SDL - Sundance Resources

[nikki]

i think the move is a technical bounce which is being helped by the today's strong market and stronger metal prices overnight. i think gbg and mgx in particular hit support levels yesterday so this bounce is buyers comming back in.

i hope i am wrong and there is some nice announcement comming soon.

i am sure that takeover of MIS has brought some more attention back to the iron sector once again. MIS/MMX will now surpass SDL/GBG and become the second largest iron ore producer listed on the ASX. the MMX presentation re the takeover appears to copy the SDL/GBG presentation style and figures?????????

good luck to all of you hanging in with SDL/GBG

 

[Risky Trader]

By looking at the SP and mkt cap of MIS/MMX and comparing to SDL/GBG... It seem that SDL/GBG will overtake MIS/MMX when the production start to kick in. I wonder with 2 merger happening in the space of 2 months, will there be more merger of the other smaller producers... It seems to be the trend at the moment.

 

[gfresh]

Anyone knows what is the story with the 4 cents rise today? Did some information leak out?

I believe there is more on the plate that just the current high metal prices..

Some very large 1M+ orders today on the intraday.. somebody knows something Keep an eye on it..

 

[BigJohnny]

Anyone knows what is the story with the 4 cents rise today? Did some information leak out?

Cheers

The move with SDL going forward should mirror GBG, due to takeover arbitrage. SDL should keep roughly in line with GBG by a factor of 2, within the 0.5-1c range. So that if SDL is cheaper by 2c, you could short sell 1 GBG and buy 2 SDL, wait til merger is approved and match off the stocks. Also depends what probability u place on merger approval.

 

[adobee]

From the trend in buying and amounts yesterday I would expect something to be forth coming.. Similar patters and quantities in the past following someones slip of the tongue.. I sold out GBG however still holding SDL for this reason..

 

[AussiePaul72]

From the trend in buying and amounts yesterday I would expect something to be forth coming.. Similar patters and quantities in the past following someones slip of the tongue.. I sold out GBG however still holding SDL for this reason..

Well sooner or later the announcement will be forthcoming .... the very long waiting period doesn't seem to be doing anything for share holders confidence ...including my own ....
IMHO i still think it will be good news but the long waiting period finally got to me aswell (feeling a bit over exposed) and i sold out of SDL yesterday and did very nicely .....and just holding GBG now!

 

[nikki]

one thing i have noticed with the management is that they allow for some natural consolidation in the SP before making significant announcements. I saw today's share price and candle stick as indicating indecision - a balance between selling and buying. based on what they have done in the past this gives me reason to think that management will do something soon to renew confidence in the stock.

not sure if i am correct but their recent announcements in relation to the takeover came when the SP had peaked (at around 0.5) and was turning downwards on most technical analysis that i was looking at. i.e. MACD divergences for instance were great but the stochastics had turned around to overbought.

for some reason a lot of the announcements come around the middle of the month.

if i was managing a company I am not sure if i would want to release good announcements when markets are peaking. i.e. all markets are now peaking with the exception of the FTSE. this spells trouble to me and reason to consider selling at good peaks rather than keeping for long term. so, why make announcements that might bring in sellers.

AussiePaul, why would you keep you GBG instead of SDL shares - unless it is for tax reasons?

 

[Risky Trader]

I agree with AussiePaul, I had thought about bailing out on SDL just because, the waiting game has become a bit nerve wracking BUT I thought I give it till end of the week, since SDL have been kind to me last few months.. It would silly to throw in the tower now after 3 months waiting.... Good or bad, will ride out this annoucment anyway..

Anyone onto CHM ... it has been great stuff last few week...

Anyone know more about this particular stock.... beside it's coming out of administration....

 

[nikki]

I agree with AussiePaul, I had thought about bailing out on SDL just because, the waiting game has become a bit nerve wracking BUT I thought I give it till end of the week, since SDL have been kind to me last few months.. It would silly to throw in the tower now after 3 months waiting.... Good or bad, will ride out this annoucment anyway..

what da!! loyalty!! FMG has made 55000% in the past several years. i was thinking that 800+% for sdl is too much in one year and probably will not do much more.

then i thought about the crew they are using in cameroon to do their prefeasibility, etc. and got greedy with the imagery that was building in mind - could i be one of the few who holds on through all the volatility (including a crash next week). loyalty!!! stupidity!!! greedy!!! not knowing enough to make the make the right moves.

i am holding on but simply because i would have to give much of my gains to the federal government...........

 

[ta2693]

Why SDL in trading halt? I check the etrade and got something I feel very confusing? Does SDL have oil asset?

