Robusta fundamental, leveraged investments

[So_Cynical]

Here is one I got right... so far. Normally I update the holdings on the anniversary of the first purchase, somehow I missed this one.

So when I bought IPP back in Nov 2012 it was and still is the only holding not making a profit. The thesis was massive growth and increasing revenue.


The price fell so I picked up some more.So that is a average price of $0.8566 per share

After that the price fell to $0.70 and I considered buying some more but did not pull the trigger, not wanting to take on more risk.

This is considered such a no no, and yet on almost every stock that i have made more than 100% on, i have bought more when the price fell further...very few of us speak of this and very very few of us post it live. it can take a while and its not sexy, but triple digit profits are triple digit profits.

 

[tech/a]

This is considered such a no no, and yet on almost every stock that i have made more than 100% on, i have bought more when the price fell further...very few of us speak of this and very very few of us post it live. it can take a while and its not sexy, but triple digit profits are triple digit profits.

Luck.
If it was skill you'd be at the bottom first time.

I'll also bet this is where you'll find your biggest losses
Or more to the point-----longest bottom draw trades.
Youve not made a loss until you sell at a loss----RIGHT

 

[CanOz]

Luck.
If it was skill you'd be at the bottom first time.

I'll also bet this is where you'll find your biggest losses
Or more to the point-----longest bottom draw trades.
Youve not made a loss until you sell at a loss----RIGHT

I agree that you should not average into losing trades in equities...., however SC has made some pretty good ones because he had the gonads to hang on and the equities were good enough to shake off the bear trend.

It does make me wonder though what happens when an HHI or KZL happens along. However, if he has his risk spread around and most are good companies then there is something to be said for a contrarian strategy like this. The proof is in the profit and he has shown that, has he not?.

 

[So_Cynical]

Luck.
If it was skill you'd be at the bottom first time.

Buying the bottom is ALWAYS luck, never though about the skill aspect and thinking about it i don't think skill plays any part, its a calculated decision.

longest bottom draw trades.
You've not made a loss until you sell at a loss----RIGHT

I only have the one draw, when you enter with no time frame you don't need one...and selling at a loss should always be avoided, hard to make money by losing money.

 

[tech/a]

Sure you'll get the odd one that works

But for balance I've not seen anyone Spruking
Up the 6 trades they are locked into loss after averaging
In 3 x and still 50% down on the initial buy even after
Averaging down.

 

[So_Cynical]

Sure you'll get the odd one that works

In my experience its not the odd one that works its the odd one that fails.

SC has made some pretty good ones because he had the gonads to hang on and the equities were good enough to shake off the bear trend.

It does make me wonder though what happens when an HHI or KZL happens along. However, if he has his risk spread around and most are good companies then there is something to be said for a contrarian strategy like this. The proof is in the profit

5 year average of around 15% ~ was going along at 18% but 12/13 was a slow year due to a withdrawal of funds for a RE purchase and the overhang from that will slow 13/14 returns as well.

 

[tech/a]

Well done then.
Perhaps I need to look at the way I trade.
Your win rate is by absolute miles the best I've seen from anyone who has quoted a win rate anywhere on the planet.
Over 80%

To have returned only 15-18% beggars belief.
Those 21 losses must be substantial.

Perhaps you should try it with Futs!

 

[Ves]

Recently IPP have announced their first cash flow positive quarter.

I saw that, looks pretty exciting. Also remember I grilled you a bit on this one when you first bought it - bit too risky for me, too many "what ifs", but it didn't discourage you and you stuck you your guns. Going pretty well for you. Well done.

 

[robusta]

This is considered such a no no, and yet on almost every stock that i have made more than 100% on, i have bought more when the price fell further...very few of us speak of this and very very few of us post it live. it can take a while and its not sexy, but triple digit profits are triple digit profits.

You have been very successful at it and like me you have a entry criteria. With the right stock's why not buy more when the price is cheaper?

Luck.
If it was skill you'd be at the bottom first time.

Who can find the bottom first time with any consistency? Cheap enough for a decent long term return is cheap enough for a decent long term return. Picking the bottom is luck.

I'll also bet this is where you'll find your biggest losses
Or more to the point-----longest bottom draw trades.
Youve not made a loss until you sell at a loss----RIGHT

Can't speak for So_cynical but none of my holdings are in the bottom drawer, and like So_cynical including open positions my portfolio is doing OK.

I agree that you should not average into losing trades in equities...., however SC has made some pretty good ones because he had the gonads to hang on and the equities were good enough to shake off the bear trend.

It does make me wonder though what happens when an HHI or KZL happens along. However, if he has his risk spread around and most are good companies then there is something to be said for a contrarian strategy like this. The proof is in the profit and he has shown that, has he not?.

True it is like they say let your profits run....

Sure you'll get the odd one that works

But for balance I've not seen anyone Spruking
Up the 6 trades they are locked into loss after averaging
In 3 x and still 50% down on the initial buy even after
Averaging down.

No one would spruik it because too few have the stomach to follow this strategy. But it seems to work with the right stock selection and portfolio construction. Mind you would have to be VERY confident to average in 50% down.

 

[robusta]

I saw that, looks pretty exciting. Also remember I grilled you a bit on this one when you first bought it - bit too risky for me, too many "what ifs", but it didn't discourage you and you stuck you your guns. Going pretty well for you. Well done.

