SDL - Sundance Resources

[waterford]

Did I say I didn't make assumptions? Don't think so!

There was no intention on my part to harm anyone, if any investor out there is running off to buy SDL share on my posting then they are a tad foolish, not even I, a dumb beginner would do that!

I am very keen on SDL & my enthusiasm was evident, I do not, or was I intending to influence a potential buyer or seller of SDL script

Deleted this section, my lawyer isn't present

Yes I am new here as you are no doubt aware, I made a mistake, it's no crime & I have read your comments & taken all on board. However we all make mistakes, or have I met the perfect pair? I am going to admit, that on the evidence as you are presenting it I made an error of judgement & wording, but please I want to see the New Year in, can we postpone the execution till January 2nd 2008, I want to be over my hangover & face you with a clear head.

If I have any other readers out there who want to have a go, do it with panache, please! I am badly bruised

Now can both of your sit back, relax & enjoy what is left of today.

Cheers

 

[nikki]

the real question is do you buy now or not.

held 0.4 really well but seems to be struggling below 0.42 resistance.

sdl has clearly gone below its 200DMA which means it is going to do its bearish dance until some news comes our way.

i am skeptical of 200 DMA's because SDL is still above it if you took out the GBG/SDL merger period.

my guess is it might consolidate above 0.4 for a little while like it has done in the past.

a lot of the buying today seems to be from smaller players who obviously sold today or yesterday and trying to get back in thinking it is going up again?????

any thoughts? we have no news to talk about except the SP - have to say this silence treatment really annoys me???

 

[tronic72]

There are better (more secure) bargains to be had today. The bluechips are available at much better prices with the added security that comes with buying premium shares. I'd be staying clear of more speculative shares while the market is in free fall.

Note: Have purchased ZFX today

 

[nikki]

hey tronic72,

which free fall were you looking at. i only saw a bungy jump that must have hurt a lot of scared people this morning.

IMO today was one of those remarkable buying opportunities that has come once before in August and i starred both of them in the face and decided to let fear win?

why is ZFX any better than a small cap - i thought ZFX was on a down trend just like SDL. if the commodities bubble is going to go bust then the big and small will go with it.

they are both single commodity stocks. ZFX's volitality is just as high because of the movement of the zinc price. it has cash in hand just like sdl and is not relying on debt for the moment anyway???

if i was going safe i would buy BHP which does not rely on a single commodity price or 1 or 2 mines to be profitable - less volitality in short and long term IMO.

the real difference between SDL/ZFX and other single commodity stocks is IMO their management of risk. obviously, SDL is still trying to prove it has anything but other than that

my questions are not rhetorical and i am just trying to learn from others by thinking aloud.

cheers tronic72 and i hope you bought ZFX @ the open today?

 

[tronic72]

Hmm. Sounds like someone's got their Nikkis in a knot? (If I've misread you, which is easy to do on forums, then my bad).

The reason I "suggested" that the Blue Chips were a better buy in the current market, is that Speculative Stocks (which SDL is) tend to drop further than Blue Chips. (as a rule)

If you look at ZFX you'll see it's hit resistance at todays prices three times this year. SDL on the other hand is not far from it's recent highs (over a longer time line) and it is also a "high risk, high return" share as stated on numerous occasions in the recent GS report which recommended SDL as a buy.

In regards to your comments on the bubble bursting; which company will be worth nothing if it bursts? The company that is and will continue producing or the company that hasn't produced anything? Who would want to invest in a speculative mining company if the bubble bursts? (your suggestion not mine).

For the record I have no problem with SDL at all. If you look through this thread, you'll see I've held them up until recently.

Finally, I purchased ZFX at 12.4 which is the price it sat on for most of the day, so I figured it had hit a point of resistance. I mentioned it in the interests of disclosure. I don't remember recommending it???

 

[nikki]

i think we misread each other? i was not suggesting that you were down ramping SDL or suggesting we buy ZFX - i was debating the pros and cons and speculative vs blue chips? nothing intended in my comments even if it might come across that way?

glad for you that you bought ZFX at what might be its lows - lets hope this friday another rumour re a merger begins?

sure if our bubble's burst someone who can sell a commodity is likely to do better than those who hope to sell in 2011? perhaps SDL might have to sell the land to the chinese if things to wrong?

good luck with your trading?

 

[tronic72]

i think we misread each other? i was not suggesting that you were down ramping SDL or suggesting we buy ZFX - i was debating the pros and cons and speculative vs blue chips? nothing intended in my comments even if it might come across that way?

glad for you that you bought ZFX at what might be its lows - lets hope this friday another rumour re a merger begins?

sure if our bubble's burst someone who can sell a commodity is likely to do better than those who hope to sell in 2011? perhaps SDL might have to sell the land to the chinese if things to wrong?

good luck with your trading?

Sorry about that.

It happens on the web sometimes. Unfortunately there's no sarcasm or tongue-in-cheek button on the keyboard so it's hard to tell. I think both ZFX and SDL are both decent shares but for different reasons.

Good luck with you also.

