Robusta fundamental, leveraged investments

[robusta]

New Investment

HHL - Hunter Hall International

Bought 1182 shares @ $2.85 = $3388.65 including brokerage.

The basic thesis for this one is, they are growth value investors focusing on small to mid caps who have unsurprisingly had sub par returns recently with a resultant shrinkage of funds under management. I am confident the returns will improve (they are up a bit over 11% this financial year) and the FUM will start flowing back in. Many investors in managed funds follow the most recent high performers while selling poor performers even if they have a long history of good returns - a bit like sheep really.

While I wait for positive returns I am sure the dividends will be satisfactory.

 

[tech/a]

New Investment

HHL - Hunter Hall International

Bought 1182 shares @ $2.85 = $3388.65 including brokerage.

The basic thesis for this one is, they are growth value investors focusing on small to mid caps who have unsurprisingly had sub par returns recently with a resultant shrinkage of funds under management. I am confident the returns will improve (they are up a bit over 11% this financial year) and the FUM will start flowing back in. Many investors in managed funds follow the most recent high performers while selling poor performers even if they have a long history of good returns - a bit like sheep really.

While I wait for positive returns I am sure the dividends will be satisfactory.

So having a read here I notice some value investors buying at $5.90 ish then $3.90 ish and now
$2.50 ish
Sheep----really.

 

[systematic]

So having a read here I notice some value investors buying at $5.90 ish then $3.90 ish and now
$2.50 ish
Sheep----really.

Oh, tech/a; honestly.

 

[McLovin]

So having a read here I notice some value investors buying at $5.90 ish then $3.90 ish and now
$2.50 ish
Sheep----really.

So umm...you don't know what a value investor is. No surprise there, really. Falling over your own hubris, again.

 

[tech/a]

The---err value----was at which level $5---3---2.5

In a few months the value will be astounding!

 

[McLovin]

The---err value----was at which level $5---3---2.5

In a few months the value will be astounding!

Who was the value investor doing that? So_Cynical most certainly isn't one, not that you'd know.

 

[tech/a]

Who was the value investor doing that? So_Cynical most certainly isn't one, not that you'd know.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13513
Post 4 still holding evidently.

Evidently value to most on ASF = $ cost averaging.

The basic thesis for this one is, they are growth value investors focusing on small to mid caps who have unsurprisingly had sub par returns recently with a resultant shrinkage of funds under management. I am confident the returns will improve (they are up a bit over 11% this financial year) and the FUM will start flowing back in. Many investors in managed funds follow the most recent high performers while selling poor performers even if they have a long history of good returns - a bit like sheep really.

This value investing fund share price has dropped 70 % --- works well.
Your 11% rise only needs another 700% to reach its last peak.

Value investing
or
Falling knife punt!

 

[RandR]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13513
Post 4 still holding evidently.

Evidently value to most on ASF = $ cost averaging.



This value investing fund share price has dropped 70 % --- works well.
Your 11% rise only needs another 700% to reach its last peak.

Value investing
or
Falling knife punt!

"My way works better then yours"

Its just embarrasing when someone with your intelligence and understanding of markets makes a comment that so embarrasingly misses the mark and shows a complete and utter ignorance of financial analysis and value investing.

Tech ...

...If similarly stupid comments were made in reference to any of the thousands of hedge funds that have practised some form of technical analysis and failed miserably would you think it a fair and reasonable argument that tech/a is usesless ?

Its most interesting that you apply great business investing principles into your real estate (as far as im aware) and then display a complete disdain and ignorance of these when it comes to investing in business via the market.

 

[tech/a]

Your concern is touching.

All forms of analysis work brilliantly in a bull market.
Risk and portfolio management works during bear and
Oscillating markets.
One size doest fit all. Regardless of ASF opinion.

Much Value investing in falling markets
The more they and portfolios fall the more " Value "
Is found in held stocks --- and past favorites.

Under valuation is a market disease.The value investor
Is way more intelligent to the market--- they--- have simply got it wrong!

Next bull market will prove that right!!
Value??
Nah!

 

[McLovin]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13513
Post 4 still holding evidently.

Evidently value to most on ASF = $ cost averaging.

Again, like I said, SC is not a value investor. Get it?

This value investing fund share price has dropped 70 % --- works well.
Your 11% rise only needs another 700% to reach its last peak.

Wrong again. The fund manager's share price has dropped 70%. The value fund they manage has returned an outperformance of 8.9%pa since 1994. Seems like it's working to me. Why don't you give up this silly game, you really have no idea what you're talking about.

http://www.hunterhall.com.au/managed_funds_VGT.php#performance

 

[Ves]

Much Value investing in falling markets
The more they and portfolios fall the more " Value "
Is found in held stocks --- and past favorites.

Yes - your mentor, Nick Radge, was on YMYC recently saying that SWM was a "good buy" and looked "technically good."

