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SDL - Sundance Resources

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alexc2005 said:
so I'm guessing you all class this share as severely undervalued if you are unhappy with making 25% overnight?
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How long have you been holding? SDL had a SP of 0.625 in January 2011 - they traded at around 50c 2 or 3 years ago if you check - 25% is only relevant to Friday close - not what they've been, what they should be, or what they could be.
IMO - cheers TU
 

its high was at .665. It would seem that Hanlong are taking advantage of the market sentiment at the moment. Great for Hanlong, not so great for Sundance shareholders.
 
snowking said:
its high was at .665. It would seem that Hanlong are taking advantage of the market sentiment at the moment. Great for Hanlong, not so great for Sundance shareholders.
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Thanks - I think I put in the "Open" - also went back to 2007 where it traded up to 0.80

Looking forward to next few weeks and beyond - I'm happy to sit and wait a few years for production to come on line - hopefully management don't cave and those that have held for a number of years, and those prepared to back the company can get to see where SDL can get to.
Cheers - TU
 
Maybe you guys should look at RCI to see how Chinese take overs go. When an Indian company was bidding for RCI the Chinese came in and made dummy bids to knock up the Indian one to about .515c which depended on due diligence. The Indians then walked away after due diligence and the the Chinese went dead silent. RCI fell down to .125c!! when the Indians walked away and whilst it was doing that a Chinese director - Wu Pun Yun increased his holding massively to 50.4%holding.
The Chinese came back after 6 months and made a hostile bid at 25c! They had to raise it to 30c because 25 was against the law!!! to come back so low so soon or something like that. They are now lapping up stocks at that level at present of 30c. RCI has asked it's share holders who hardly exist any more to reject it.

What will happen to Sundance? Don't know because nothing happens the way you think it will on the market. But, my guess is that, in the absence of a bid from a non Chinese inc company which is highly unlikely, gradual decline amidst sneaky, Chinese accumulation. Then in 6 months it might be worth taking a bite but the Chinese may be able to control through board arm bending and live monkey brain eating parties. So will not bother to do anything more.
 

Not holding at all sorry. Just been watching for the past few months.

So i guess i havent watched it come down.

Fair enough though.
 
High of 54 cents today with close at 52 cents.

AFA and others are reporting the rumour mill that XSTRATA may come in to play with a Hanlong (chinese 16% hloder) knock out bid.

Possibly a JV through to production in lieu of the (unpopular with LT holders) full 100% low ball 50c per share takeover offer by Hanlong.

The game of chess is going on in the back rooms. Lets hope for the best deal for LT retail shareholders in lieu of CHECKMATE by Hanlong who may end up with the biggest bargain of the decade if they are able to pull this low ball offer off.

 
Yesterday the Australian wrote of a possible bid from XSTRATA, and today they write that the chances of a rival bid are fading.

Both Sundance and Hanlong meeting with Cameroon president Paul Biya.

As a long term buyer of SDL I too hope for the best deal. Certainly the 50 cent price is waaayyyy too low.

Anyway, one thing about following SDL is that it is always interesting!
 
Sundance Resources

An alternate bidder will have to have very deep pockets after paying 1.5Billion and needing another 3 (+Blowout) Billion for development. Hanlons 18% holding will also be obstructive. To be fair to shareholders who are prepared to wait, SDL should take it's time and not rush into anything.
India and other developing nations need iron oar too and demand isn't going away soon. Combined financing would be more valuable to share holders over the longer term rather than being subject totally to merciless Chinese.
Xtrata would be an ideal alternate buyer for SDL. Did Xtrata announce they were not interested?
 
For some time now I have been saying that the expectations of a lot of SDL holders were unrealistic in placing a value on SDL. They continue to value it by relating the value to the value of FMG. That is not reasonable considering the timing of both projects, the need for considerable funds to bring the SDL project to production and the soverign risk.

The 50c per share offer is low ball but I have always considered that I would exit at 60c considering my investment was timely at 10.5c. Holding beyond 60c is a reasonable proposition but I consider I can find better investments than SDL at that value.

Not what most will want to hear but that is my opinion.
 
SDL looks to be running out of steam?? Volume down today compared to those of the last week, even when comparing only 1hr of trading. Could be that with no further news of alternatives to Hanlong, the speculators building the price beyond 50c are running out of patience??
 
Market Depth Refresh View: Price Detail | Order Detail
Buyers Sellers
No. Volume Price ($) Price ($) Volume No.
486 buyers for 32281890 units 810 sellers for 43627770 units
Loading Market Depth...
37 7,829,998 0.515 0.520 1,336,408 17
26 3,865,455 0.510 0.525 3,586,878 27
21 1,408,659 0.505 0.530 4,755,484 43
32 2,480,172 0.500 0.535 3,240,365 49
14 1,566,303 0.495 0.540 3,942,343 65
25 1,864,062 0.490 0.545 3,370,366 38
12 434,600 0.485 0.550 6,615,661 149
23 717,136 0.480 0.555 1,042,599 22
13 782,408 0.475 0.560 977,096 39
15 490,201 0.470 0.565 609,172 18

Just running out of sellers at low 50s - plenty lined up 0.55
 
Why do you place any weight at all on Market depth?

