Saaa-wing batter

[Roller_1]

I trade the all ords and have my limit orders just sitting in the market waiting, i dont have too many issues, i am using liquidity filters though so i'm not trading dog stocks. I did get a partial today though but i think it may fill later on.

 

[Boggo]

Do you know the average win rate?
Do you know the average win size in terms of R
Do you know the average loss in terms of R.

Or is this a wing it exercise in Hypotheticals.

What if you swapped to selling losers really quickly --even if they return to B/E before
they hit a stop
and you hold winners to at least > an R multiple that reflects a loss R multiple?

You may position size with a 1-2% stop but by ratcheting you could end up with
.5% in reality.
Much easier to profit .

Just an Idea as the duck flies by.

In addition to what the duck says, an extract from a book I have here.

 

[Quant]

In addition to what the duck says, an extract from a book I have here.

Furthermore here is a probability matrix , a 50% drawdown in an account needs a 100% return to get back to scratch . Cant speak for anyone else but in my world % trade success is a higher priority than R , don't get me wrong they are both important for sure but % has a bigger say in curve smoothness and risk of ruin . 2 systems with the same expectancy I will take the high % every time even though the low % potentially has better returns . Definitely a whole thread could be devoted to this , but I'm already convinced so I will leave that up to others .

Risk of ruin is the worst case scenario , in a large enough sample size at some stage you will see the skinnier end of the curve .

 

[Gringotts Bank]

OZL @ 2.18

 

[skc]

OZL @ 2.18

That is either an awesome entry price... or a typo.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

That is either an awesome entry price... or a typo.

yeh mistake OZL @ 6.63
sell 6.86

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Open:
[NCK @ 7.44 - see below]
AKP @ 16.45
[PRG - fat finger ]
IPH @ 4.98
CIM @ 38.66
ECX @3.9
EVT - taking this out of calcs from now on
AWC @1.845
MTR @ 3.07
SLC @ 2.48
APE @ 7.96
MYX @ 1.095 (new)
BKL @ 106.12 (new)
AQG @2.12 (new)
NCK has a second buy signal at 7.09. New average @ 7.26.

closed:
AOG +2%
EML +2%
SSM +6%
RMS +2%
ING 0% (reached its target today - should have held on)
SIG -8%
OZL +3%
SBM +8%

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Position sizing is possible to some degree since the targets/stops are hard levels. But it's tricky when some targets are close and others quite a distance away. 2-5% risk per trade might work ok if the system turns out to have a high win rate.

Stopped out trades are going to be shorted since they too appear to behave according to the levels identified.

Short SIG 1.195

 

[tech/a]

How are you doing that?
CFD
What about slippage from the spread.

This looks suspiciously like your winging it!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

How are you doing that?
CFD
What about slippage from the spread.

This looks suspiciously like your winging it!

I've already said that this thread is an exploratory exercise, and I'm not interested in putting too much effort into it. Trading diaries don't have much value unless they are carried on for many years. But they can be used as a very rough guide as to whether the idea is worth coding up into something backtestable.

I am taking only some of the trades with real money, to get a feel for it. I'm not saying which ones.

 

[tech/a]

The profitable ones I'm sure

 

[Gringotts Bank]

sell AWC 1.905
+3%

 

[Boggo]

sell AWC 1.905
+3%

Can I ask why you sold GB, I still hold on my weekly system since 17th Oct.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Can I ask why you sold GB, I still hold on my weekly system since 17th Oct.

I made the buy based on manually drawn lines. The coded lines have a slightly different angle and the target was hit a little while back. So I don't have anything useful to say, sorry. Looks pretty comfortable for a measured move up from here.

 

[Boggo]

I made the buy based on manually drawn lines. The coded lines have a slightly different angle and the target was hit a little while back. So I don't have anything useful to say, sorry. Looks pretty comfortable for a measured move up from here.

No worries GB, profit is profit

 

[Roller_1]

Position sizing is possible to some degree since the targets/stops are hard levels. But it's tricky when some targets are close and others quite a distance away. 2-5% risk per trade might work ok if the system turns out to have a high win rate.

Win rate would want to be bloody high with a 5% risk per trade!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Sold MYX 1.11 +1.5%

Open: n = new at close
AKP @ 16.45
IPH @ 4.98
CIM @ 38.66
ECX @3.9
MTR @ 3.07
SLC @ 2.48
APE @ 7.96
BKL @ 106.12
AQG @2.12
NCK ave 7.26
BAL @5.73 n
SGR@5.2 n
SKC @ 4.12 n
SIG short at 1.195

closed:
AOG +2%
EML +2%
SSM +6%
RMS +2%
ING 0%
SIG -8%
OZL +3%
SBM +8%
AWC + 2%
MYX +1.5%

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Win rate would want to be bloody high with a 5% risk per trade!

1-2% (of total capital) is probably going to be more realistic. Nearby stops/targets can require positions which are far too large.

The absolute % gain for winners is going to range between 2% and ? 15%.

I'm looking at a R:R of about 0.7:1. Very approximate. That would mean I'd need a 70% win rate if my thinking is correct.

Then there's profitability. The 'do I get to eat tonight' index.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Sell PRU 0.32, +10%
Sell SLC 2.62, +6%
Sell BKL 1.08,+2%

 

[Gringotts Bank]

SGR 5.25, +1%

Open: n = new at close
AKP @ 16.45
IPH @ 4.98
CIM @ 38.66
ECX @3.9
MTR @ 3.07
SLC @ 2.48
APE @ 7.96
BKL @ 106.12
AQG @2.12
NCK ave 7.26
BAL @5.73
SKC @ 4.12
SIG short at 1.195
BAP need lower price to enter, n
RCR need lower price, n
SFR @6.11, n

closed:
AOG +2%
EML +2%
SSM +6%
RMS +2%
ING 0%
SIG -8%
OZL +3%
SBM +8%
AWC + 2%
MYX +1.5%
SGR 5.25, +1%
PRU 0.32, +10%
SLC 2.62, +6%
BKL 1.08,+2%