How on earth are you valuing this, Robusta? Obviously it is a cyclical, but with the shortages of contracts and lack of transparency of management adding to this complexity, I really do not see how you can even begin to make any reliable assumptions to input into a valuation model. Any sort of mining / industrial services looks over-filled with competition at the moment too. Cost competition is fierce.
Robusta fundamental, leveraged investments
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skc
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You've made no attempt to hide your transformation from wannabe-value-investor to random-punting-gambler (with particular focus on ex-Roger Montgomery-spruiked stocks)... well done.
Not to mention you are close to fully loaded heading into a Greek crisis that seems to be worse than last year...
So_Cynical
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LOL
Yes robusta seems to be morphing into a bit of a value punter with a splash of contrarian knife catching thrown in....its all a learning experience after all.
But seriously if one is keen on a particular stock (MCE / CKF) then sometimes you just have to lay your money down and back your judgement...regardless of the 1000 voices saying don't do it.
no one was slapping me on the back when i was buying ILU at $3 or BPT at 68 cents, saying well done, what a great time to buy etc etc.Sometimes you just sort of have to accept that the majority of people selling XYZ at a particular time (market low) are Muppet's... arguably when looking at significant low points in any good stock your looking at Muppet's selling.
LOL
Yes robusta seems to be morphing into a bit of a value punter with a splash of contrarian knife catching thrown in....its all a learning experience after all.
But seriously if one is keen on a particular stock (MCE / CKF) then sometimes you just have to lay your money down and back your judgement...regardless of the 1000 voices saying don't do it.
Cheers, as you know I will admit when/if I am proved wrong but sometimes the best results are from going against the crowd.
skc
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Your words, not mine!
What are some of the new evidence that suggest a bright future? Or are you reacting to the price? Look at your transaction records and how you've done when you are reacting to price?
Again, your words not mine.
You know quotes like these are only useful for people who are managing other people's money and make an income on their fees. Now go tell the Japanese one day their market will hit a new high.
And since you think my posts on this threads are nothing more than criticisms that are trying to undermine your methods while making myself look good, this will be the last post I make on your thread.
Good luck.
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MCE was saying at the half year that they expected to have Henderson up to nameplate capacity by June 2012. Since then there has been not a peep out of them. Iirc, and it's been a while since I looked at MCE, they needed a fair bit of new work for that to happen. Unless they are winning lots of new small contracts, I would have expected at least one announcement of a new a contract. The quote book at HY12 was $700m.
It's all a bit too hard for me.
It's all a bit too hard for me.
Well that could have worked out better, if I had bought today I would be holding about 8% more shares for the same capital outlay. It will be interesting to see what the future will bring.
Not very scientific I admit but I think the growth will return and the share price has overshot on the downside.
Yes I am reacting to the price as I did with COH, MTU, NVT, TGA, OKN....
I think the business is worth more than the price offered.
Not sure how much we compare with Japan, our bubble is not quiet as big as theirs was.
Nothing could be further from the truth skc, no insult was intended, you have taught me a lot in particular regarding position sizing and portfolio management.
Not very scientific I admit but I think the growth will return and the share price has overshot on the downside.
Yes I am reacting to the price as I did with COH, MTU, NVT, TGA, OKN....
I think the business is worth more than the price offered.
Not sure how much we compare with Japan, our bubble is not quiet as big as theirs was.
Nothing could be further from the truth skc, no insult was intended, you have taught me a lot in particular regarding position sizing and portfolio management.
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Looks like I was reading the tea leaves this morning!
I'll buy it at 40% of its tangible book value. There's a pretty important question here: This company has a good reputation for quality product, why aren't companies using their product?
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What's the point of raving about things you won't buy???
investment sold
1896 x CKF @ $1.035
The last week I have been tossing and turning, thinking about the debt on the balance sheet. The cash flow should be enough to service the debt but why take the risk? Add to this there are a lot of businesses being priced attractively at the moment without the risk of massive debt/equity.
This exercise has been a bit like flushing almost $100 down the toilet.
1896 x CKF @ $1.035
The last week I have been tossing and turning, thinking about the debt on the balance sheet. The cash flow should be enough to service the debt but why take the risk? Add to this there are a lot of businesses being priced attractively at the moment without the risk of massive debt/equity.
This exercise has been a bit like flushing almost $100 down the toilet.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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Closed at 1.06 to...jeez robusta i think its just a little to easy for you to take a loss.
Having said that .. i must admit that i have thought about doing the same thing, figuring that CKF hasnt actually fallen at all in this latest market pull back, and Jesus H Christ there are some great stocks going cheap at the moment.
And if i had that money (CKF) avalibale today...there's no way in hell id buy CKF
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And if i had that money (CKF) avalibale today...there's no way in hell id buy CKF
What's on your shortlist (and at what price)?
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Robusta - Not sure if you're looking for people to suggest companies to research, but here i go anyway....
Have you checked out DTL? I've been monitoring them for a little while and noticed what I thought was a bit of value presenting itself there quite recently.
(this is by no means a recommendation to buy, just a suggestion to go and research further)
Have you checked out DTL? I've been monitoring them for a little while and noticed what I thought was a bit of value presenting itself there quite recently.
(this is by no means a recommendation to buy, just a suggestion to go and research further)
Thanks Klogg, I bought my first parcel of DTL earlier this month.
Tried to buy some more yesterday after it hit $0.9 , got my order in a bit late. Have left the order in the market at $0.92.
The world of companies I research is very small so if anyone has any suggestions I am more than happy, cheers Klogg.
Investment Increased
Bought 2089 X DTL @ $0.92 = $1921.88
This is basically what I pulled out of CKF, I think the capital has found a better home. In a few years people will be wondering how I managed to pick up DTL under $1.00
This brings my holding to 4001 shares bought at a average around $0.98
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Heaps of cheap stocks around today Robusta - have you considered another margin loan?
You could do pretty well. I don't think anyone could accuse you at buying at the top of the market today?
You could do pretty well. I don't think anyone could accuse you at buying at the top of the market today?
