Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Scalping Lynas experiment

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Exactly, no point selling if you expect to buy again at tomorrow's open.

SO, if I trade it for real, I will either trade every second day, or I will alternate with using FMG. Or, if tomorrow's open comes and the depth is telling me to buy at open (because I expect O==L) then I let it ride another day. For the purposes of this experiment, I'm selling at next Open.

Right now, the exit criteria could be a whole range of things, and what works best can be decided later on. If I can read the tape within the specified markers for my entry, then I can do a few tests and decide on the best exit criteria. The skill is all in timing the entry by reading the MD. And I don't know if I can do that yet.
 
The major problem I see is that your tape reading skills mean jack if holding overnight. Overnight moves have little to do with market action read from the tape the day before.

1 serious down night on overseas markets could cause serious problems as I can only really see smallish percentage returns from each trade.

Surely trading the SPI or one of the Asian indexes would give a better return? Without having to expose yourself to overnight risk. IE buy/sell on or near high/lows (pretty much same as you are saying you have the skill set to do here) and then sell on close.
 
You're right but I'm sticking with the original criteria for the moment nomore4s - next open sell, so as not to confuse things. This will still be profitable to the tune of 50-100+%, if my timing is correct, regardless of any overnight shocks.

In an earlier post on this thread I did actually mention that selling at same day close was much more profitable. (300+% in the first year).
 
Gringotts Bank said:
You're right but I'm sticking with the original criteria for the moment nomore4s - next open sell, so as not to confuse things. This will still be profitable to the tune of 50-100+%, if my timing is correct, regardless of any overnight shocks.

In an earlier post on this thread I did actually mention that selling at same day close was much more profitable. (300+% in the first year).
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The Sum of LYC's intraday Open to Close for the past year is -110%. While the stock is priced same as oct last year. Perhaps better idea to SELL 3 price levels from the high...

Holding o/n defeats the purpose of it.

Conversely, if you bought the close and sold the open for the past year, you would have made 124% from the opening gaps.
 
skyQuake said:
Conversely, if you bought the close and sold the open for the past year, you would have made 124% from the opening gaps.
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No that's wrong. You'd have made 13% even with full reinvestment of profits.

As for that first sentence, I have no idea what you're talking about.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
No that's wrong. You'd have made 13% even with full reinvestment of profits.

As for that first sentence, I have no idea what you're talking about.
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You buy the open, sell the close. No compounding, just daily trades. You would have lost exactly 107% Meaning if u allocated $100 to each trade u'd be at $-107
Every day's p/l is 100*(open-close)/open

If you bought the close of each day and sold the next morning, with no compounding, you'd have made 129%

Data is with IRESS, date is 8th Nov 2010 to Now.
 
skyQuake said:
1. You buy the open, sell the close. No compounding, just daily trades. You would have lost exactly 107% Meaning if u allocated $100 to each trade u'd be at $-107
Every day's p/l is 100*(open-close)/open

2. If you bought the close of each day and sold the next morning, with no compounding, you'd have made 129%

Data is with IRESS, date is 8th Nov 2010 to Now.
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1. Yeh...so what? That's got nothing to do with what I'm doing here.
2. No, wrong. 13%. Others here can confirm that, it takes 2 seconds to test.
 
I agree it's been gapping up frequently in the last 5 days and that you would have made the same high gains you've indicated in your table.

And over a year, 13% gain (profits re-invested).
 
Mistagear said:
Hi I'm interested to know why LYC now ?....which I think LYC has, now in the mark down phase where trading opportunities may gradually decline as the stock nods off to sleep. Dont get me wrong, 6% volatility is ok, but better if you are trading, leading into periods of expanding volatility rather than the other way around...
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To be honest, this is what I thought also, with the exception that I'm still bullish on Lynas for the medium to long term. And maybe sooner than we think. The Malaysian govt wants Lynas, I little doubt it.

But more power to you Gringotts if you can make the strategy work, your 13% return is not too dusty in these market conditions.
 
Skyquake's figures look good to me. Can't run it through amibroker atm though.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
I get a positive result, and I can make it >13% if I change my position sizing and allow accumulation of profits, but nothing like 128%. A third party can settle this.
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Thats a very basic excel query... Its not a strategy, but just a distribution of where the gains are in LYC
 
Bought @ 1.145

sky, we're doing slightly different things. Your comment was: 'why not just buy the close sell the open?', which I agree has worked well, especially this last week or so.

Far greater gains are possible for anyone who can come within 3 ticks of the low, then sell at same day close (or next open).
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Bought @ 1.145
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Once again (and last warning), if you are posting 'buys' you need to also post your 'sells' what price did you sell all your other (still open) open trades?

Its an ASF policy GB, so if i dont start seeing closed trade prices i'm going to have to close the thread sorry
 
from a post on 8th!!!

Gringotts Bank said:
I'm sticking with the original criteria for the moment nomore4s - next open sell, so as not to confuse things. This will still be profitable to the tune of 50-100+%, if my timing is correct, regardless of any overnight shocks.

In an earlier post on this thread I did actually mention that selling at same day close was much more profitable. (300+% in the first year).
Click to expand...

So yes, any stock I buy will be sold at next day's open. Do I have to tell everyone today's open is $1.14?!!
That's the experiment: BUY = read the depth, get within 3 ticks of the low
SELL = next open.

I have commented upon other exits but the rule is sell = next open. I'll compile results after a week.
 
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