SAE - Salinas Energy

[drasicjazz]

Anyone know anything regarding what the He!!!!!#@$%% is going on.
Is it good or bad news??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

looks like we are all in for a surprice....
i ve been looking everywhere... no luck
all i can say is that it will probebly be good
because i m new to the market and i havent had my beginnersluck...

at this stage i have to convice myself with this kind of ''''knowledge''''

 

[Ang]

Capital raising @ 40 cents, however market kept strong at 42 cents.
Should start going up !!!!!!!

 

[drasicjazz]

does anyone knows if we can expect something here
this is one is so dead calm
i m afraid i m loosing my nurve a bid
:dunno:

 

[doctorj]

SAE put on a good show at the recent upstream energy conference and have also been a part of a greater upswing in all the junior oilers of late. They have an active drilling program (about a well a month for the next 8 months) which will keep the punters interested.

 

[drasicjazz]

hey doc
do you realy think it is would be good to buy in again
the reson i sold it was because
everything was going so slow
even with ann sae wasn't moving at all
and then it even started to go down

the day i sold it and both some znc and sold halfway in the day with over 30% prof (i see that that is not every time poss)
my question is 'and im a rooky' why would anyone wait
more than a month or more
and hold on to it without seeing any movement?

 

[doctorj]

hey doc
do you realy think it is would be good to buy in again

No idea and even if I had any idea, I wouldn't say because I don't have a license to give specific advice. For this kind of advice you'll need to get the services of some kind of Financial Advisor. No one here at ASF can or will be able to offer you this kind of advice.

the day i sold it and both some znc and sold halfway in the day with over 30% prof (i see that that is not every time poss)
my question is 'and im a rooky' why would anyone wait
more than a month or more
and hold on to it without seeing any movement?

How long you hold will depend on your goals, personality, tolerance for risk etc etc. The only thing I will say on your specific situation is that 30% within a day is atypical and no sensible trading plan should expect these kind of returns.

If you want to discuss a general trading strategy (position sizing, risk management, entries & exits) there are plenty of threads here at ASF. Try using the search facility at the top of the page to find the relevant information.

 

[svensk]

Just a thought, there's some nice macd-h divergence happening on the chart. Perhaps the start of a new uptrend is imminent?

Watching this keenly.

 

[Ang]

I have been in this one for a while and since January there has been a series of Flags with all profit targets achieved. I have attached the graph with my thoughts and I believe we have a new move up as there must be an announcement around the corner, once the anncouncment is out then the price will come down again and wait for the next run uo. My target is 58 cent, (Depth of flag) as all other flags as drawn in the past 6 months.
These are my thoughts and should not be considered as advice.
Kind regards
Ang

 

[sfx]

Looking to get into this one - can NE1 tell me what their run sheet has been like - ie, forecasted drilling schedules on time, hit ratio for hydrocarbons etc?!

There's been good gains, but is it promising going by the NSA forecasts?!

NE1's comments appreciated here....

 

[qr2007]

According to the daytrader tip in HeraldSun wed 10/10/2007, he suggested that this SP will go up to around $0.80 and then $1.00.

Any comments?

 

[sfx]

According to the daytrader tip in HeraldSun wed 10/10/2007, he suggested that this SP will go up to around $0.80 and then $1.00.

Any comments?

Time will tell I guess !!! With the market like today, I think it will be a while away, even with good announcements...

 

[lazyfish]

I did a bit of research on SAE and bought a few. I am not a big fan of heavy crude but I think the projects that SAE have big upsides.

Currently NSA is producing 1000bopd, sold at approximately 80 USD a barrel (heavy crude receives a penalty). More wells will be installed next year, and production will double (Fat Prophet and Paterson both quoting july 2008). Current infrastructure on site have a throughput of 2000 bopd. Assuming this is successful, we are looking at a profit of

2000 (bopd) * ( 80 *(crude price with penalty) * 1.1 (exchange rate) - 15 (production cost)) * 365 * 0.8 (less royalty) * 0.7 (not sure if this is the corporate tax rate, Patersons pointed out that they also have substantial tax losses from the former REL business, not sure if they can be utilized) = NP of 30 Millions pa. Current MC is around 120M so a PE of 4.