Those who want to sell will sell at market.
Those in the line up are mainly stops Stop buy or Stop sell which have a habit of migrating when levels are close or reached.
Its a bit like reading a shadow in my opinion.

SDL is at an interesting point and is likely to pull back before testing .65 in my view.
 
Does anyone think something positive will be announced soon?

All very very quiet at the momment?
 
LRG said:
Does anyone think something positive will be announced soon?

All very very quiet at the momment?
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Not a hope LRG. This 'micky mouse' board couldn’t find Africa on a map if it tried.

My questions would be:

1. You were expected to announce a partner by June 30th, or to put it another way, by the end of the 2nd qtr 2011. Why have you not, and when will you?
2. The cash offer - by Hanlong Group - well over 2 weeks ago has fallen a strange and very eerie deafening silence. Why has there been no update(s)? What is it that you are "looking into" with the proposed bid? Either you accept the offer - which you say undervalues the company - or you don’t! Why has there not been any market updates?
3. Are you continuing the "advanced" talks with potential partners, while you pull a fast one on shareholders in respect of the recent offer?
4. Were you aware of the Hanlong Group's moves before they were announced to the market?

Note: Of course they will answer NO, however the way this board, and previous one had been running this company it makes me wonder what they do and don’t know.

5. When will you update the market on the following:
a. At what point is those apparent "advanced" negotiations with potential partners?
b. What is happening with the "negotiations" with Hanlong group and will you be selling out this company for your 30 pieces of silver?
c. When - as you should have had them all by now - will you have the remainder of the 'permissions' in place to commence the project?

I would add I have noticed an interesting little holding increase of some institutions over the past 2 weeks. Is this because they are gearing for a blocking stake in SDL as they think something ‘fishy’ is about to come from this ‘unexpected’ approach by Hanlong Group?

Just my end of the week rant.
 
my answers.
1 - sundance hasn't announced a JVpartner because it hasn't got one. Observers have highlighted the following: why be JV partner for 2-3bil, when you could purchase sundance for 1.4bil?

2 - there have been minor updates, but not enough board commentary on the matter. either discussions are hot and they don't want to say anything for fear of jeopardizing any talks, or there isn't much more going on behind the scenes.

3 - SDL has said it is continuing talks with its other "potentials" as well as Hanlong, how'd you miss this? And the only "fast one" they're pulling over share holders is this: they're actually considering a take over - after long proclaiming that SDL is not for sale. hence the interest from potential partners can't be that strong!

4 - ... no idea.


5a - i like this question. IF there is interest from multiple potential partners, ideally (for SDL holders anyway) the board would disclose who they are and maybe even some finer details.

5b - there is a comment within the latest SDL report which says something along the lines of "would not consider a take over unless it was at least 20% higher (than the bid of 50c PS). This means the board is looking for 60c minimum.

5c - this question is also addressed somewhere. apparently the local government approvals are pending, in wait of SDL to receive approved financing...
... similarly, the approval of financing is apparently waiting for the government approvals. bit suss on this one.

oh, and i don't see how "little holding increases" from differing institutions could have much of a blocking effect. If anything they're waiting on some good news. imo.
 
could someone please shed some light as to how the SP has dropped to 46c, despite the company being virtually guaranteed at 50c minimum? good time to empty the pockets and get some more?
 
aman said:
could someone please shed some light as to how the SP has dropped to 46c, despite the company being virtually guaranteed at 50c minimum? good time to empty the pockets and get some more?
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You have to realise that for one thing, with this current crisis everyone is fleeing to liquidity at the moment.

Also you have to consider, the Mbalam project hasn't got funding and the green light to get the project up and running. If outlook appears bad, it may not even be developed at all.

My 2 cents
 
aman said:
could someone please shed some light as to how the SP has dropped to 46c, despite the company being virtually guaranteed at 50c minimum? good time to empty the pockets and get some more?
Click to expand...

There is no "guarantee" that the offer will stay at 50c. They could withdraw the offer although that isn't likely. However the chance that the offer could be increased is now highly unlikely. Luckily I sold the last of my SDL last week, I could see better returns from other shares available and there did not appear to be a rival bid coming along. Soverign risk always worried me with SDL. Many would have seen 46c now and in cash as better than a possible 50c somewher down the track
 
You could also look at BMN to get an idea of how Chinese raids go. BMN has a highly conditional offer of 61.5c on it and its trading today at.35c! The will Chinese examine every inch of the company with as much intimidation as possible which will likely go on for months according to the recent board announcement.
Who knows they may offer 25c after that. I have being buying that recently however so I must think it will happen.
China loves nuclear things!
 
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