RMS - Ramelius Resources

[noirua]

For RMS and other Aussie gold miners with earnings in Australia, and in many countries abroad, the recent strength of the Greenback is going to help as the 'tippers' unload gold.
Gold is down from around US$1,900 per ounce to a price of $1,650 or there abouts.
As the Aussie has weakened a great deal we can add $160 to $180 per oz to the gold price for Aussie gold PRODUCERS (from currency high point) -- US$1,810 to $1,830 per oz equivalent.
The general feeling is that the US currency will continue to strengthen and weaken the gold price further as general liquidity tightens worldwide.

 

[noirua]

For RMS and other Aussie gold miners with earnings in Australia, and in many countries abroad, the recent strength of the Greenback is going to help as the 'tippers' unload gold.
Gold is down from around US$1,900 per ounce to a price of $1,650 or there abouts.
As the Aussie has weakened a great deal we can add $160 to $180 per oz to the gold price for Aussie gold PRODUCERS (from currency high point) -- US$1,810 to $1,830 per oz equivalent.
The general feeling is that the US currency will continue to strengthen and weaken the gold price further as general liquidity tightens worldwide.

5 weeks have gone by and the Aussie has strengthened and not weakened. The gold price is up in US$s and down in AU$s. On top of that the RMS stock price is down 17% -- such is life.

 

[mr. jeff]

There are interesting challenges facing RMS at the moment, an end of their low cost high grade production (Wattle Dam) coming in the next few years and a transition to a more run of the mill operation ie. higher costs. Note that Wattle Dam depths are still being drilled and by no means a dead prospect at this stage so there could be extensions to life of mine.

They have new production coming on line early next year, Mt Magnet, for building to around 80 kOZ planned annual. Operating costs total $1000/Oz. First pour expected January 2012. Open cut with grades of 1.5 to 2 g/t. Big change of style. Looks like there could be underground exploration upside here as well. Aiming to hit 200kOz/year production in 2013 (joint Wattle Dam and Mt Magnet), but at the higher costs this is not exciting, large risk of gold price falling and hurting Mt .Magnet.

Current MC is 375M as a 100kOz producer with low cost. 90M in bank.



Large price drop on Friday as seen with many gold producers. If the market remains positive and gold price stays in uptrend then there is a good case for RMS to regain strength, the last 6 weeks have seen a lot of selling, presumably due to the coming end of the large margin production and better opportunities elsewhere ( in gold stocks, pretty well everywhere is opportunity at the moment).

 

[mr. jeff]

RMS has made a very solid looking bottoming move for the cap raising conducted recently at 1.15 and is now moving well up, to around 1.30 recently. This move may continue to around 1.50 where previous interest was. RMS has been a solid performer and may resume its upwards move now with increased volume around 1.15 and solid days up over the last week.

There is talk in the media that perhaps RMS is on the hunt with their cash on hand, will be interesting to see where this talk ends up...

 

[pixel]

RMS has made a very solid looking bottoming move for the cap raising conducted recently at 1.15 and is now moving well up, to around 1.30 recently. This move may continue to around 1.50 where previous interest was. RMS has been a solid performer and may resume its upwards move now with increased volume around 1.15 and solid days up over the last week.

There is talk in the media that perhaps RMS is on the hunt with their cash on hand, will be interesting to see where this talk ends up...

Good points, Mr.Jeff
I wasn't sure how far this post-Cap Rally would go before running out of steam. Therefiore I took profit early in today's Close.



However, there are a number of logical targets overhead, which may well be reached within days. Keeping it on watch...

 

[noirua]

I wasn't sure how far this post-Cap Rally would go before running out of steam. Therefore I took profit early in today's Close. .

The rally was surprising with the cash raising going on and investors panicking to pay their $1.15 shortly before the final bell. Selling might well be a good move with extra stock coming on-stream and profits being taken.
It's never wrong to take a profit!

 

[mr. jeff]

It's never wrong to take a profit!

Well it is when I want the price to keep on going up because I haven't got any profits !

 

[pixel]

Well it is when I want the price to keep on going up because I haven't got any profits !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3eHBbbKKfg

... but you can try and keep your losses small.



Who knows, support may come in around 125, where both long and medium-term EMAs converge. That's where I intend to reload - if nothing better comes up.

 

[noirua]

... but you can try and keep your losses small.

Yep, that is what trading is all about 'keep total discipline and doubt yourself immediately a purchase has been made'. If you buy at $2.00 and decide to sell on a fall to $1.75 THEN DO IT ALWAYS -- the worse thing for a trader is for the stock to recover and you're proud of this, 'YOU'VE FAILED'.

 

[noirua]

Well it is when I want the price to keep on going up because I haven't got any profits !

Unfortunately that euro problem will just not go away and there are so many forced sellers out there waiting to take a profit if one comes their way -- it has created a false market, and that combined with cash raising by companies.
The rally in the west has faltered again and unfortunately Australia is having its tail pulled by the US$, € and Yuan.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

I was in RMS six months ago but switched over to SLR Silver Lake and glad i did. It has had a great run and is a better quality stock in this area.

 

[noirua]

I was in RMS six months ago but switched over to SLR Silver Lake and glad i did. It has had a great run and is a better quality stock in this area.

Yep! -- well done. Hope you got out at the top a few weeks ago. SLR certainly leapt whilst many stocks were drifting in the gold sector.

 

[mr. jeff]

News that Mt Magnet has poured first gold. Good times and hopefully will give the share price some reprieve, has been hammered since double top September.



Low grade ore to blend for the start of production.

 

[noirua]

News that Mt Magnet has poured first gold. Good times and hopefully will give the share price some reprieve, has been hammered since double top September.

Low grade ore to blend for the start of production.

Ramelius has started to creep up of late after falling due to cash held dropping on lower grades than expected at Mount Magnet. Probably well over-done, this fall, as start ups often produce high costs per ounce of gold early on.

 

[willstor]

hmmm down to 49.5 just wondering about pulling the trigger - not a huge amount to lose in a small basket...

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Worth a look. RMS has rejected the lower low and put on 8%. Just a small posi because it's a low turnover stock - today $393,820.

Should gap in the morning and maybe do a bit of a run.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

It's doing a run. 34.5 is probably it's end point. Has just touched 35.

 

[catfish]

What does everyone think of RMS taking over DRM?

RMS has 48m in the bank and already has a 5pc stake in the gold miner. With DRM capitalised at 78m after a long slide in share price this is my prediction.

Prediction -
Reduced volatility in POG which will then trigger

big cap raising by RMS
Takeover offer for DRM

 

[catfish]

Please note also I own RMS and am currently coming last on this months stock tipping comp with this stock.

 

[mr. jeff]

What does everyone think of RMS taking over DRM?

RMS has 48m in the bank and already has a 5pc stake in the gold miner. With DRM capitalised at 78m after a long slide in share price this is my prediction.

Prediction -
Reduced volatility in POG which will then trigger

big cap raising by RMS
Takeover offer for DRM

I don't think that DRM has found enough gold to warrant the takeover at this stage but I haven't kept up with DRM's exact holdings, so will have a look and see what the go is. RMS is doing well and may with this weakness decide to hold off until POG has stabilized a little.