Recoverable oil is conservatively estimated to be 5 Millon, so at least we have 6.8 years of production from NSA. I said this estimate is conservative because if you look at San Ardo just down the road, recovery is at a much higher 48%. (NSA using 33%)

Now the thing that really got me interested is Paris Valley, which is a couple miles north west of NSA. It has 100 Million OOIP (24 Million recoverable net to SAE using 48%). SAE will earn 50% interest and operatorship. The field was last operated in 1970s and was not operated due to low oil price. I did a bit of search on google and found that cyclic steam stimulation has been used successfully to recover oil, albeit at a non economical opex at that time, and this I believe is not a horizontal well. Production and recovery should be much better using a combination of cyclic steam stimulation and steam flooding using horizontal wells. They also have the option of implementing SAGD although this will incur higher CAPEX. I have asked the company what they plan to do with Paris Valley and is still waiting for a reply.

SAE will drill approximately 20 wells in the next year so should be plenty to keep people interested.

 

[BenH]

Anyone know what is hapeing with sae at the moment, there seems to be a bit of a shift in price and number of sellers, thinking of jumping in, what can you all tell me?

 

[eddyeagle]

I bought in this morning at 37 cents.
Fat Prophets have been plugging this one big time (probably bc it has fallen heavily recently!)
But after reading a few reports I liked what I saw. Also liked the look of the graph after it bounced off the 30cent mark in recent weeks...
Plenty of things happening this year.



Couple of things taken from their March presentation:

- Substantial oil revenues and a +15 well, fully funded drilling program
commencing mid April 2008
- Highly experienced management and operating group in California with
proven capabilities
- Major land position acquired (~40,000 acres) in hydrocarbon rich
sedimentary basins
- Forecast oil production of over 280,000 barrels in CY 2008
- Forecast revenues over US$20M
- Margins after all expenses over US$50/bbl at current oil prices.

Growth potential from:
- NSA upside
- McCool (CY2008/09)
- Paris Valley (CY2009)
- Other low risk oilfield redevelopment projects

 

[eddyeagle]

Anyone else invested in / trading / following SAE?

Up 13.5% today on the back of a good announcement:



ANNOUNCEMENT TO THE AUSTRALIAN STOCK EXCHANGE: 1 MAY 2008
EXCELLENT OIL SHOWS IN NORTH SAN ARDO LOMBARDI 13-27H WELL
Salinas Energy is pleased to advise that the second of the current four horizontal production well
program on the Company’s 100% owned North San Ardo oil field (NSA) has been successfully drilled.
Excellent oil shows have been encountered in the Lombardi reservoir with abundant free oil in the
samples with high electric log resistivities recorded over the entire length of the horizontal section. A
slotted production liner has been successfully run over the 1,205 feet horizontal section and the well
will now be completed and is expected to be on production within the next two weeks. The Lombardi
13-27H well has the longest horizontal section completed for production of any well drilled to date by
Salinas at NSA.
The Ensign 509 drilling rig will now be moved off location to a drill pad to the north of the main
production facility to commence the next well in the program, Lombardi 11-27H which will be drilled in
a southerly direction.
The Lombardi 10-27H well, the first well drilled in the program, has been cleaned up for production.
The well, which has oil to surface and the pump installed, will be tied into the NSA production facility
early next week. Total production levels at NSA will increase over the next two months as each new
well is tied into the recently completed 2,000 bopd capacity production facility.
Commenting on the recent successful well Salinas’ Managing Director John Begg said:
“We are delighted with the results of the drilling program to date and the extended reach we
achieved with this well validates the capability of our team to execute our development program. We
fully expect that we will meet all of our production and revenue targets for the 2008 calendar year
and look forward to continued successful building of our business in California.”

 

[BenH]

Yep i jumped in as 37c, a bit down today, but i think it has potential. Im not familiar with the Fat Profits take on it, but either way, i hope its good news to come. What can you all tell me, what do they see its value to be (in your opinion) or in Fat Prophets opinion?

 

[eddyeagle]

Fat Prophets have said this recently regarding SAE:

Beaten Down Stock #1 - A small oil production and exploration company whose share price has fallen 50% from its recent peak, leaving the whole company valued at around $65 million.

Today the company is forecasting profits of over $16 million in 2008, putting the company on a price to earnings ratio of just 4 times. If that's not enough, the company themselves think their own shares might be worth around $1.55, some 384% above their current share price.

 

[BenH]

I would like to see $1.55, lol i would be happy to see 55c i hope they are not just talking up their stocks, but there is definitely potential IMO

 

[eddyeagle]

Well it closed on 48 cents today so we are getting there! Up around 30% in two weeks! Fat Prophets plugging it again today...

 

[BenH]

And up again today, im liking this little one. Im new to this, but as they say DYOR, and i did. Im up 30% already, so hey im happy with that but planing on holding long term. I hope it hits SAE's estimate, $1.55 would be yummy