 

[tronic72]

Just a quick update

Sold ZFX today and bought ANZ. But I am looking at SDL again. This is where I saw it dropping. That was the point I was trying to make. I thought SDL would continue to slide. It's down 20% from last week and it GS's recommendation I think SDL represents even better value at these prices.

 

[tronic72]

Did I say I didn't make assumptions? Don't think so!

There was no intention on my part to harm anyone, if any investor out there is running off to buy SDL share on my posting then they are a tad foolish, not even I, a dumb beginner would do that!

I am very keen on SDL & my enthusiasm was evident, I do not, or was I intending to influence a potential buyer or seller of SDL script

Deleted this section, my lawyer isn't present

Yes I am new here as you are no doubt aware, I made a mistake, it's no crime & I have read your comments & taken all on board. However we all make mistakes, or have I met the perfect pair? I am going to admit, that on the evidence as you are presenting it I made an error of judgement & wording, but please I want to see the New Year in, can we postpone the execution till January 2nd 2008, I want to be over my hangover & face you with a clear head.

If I have any other readers out there who want to have a go, do it with panache, please! I am badly bruised

Now can both of your sit back, relax & enjoy what is left of today.

Cheers

Waterford,

Just read your post. I see you are new here so I thought I'd make a suggestion. Your post is obviously in response to someone else's post. Just a tip, when doing this, it's a good idea to press the "quote" button instead of the reply button. That way we know who you are talking too.

Good luck with your trading.

PS I know we could sift through the past posts to try and figure it out but it's much easier if you quote the original post.

 

[nikki]

hi Tronic72,

sorry if you took a loss on ZFX - i still think it is one of those really undervalued stock with everything going for it in the long run!!!

re SDL - i think it presents value @ .4 but for several reasons i would not enter the trade for short term @ the moment:

- no expected news except drilling results which will get released @ end of january in the quarterly report.
- JORC not due until middle of next year
- the risk of a further move down to 6000 (or below) for XJO and XAO is high and SDL will follow without news comming out. the drivers for the move down in the indexes might not be the financials but perhaps BHP/RIO. BHP has now broken $40 and might go further and take other mining stocks with it (mining index looks seriously bruised but with nothing to suggest that the downward move is not going to continue - esp. if copper is breaking support levels).

if you look at the date that institutions (Sarich and Talbot) bought into SDL @ 0.4 you will notice it was straight after the first time that SDL resisted going below 0.4 - i.e. not a real test of 0.4 if you ask me. obviously management convinced them that 0.4 was good value and support.

institutions could not have bought that many SDL shares @ 0.4 without running the SP up significantly. given the number they were buying it was good value for them at that time - Talbot has not managed to buy too many in the low 0.4's because buying millions kept pushing the price upwards of 0.5.

i think the interest @ 0.4 (or high 0.3 is huge) but if it goes lower all those holding huge quantities from earlier this year will start selling and taking the SP with them - this move could be significant IMO given the number of shares on offer (esp. when traders were buying them @ 0.1-0.2 not long ago). given that you can CFD the stock with 10% margin you will also have people shorting it once it goes below support @ 0.38 taking the SP with it.

the RSI has actually gone up since the other day when it hit 0.4 meaning that it is now not as oversold as it was a few days ago. if it continues to consolidate around 0.4 then the potential to go lower increases esp. if the indexes correct further.

re the trading in the past few days: small buyers (i.e. in the 100,000) were comming back in. i suspect many of these are people who sold in the low 40's (esp. when it went down to 0.39) and now think they did the wrong thing and are trying to buy back in - esp. when the stock hit 0.43 the other day. i.e. big money has shown no interest in SDL @ the moment @ these prices.

two factors suggesting that an entry might be good @ the moment:
- asx200 listing might create interest, esp. if one or two bigger players buy upwards of 1 million shares. this in itself will manipulate the SP so people will think something is happening!
- the Goldman Sachs report clearly makes SDL seem like it is value for money (in the short and long term) if you compare it to other ASX200 listed iron ore companies.

now, if the SP goes up to 0.5 in the next day & you chose not to enter the trade then blame it on DYOR clause in this note

i am going to sit on the sidelines - i have made and lost truckloads on SDL and am sure of one thing by now: if i can buy 300,000 of them @ $0.17 i might hold onto them for a few months longer than the last time i had them @ that price.

cheers

 

[nikki]

my assessment of SDl's listing as a ASX200 stock was totally ****!!!!!!!! did anyone see the closing auction today - that was beyond spectaculor??? i have watched the closing auction for this stock for the past 6 months and have never seen anything like this?

over 14.5 million stocks changed hands at the close with 1 buyer bidding for 4.5 million stocks???????

maybe i will buy back in @ .5 tommorrowwwwwwwwww - sore head?>>> outchchchchchhchcch . . . . . . . . . . .