Well to tell you the truth IPP was almost too risky for me. It was a difficult decision to take a full sized position in something that wasn't making any money. Have made the wrong decision and paid up for future growth in the past but this one is working out so far.

 

[robusta]

New Investment

IAA - Ishares Asia 50 ETF

Bought 41 @ $49.00 = $2028.95 4/2/2013

http://au.ishares.com/fund/fund-overview-IAA-ASX.do

I know it is all bad news at the moment regarding currencies and growth but the region is still growing fast and long term I expect the Asian currencies to appreciate while A$ should depreciate. The two largest holdings Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductors are also attractive IMO. Like the other ETF in the fund (WDIV) I will participate in the DRP.

 

[robusta]

Investment Increased

Bentham IMF LTD

Bought 870 @ $1.72 = $1516.35

This brings the total holding to 2566 shares and elevates IMF to my fifth largest position. Truth be told I have no idea how the market will react to this morning's bank fees decision.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-05/anz-bank-fees-class-action-maurice-blackburn/5238494

I do think however this business manages capital well and has many years of growth ahead.

 

[robusta]

Investment Increased

TGA - Thorn Group

Bought 762 @ $1.97 = $1521.09

This brings the total holding to 3657 shares at a average price of somewhere around $1.65 TGA is now my third largest holding behind IPP and NVT.

 

[robusta]

Another nice little milestone for the portfolio today. As at the close of trading the portfolio has a market value of $48700.15, I owe the bank (line of credit) $28568.99 so that is $20131.16 in equity. Not sure what the CAGR is on the $7125.00 I have contributed over the last two and a half years. The most pleasing aspect to me is the dividends are now greater than the interest paid so things are starting to snowball now.

On a personal note please don't read this as me saying I'm a great investor. If I had to rate my trading decisions I would have to say performance has been below average to average at best. The strategy of buying the best businesses you can find at a reasonable price however will in my opinion outperform given enough time.

 

[robusta]

New Investment

UOS - United Overseas Australia

Bought 2634 @ $0.535 = $1429.14 13/2/14

This is a REIT invested mainly in Malaysia, they have a good history of capital management, low debt and a nice little discount to NTA.

 

[Ves]

New Investment

UOS - United Overseas Australia

Bought 2634 @ $0.535 = $1429.14 13/2/14

This is a REIT invested mainly in Malaysia, they have a good history of capital management, low debt and a nice little discount to NTA.

Interesting company. Would you believe I've been watching it since May last year? It intrigues me, because on the surface it looks very cheap... but something so far has kept me out of it. Very illiquid and tightly held, so just be careful if you need to get out in a hurry. The clearest revaluation catalyst for this company would appear to be it being taken private by the parties who have majority interests in it.

The related company structure is a nice little web in itself. Entities entwined together, so lots to think about.

Agree that it looks well managed, management looks pretty open to questions from what I've read. The problem with this is that the company is so tightly held that no one asks them questions!

edit: I won't claim to have found this one on my own, someone asked me to have a look at the time.

 

[So_Cynical]

Interesting company. Would you believe I've been watching it since May last year?

I started watching in 2010 but have never got around to buying it..

 

[KnowThePast]

Interesting company. Would you believe I've been watching it since May last year? It intrigues me, because on the surface it looks very cheap... but something so far has kept me out of it. Very illiquid and tightly held, so just be careful if you need to get out in a hurry. The clearest revaluation catalyst for this company would appear to be it being taken private by the parties who have majority interests in it.

The related company structure is a nice little web in itself. Entities entwined together, so lots to think about.

Agree that it looks well managed, management looks pretty open to questions from what I've read. The problem with this is that the company is so tightly held that no one asks them questions!

edit: I won't claim to have found this one on my own, someone asked me to have a look at the time.

Been watches for ages as well!

There's an article somewhere on the internet that tries to break down all the estimates to come up with the correct figure of cash and asset values. It is a long article

Price wise it looks very, very cheap, but I know so little about their market that I've never had the nerve to pull the trigger.

 

[robusta]

Interesting company. Would you believe I've been watching it since May last year? It intrigues me, because on the surface it looks very cheap... but something so far has kept me out of it. Very illiquid and tightly held, so just be careful if you need to get out in a hurry. The clearest revaluation catalyst for this company would appear to be it being taken private by the parties who have majority interests in it.

The related company structure is a nice little web in itself. Entities entwined together, so lots to think about.

Agree that it looks well managed, management looks pretty open to questions from what I've read. The problem with this is that the company is so tightly held that no one asks them questions!

edit: I won't claim to have found this one on my own, someone asked me to have a look at the time.

Thank you Ves, it is very tightly held and I'm still not sure I have my head completely around the related company structure. As for the lack of liquidity that is a risk I am prepared to take but only with a small position. This is under 3% of the portfolio at the moment.

Been watches for ages as well!

There's an article somewhere on the internet that tries to break down all the estimates to come up with the correct figure of cash and asset values. It is a long article

Price wise it looks very, very cheap, but I know so little about their market that I've never had the nerve to pull the trigger.

Same here I don't know much about the real estate market either and there is some talk of a bubble...

Had a little look but couldn't find that article I would be very interested in it.

 

[Ves]

Had a little look but couldn't find that article I would be very interested in it.

I believe this is the article.

http://www.eternalgrowthpartners.com/node/168

All credit to eternalgrowth who posts a lot on this company over at Hotcopper.