 

[grubadoo]

Did everyone get excited? Incorrect ASX code was posted.SEA and SDL are completely different companies.

 

[Piggy Bank]

Exactly one month since my last SDL post. I am still holding onto the stock...watching news, announcements and price movements carefully....not planning to sell until at least May 2008 to minimise capital gains tax liabilities but also hoping SDL will further blossom into a much more profitable longer term stock.

I know we are all still waiting for some drill results that heads in a positive direction towards a JORC-code compliant resource of >1 billion tones Fe. The question has been when this "expected" positive news will be released? Will it be before the "Investor Iron Ore Series in Sydney 16th October 2007" or before the "Mines and Money Conference in London 22 November 2007" or ever later?

Some promising interim news appears in a Broker Report by BBY Limited dated 26 September 2007 (post merger announcement) that has been posted on the SDL Website today.

(http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/documents/news/00222_BBY_Brokers_Report_26_Sept_07.pdf.)

Recommends BUY with a conservative 12 month price target of $1. The report body suggests the share price projection has been reached using a conservative methodology. It has also not fully taken into account the benefits of the SDL/GBG merger coming into fruition. Have a read of the analysis and look at the share price projection graphs over time. I am optimistic that a 12 month $1 price target is being "very" conservative!

 

[AussiePaul72]

AussiePaul, why would you keep you GBG instead of SDL shares - unless it is for tax reasons?

Hi Nikki ....... only reason is that i got in relatively early and have done very well on SDL and after feeling a bit over-exposed decided to unload and reap the SDL rewards. I'm holding onto GBG where i got on the train much later and in fact am still behind at this point
Does that make sense??

 

[nikki]

thanks piggy bank - good report and pleased to hear you are still holding on like me!! liked your thoughts re when they might release data!

i agree about long term prospects - i got tired of trying to beat SDL management in terms of SP movement. i.e. buying and selling and trying to predict when the next more up would be.

i guess consolidation time is really good for a stock because it gets rid of profit-takers and creates new support price for the stock that is more solid than if it took off without tracks!!!

AussiePaul - i would have thought that selling GBG with a loss would have given you a capital loss against your tax claims for the year. now you are in loss because of the tax you have to pay on sdl and losing on gbg because i assume you bought like many when it opened after going off the recent trading halts!!!

 

[AussiePaul72]

AussiePaul - i would have thought that selling GBG with a loss would have given you a capital loss against your tax claims for the year. now you are in loss because of the tax you have to pay on sdl and losing on gbg because i assume you bought like many when it opened after going off the recent trading halts!!!

Hi Nikki - very good point about the tax implications, i should have done exactly what you said........oh well thanks for the tip!

 

[greenfs]

Thanks Piggy Bank

Your report yesterday with the accompanying broker read is IMHO probably the most imformative post that I have seen to date on this Forum. Congratulation & keep up the good work.

For me it has confirmed that my resolution never to sell GBG is totally founded. I will continue to seek opportunities to top up on this holding as I will also continue to do with AED, my other current favourite stock

 

[nikki]

Thanks Piggy Bank

Your report yesterday with the accompanying broker read is IMHO probably the most imformative post that I have seen to date on this Forum. Congratulation & keep up the good work.

For me it has confirmed that my resolution never to sell GBG is totally founded. I will continue to seek opportunities to top up on this holding as I will also continue to do with AED, my other current favourite stock

hey greenfs - you are in the wrong thread!!!! does that mean you are giving your vote to the merger

agree with you re the report that Piggy Bank put up. i think it is the most realistic assessment i have seen. has anyone heard of this research firm?

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

SDL ..... will be alert for some positive news/moves,
around 16-17102007 ...

have a great weekend

paul




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[greenfs]

hey greenfs - you are in the wrong thread!!!! does that mean you are giving your vote to the merger

agree with you re the report that Piggy Bank put up. i think it is the most realistic assessment i have seen. has anyone heard of this research firm?

The research firm is up there with UBS - that is what makes it so impressive.

If anyone wants to have a bet regarding the outcome of the merger vote being negative, bring it on. I have will have plenty of real $$$ to say that it will proceed. When you have a common chairman for both entities, it is as good as a done deal.

There is probably a fair argument to suggests that there should NOW only be one thread for SDL & GBG holders from hereon in.

 

[hangseng]

When you have a common chairman for both entities, it is as good as a done deal.

To Jones credit he has separated himself from this matter. He clearly was a major part of orchestrating this outstanding arrangement but he now has no part in the decision process.

How do I know? I just do.

The shareholders will decide if this is a done deal.