 

[daggs]

I was watching at close too, that sure was something else!
The thing that I couln't understand was that there was a huge amount of of orders on both sides. Definitly something going on, but why so many sell orders in the mix?
Oh well, should spark some interest Monday anyhow

 

[nikki]

hi daggs,

i thought the same - i.e. why all the selling given the rest of the days action!!! there was 1 person who sold over 5 million? surely if you have that many you would not be selling @ .43 when you could clearly see the interest from buyers??????

looked a bit like telstra shares during closing auction?

there was an after market sale of 7.8 million as well. it must be the same broker doing a cross trade or something?????

 

[daggs]

I wondered the same thing about cross trades, but I would have thought there are better ways for these deals to take shape other than a closing auction, then there,s those three buyers left over wanting 1.7mil shares.

A "please explain" from the ASX followed by a trading halt on Monday would see a smile on my face

 

[nikki]

ok. my theory about friday's closing auction!

those who were shorting the market were forced to reveal themselves because those who were ready to push up looked like they were going to win?

i was wondering what the strong resistance was when the stock looked like it was going to go up above .42 - if you have bought 5 million sdl going short then clearly you will sell enough at .42 to keep reinforcing the resistance and try to get rid of stock at around .4 or lower if you can. this explains why someone would suddenly dump a stack of sdl at .405 or .4. it explains why the sp managed to stay at around .405 even though the overall market had gone up 1% by midday?

so, the trend has clearly turned around because a huge number of holders are going long and they will do whatever they can to push the sp up as far as they can - i.e. buy more when it matters or counts. i also assume that if the index has reversed trend then the automated computer buying of asx200 stocks will reinforce the move upwards from monday onwards?

the volume was too high for insiders trading on news of some kind (IMO obviously). also the after market trading was portfolio swaps which looks more like short swapping with longs, etc.

so, if i am right i cannot believe how stupid i was not to buy when the overall index had changed trend but SDL was still testing its 0.4 support?

merry christmas to anyone who has read this far?

 

[nikki]

my assessment of SDl's listing as a ASX200 stock was totally ****!!!!!!!! did anyone see the closing auction today - that was beyond spectaculor??? i have watched the closing auction for this stock for the past 6 months and have never seen anything like this?

over 14.5 million stocks changed hands at the close with 1 buyer bidding for 4.5 million stocks???????

maybe i will buy back in @ .5 tommorrowwwwwwwwww - sore head?>>> outchchchchchhchcch . . . . . . . . . . .

does this forum have an automatic editing mechanism.

i had actually spelled out S**H**I**T but it was replaced by ****. hold on, i will try again: ****
wow - it did it again. how cool - my language is automatically cleaned

 

[tronic72]

does this forum have an automatic editing mechanism.

i had actually spelled out S**H**I**T but it was replaced by ****. hold on, i will try again: ****
wow - it did it again. how cool - my language is automatically cleaned

Glad I bought in at .40 I read all your reasons for NOT buying but I purchased anyway. Personally I think you over complicated things. .43 is still a decent price. I might put another buy in at .42 for Monday

My reason for buying was the share has dropped 20% over the past week and I saw no reason for the SDL slump to continue after the market turned around. Same company and keep in mind the recent GS buy recommendation with a 12 month forcast around $1. Remember, this share was at .6 only a month ago. That's a 5o% decrease in the share price.

I purchased for a short term profit only. Hopefull I'll get my 15% next week.

Merry Christmas.

 

[nikki]

good call tronic72.

i agree about the over-complicated analysis but that was to justify for myself why a move downwards was strongly possible if the XJO and XAO kept correcting.

unfortunately, i was not paying attention to the overall market to notice the huge surge of buying interest on friday afternoon. i would have bought in as well if i was a bit more on the ball. instead i busy swearing at the ADY sp that goes down when the market is going up and surges up when the market goes down

i suspect it might open @ .45 or higher on monday and if i am lucky there might be some few million sellers around who might still have to sell shorts or something !!!!

merry christmas to you as well.

 

[tronic72]

good call tronic72.

i agree about the over-complicated analysis but that was to justify for myself why a move downwards was strongly possible if the XJO and XAO kept correcting.

unfortunately, i was not paying attention to the overall market to notice the huge surge of buying interest on friday afternoon. i would have bought in as well if i was a bit more on the ball. instead i busy swearing at the ADY sp that goes down when the market is going up and surges up when the market goes down

i suspect it might open @ .45 or higher on monday and if i am lucky there might be some few million sellers around who might still have to sell shorts or something !!!!

merry christmas to you as well.

I "hope" you are right about the open but I'd be surprised if it goes up much higher than that and I wouldnt be surprised if it dropped during the day. That would be about 15% in two days which is a pretty big rise without any drops. Even at .45 it's still an OK buy compared to two months ago.

Good luck.

 

[Real1ty]

I have not read all of this thread so aplogies if this has been covered already.

Wasn't the .65c or whatever it;s high was when it was discussing a merger with GBG?

If so, it would be very realistic for it's share price to drop.

I only bring this up as in a lot of comments i have noted on SDL people always refer to it's high, but it's high is not a likely outcome atm, as there is little to drive the price.

If you want to make a comparison check CFE and the price during and after a Chinese investor was supposedly going to input 280Mill.

I don't hold atm, but do follow the stock, as it's an intriguing stock.