I've heard it was technically good at $10, $8, $4.20, $3, $1.80 so far.

There are knife catchers in all investing approaches.

For every HHL there has been a TGA, MMS and NVT to name a few recently.

Cheers.

 

[robusta]

This value investing fund share price has dropped 70 % --- works well.
Your 11% rise only needs another 700% to reach its last peak.

McLovin answered this one we are talking about two different things, FUM and the returns of the listed investment manager.

700% that is worth waiting at least 10 years for, I did not realize the sp got high prior to the GFC, it is not impossible they will hit new highs one day.

Wrong again. The fund manager's share price has dropped 70%. The value fund they manage has returned an outperformance of 8.9%pa since 1994. Seems like it's working to me. Why don't you give up this silly game, you really have no idea what you're talking about.

http://www.hunterhall.com.au/managed_funds_VGT.php#performance

Value investing
or
Falling knife punt!

HHL makes their money via FUM (a fixed percentage) and bonuses for outperformances. The big if is can they outperform in the future? History and looking at their largest holding (Sirtex) suggests to me the odds are in my favor.

As sure as night follows day if they outperform for a rolling five year period FUM will increase. I have no idea by how much but if the outflows (I expect these to continue) reverse back to current FUM, HHL will still generate me a decent return.

Any investment by it's nature is a punt but the beauty of the stock market is you can wait and occasionally back champions at cricket score odds. We will have to wait a while to see if HHL fits this category.

 

[Boggo]

Yes - your mentor, Nick Radge, was on YMYC recently saying that SWM was a "good buy" and looked "technically good."

I've heard it was technically good at $10, $8, $4.20, $3, $1.80 so far.

Slight difference between recently (where it has gone up nearly 50%) and $10, $8 etc etc, they would have been statements by those who average down into greater loss.
Wouldn't mind seeing some of those "technically good" references that you heard.

Anyway, its interesting to note that when these fund managers etc quote performance they seem to forget inflation. How many of them would get their 15% performance bonus if they applied true value to their calculations.
Apply reality (below) to the results in the link in a previous post above and see how the figures would look.

 

[robusta]

Anyway, its interesting to note that when these fund managers etc quote performance they seem to forget inflation. How many of them would get their 15% performance bonus if they applied true value to their calculations.
Apply reality (below) to the results in the link in a previous post above and see how the figures would look.

Good point Boggo, that is the beauty of owning the fund manager, not the fund.

 

[McLovin]

Anyway, its interesting to note that when these fund managers etc quote performance they seem to forget inflation. How many of them would get their 15% performance bonus if they applied true value to their calculations.
Apply reality (below) to the results in the link in a previous post above and see how the figures would look.

$91,172 v inflation of $15,979. Seems pretty good to me.

 

[Boggo]

$91,172 v inflation of $15,979. Seems pretty good to me.

It would if you look at it that way

 

[McLovin]

It would if you look at it that way

Deflate it to 1994 dollars you still get $55k.

 

[So_Cynical]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13513
Post 4 still holding evidently.

Evidently value to most on ASF = $ cost averaging.

I Can confirm that im still holding and as of Fridays close my HHL position is down 31.93% ~ 7 parcels (4 div reinvestments) with an average price of $4.13...im due to take a major average down soon.

I also have one closed trade of 8% profit....the fund managers are getting hammered.

As McLovin rightly pointed out, a value investor i am not.

 

[Ves]

Slight difference between recently (where it has gone up nearly 50%) and $10, $8 etc etc, they would have been statements by those who average down into greater loss.
Wouldn't mind seeing some of those "technically good" references that you heard.

I can't say when he bought it (if he even did) but when he mentioned it is was already high $1.40s.

I'm also not saying Nick said it was technically good at any other point, but their were plenty of such comments made on YMYC over the last 18 months for a start. For all I know these technical analysts that appear on that show make more money from their books than their trading.

Boggo - you and me both know that in both fields of investing very few people can out-perform the market (and inflation) over the long-term.

All I am saying is that there are bottom pickers on both sides of the coin and I think it is unfair to single "value investors" out every time.

There are years worth of posts saved on Hotcopper covering this and many other things.

 

[tech/a]

Where do you get that this is an F/A---T/A dog fight.

The fact that around 80% of stocks simply move with the Fundamentals of the overall underlying market
Including HHL has been shown in graphical form.
Over the long term. Significant Change in underlying Fundamentals and you'll get a reversal to 80 % bullish from current bearish price action,including HHL.
So unless I've missed this significant shift--- my comments remain.

Sure I understand the theory that the fund has risen 11% and IF continues FUM and share price should rise.
But again without substantial change in the underlying market Fundamentls---it's not going to happen.

No technical analysis has been presented up.
But more than happy to put up a chart with
Supporting analysis.

Ignore buttons a great function.
I look forward to you guys using it.
I won't have to put up with the childish attacks.