4th largest Iron ore mine in the world that isn't owned by the big three, the 10th largest I.O. mine in the world, and when up and running account for 8% of Cameroons total GDP. Because of this It will also be eligaible for funding from various orginisations such as the world bank hopefully leading to reduced cost of capital. The cost of getting the ore out of the ground is so much lower than so many of it's competitors, That much ore is just way to juicy to be left in the ground.

It will happen, and when it does it will be worth a bucket load, the question is when?

If you are new to the share market and in WA read todays article in the West Australian by Marcus Padley, it's brilliant. Explains what the future may hold and how to take control of the market. Dont think the west put it on the web though.
Briefly he says set your stop loss at 5% (or whatever figure you are comfortable with) and keep the stop loss 5% the high each time. (set a rolling stop loss) . He is basically saying that in this market the only way to be in control is to become a trader, and not an investor.
But then again Marcus is a broker, and brokers will make far more money if investors become traders.

For a new guy to the market there are companies out there trading below there current cash value, so you are basically getting the company for free. You just have to do your own research and find out which ones they are.

And above all don't make any inveetment decisions based on what people say here.
Good luck Carbon Steel, I think you're entering the market at one of the most opportunistic times in history.

Jewels said:

I think you're entering the market at one of the most opportunistic times in history.

Click to expand...

Absolutely! I am really happy too with the way things are with the markets as I am in my early 30's, earning Yen and saving well.

C'mon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's about half time and SDL volumes seem on the 'higher than lately' side at a round 11 to 12 million. I don't have access to course of trades screen... if anyone does I wouldn't mind some feedback if indeed there are any strange parcels.

Justthinkin said:

It's about half time and SDL volumes seem on the 'higher than lately' side at a round 11 to 12 million. I don't have access to course of trades screen... if anyone does I wouldn't mind some feedback if indeed there are any strange parcels.

Click to expand...

Opening auction was strange. There were a number of large (multi-million) sell orders and plenty of buyers to soak it up. Since then, not much.... Maybe it has something to do with ASX/Futs arbing that TH was talking about.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean becasue I'm new to shares but I saw around 2 million shares going for 0.078c today.

MS+Tradesim said:

Opening auction was strange. There were a number of large (multi-million) sell orders and plenty of buyers to soak it up. Since then, not much.... Maybe it has something to do with ASX/Futs arbing that TH was talking about.

Click to expand...

Apparently the reason for the pre-open stacks this mornig was just the quarterly option expiry adjustments.

Thanks MS+ ... it is strange and I don't understand it either. I'll need to do a little more digging... as you say possibly just some form of SFE related cross??

Are concord dumping there share in SDL ?

Shareprice is struggling to hold up at the momment could go lower but long term it will be a winner.

I will be glad to see the MOU signed.

An interesting announcement this morning. Seemingly SDL ahve established with Government a Framework to conclude MOU in coming months. Extremely useful if agreement / understanding has substance. Most importantly, Cameroon Govt taking a greater interest (up to 25%) which is a very powerful/useful statement from SDL's perspective.

At face value, great news for SDL holders!!

Good luck today.

DYOR

Justthinkin said:

Thanks MS+ ... it is strange and I don't understand it either. I'll need to do a little more digging... as you say possibly just some form of SFE related cross??

Click to expand...

Many others at some stage on this thread have noted that SDL leaks like a sieve around announcement time. This could have been another example??? Not quite the same as a few other times but could be a reason....

I would have thought this would have been very good news for shareholders, but the market seems to be shrugging it's shoulders at the minute, with SDL trading currently at 7.9c up 1.28%.

Let's go through the announcement;

OK, so firstly there has been an agreement 'in principle,' which while is a very good step in the right direction, doesn't set anythnig in stone. The Government of Cameroon does however seem to be supporting the project quite well which to me is very encouraging.

The concessions that the Government seems willing to make can only be good news for SDL trying to find strategic partners / off-take agreements. Tax concessions, investment incentives, and equity support all seem like big pluses for the project in it's bid to be internationally competitive.

The way I read it, the guts of the announcement is on the second page. The Cameroon Government now has the right to obtain a further 15% of CamIron if it pleases. If this happens, the Goverment will increase it's holding to 25% of CamIron as it already holds 10%. What does everyone think about this?

I see it as a good thing from the point of view that they will have to contribute to the project financing (though I'm assuming only for the 15% not the full 25% which is a bit of a pity!).

It is also possibly a good thing for Sundance cash flow wise. The price of obtaining the 15% is 50% of the total costs of the project prior to funding of construction. Does anyone have a possible figure for this 50%? I might do some digging. In any event, it will help alleviate cash flow problems if of course the decison to buy the 15% comes before SDL needs to raise more funds.

One possible problem I see is that SDL's holding of CamIron is now down to 75%. How much more room to maneuver does this give the company negotiation wise regarding strategic partners / offtake agreements etc? I'm not 100% sure how they work to be honest, so any thoughts about this would be much appreciated.

I suppose when your analysing the possible Government purchase of 15%, the big question is what is 50% of the costs attributed to the project so far. We might have to shoot off some emails to get the answer.

TMM

My take is that it is on balance a good thing. I'm very encouraged that the Govt now has some skin in the game.

Re strategic partners and offtakers. I think it is really useful to consider them in isolation. I have in a past life seen too many deals become overly complex when you blend an equity position with an exclusive off-take arrangement.

Key offtake price ingredients include project commissioning risk and counterparty risk (incl credit). Fundamental to this project is the governments engagement/facilitation which I suspect would be an imperative to acheiving project commissioning. In this regard, the announcement I think is extremely valuable as SDL is negotiating off-take arrangements.

Logically, if robust offtake arrangements can be secured, strategic partners and financiers should logically glide into place.

Here's hoping. But I think 1 step at a time. Moreover, it's Xmas and unless there's another announcement in the next few days I doubt we'll see much movement. Possible media airplay over the weekend will give ita spurt on Monday.

Cheers

DYOR

"... Mbalam Convention...expected to be ratified....following the completion of the Project Feasibilty Study".

Does anyone know what the timetable is for the " Project Feasibilty Study", and what it entails exactly?

CarbonSteel said:

"... Mbalam Convention...expected to be ratified....following the completion of the Project Feasibilty Study".

Does anyone know what the timetable is for the " Project Feasibilty Study", and what it entails exactly?

Click to expand...

Hi all i could find was the statement by Don Lewis that the focus of 2009 would be the Feasibility study here; http://www.miningweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=74418&sn=Detail

$undancekid said:

Hi all i could find was the statement by Don Lewis that the focus of 2009 would be the Feasibility study here; http://www.miningweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=74418&sn=Detail

Click to expand...

Thank you $undancekid. A most informative interview. It appears that the market is absolutely off the mark with its' valuation of SDL @ $0.079 today!!
I had not realised how completely the fear factor has gained the high ground.:nuts:

I agree that the 8c the market has priced in is fairly cheap but it is still a long term speculative holding that most people in a market in this condition are not looking for.

I think its an interesting stock with a good long term outlook and that why ill be buying a few in the new year.

Please people, 'value' is not in the share price, it's in the market capitalisation verses assets and profit etc.

For everyone's assistance, maybe start posting up the sp AND the market cap for comparison with other IO developers.

cheers.