RIV - Riversdale Mining

[Goldmann]

interesting to see old 'golden touch' talbot acquiring more RIV lately at the prices under $9... obviously still very happy with the stock...

good stuff... nice climb so far today.

 

[Goldmann]

well a week later and the price has gone up over ten percent from the recent lows (and talbots purchase!).

making a nice run at present, next goal $11 and retest the previous high after that

 

[Goldmann]

anyone else watching this one sink... been hammered lately...

i expected it to be wounded today, but this is over the top...

 

[bigdog]

Today's ASX ANN
16/09/2008 Change in substantial holding
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00880582

Talbot is still buying now owns 11.27%
-- last purchase 12/9/08

 

[Miner]

Talbot has been buying RIV when it sinking just like he did for SDL

I think he is too smart to spend money in supporting sinking ships

I have never seen SDL to recover even after huge buying and hope RIV will direct differently this time

Cheers

 

[michael_selway]

Today's ASX ANN
16/09/2008 Change in substantial holding
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00880582

Talbot is still buying now owns 11.27%
-- last purchase 12/9/08

Hm its not bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 4.9 15.8 56.2 61.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[Goldmann]

yeah i think its a big positive... Talbot has said he is looking for another Coal company after parting ways with MCC... And good to note he was acquiring large parcels up around $10 recently, so he is obviously confident of a quick snap back.

I had SDL but off loaded due to the sheer amount of shares on the market for a company that is yet to really do anything... seems to get hammered by shorters and every opportunity... RIV appears to have alot less shares on issue, with the volume being vastly reduced... no doubt someone that check that for me...

anyway - i hold and continue to acquire more while its dropping...

 

[bigdog]

ASX announcement today
22/09/2008 Change in substantial holding
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00882162

Talbot Group has further increased ownership to 13.38% from 11.27% reported last week

 

[Goldmann]

Maybe 19.9% is his target by Xmas??? Of course I have no facts behind that!

It certainly is providing a bit of a base at present - almost like an artificial share buy back!

Nice to see it trading back about $9...

 

[bigdog]

Does anyone know what is happening at RIV?

Talbot has been buying and over the past week the share price has crashed

Last trade today at 12:15:27 was $5.0500 and low for the day was $4.5300

Date---- High Low Close Volume
08-Oct-08 6.43 5.44 5.44 946,356
07-Oct-08 6.84 6.30 6.61 1,386,032
06-Oct-08 8.18 7.13 7.32 529,487
03-Oct-08 8.50 8.06 8.28 339,363
02-Oct-08 8.78 8.50 8.58 1,299,786
01-Oct-08 8.71 8.44 8.70 399,708
30-Sep-08 8.48 8.10 8.35 1,815,474
29-Sep-08 9.70 8.84 9.04 755,149
26-Sep-08 9.82 9.38 9.70 800,612

 

[speculator101]

Hi bigdog.
After doing a bit of research (ok 2 hours reading)
I think long-term Riv is fine.
They have 300mil in the bank, and huge plans.
Its the huge plans that are the main issue. 2Billion power plant is def on hold, until the financial crisis calms down. Im sure there are backers out there, but their money can prob buy a lot of things elsewhere, or maybe just keep them afloat!

Huntleys has been very keen on Riv for the past 3 years (broker reports on Rivs website). Back when it was 55cents..1.50..2.11...9.55... Last few valuations before the 'crisis' was upwards of $20.

Riv is still building up their resources, but for the time being, development might be on hold, until they can get more finance for their major Coal project - which MD put at around $800mil. So they have $300, but need $500 more.. mm.
Talbot's stake adds credibility, and hopefully will help with future finance.
After looking at the charts, I think $2.00 is probably where the rot will stop... then again... Maybe Talbot has finally run out of money?

Im not a holder, but plan on being one soon, especially if the share price continues down. this a long term buy only.

BUT def do your own research...

 

[Miner]

Hi bigdog.
After doing a bit of research (ok 2 hours reading)
I think long-term Riv is fine.
They have 300mil in the bank, and huge plans.
Its the huge plans that are the main issue. 2Billion power plant is def on hold, until the financial crisis calms down. Im sure there are backers out there, but their money can prob buy a lot of things elsewhere, or maybe just keep them afloat!

Huntleys has been very keen on Riv for the past 3 years (broker reports on Rivs website). Back when it was 55cents..1.50..2.11...9.55... Last few valuations before the 'crisis' was upwards of $20.

Riv is still building up their resources, but for the time being, development might be on hold, until they can get more finance for their major Coal project - which MD put at around $800mil. So they have $300, but need $500 more.. mm.
Talbot's stake adds credibility, and hopefully will help with future finance.
After looking at the charts, I think $2.00 is probably where the rot will stop... then again... Maybe Talbot has finally run out of money?

Im not a holder, but plan on being one soon, especially if the share price continues down. this a long term buy only.

BUT def do your own research...

Speculator 101

Very good posting

I may add that Talbot's investment has not always been rosy. Example SDL
But he is a shrewed long term investor,
Primarily RIV is cash rich primarily from the purchase by Tata Steel of its some holding at a price much higher than prevailing market price.

RIV came down to $2.18 in recent turmoil.

IMO With iron ore, steel and other commodity market being at a downward trend I would also wait for RIV to come down to $1.95-$2.00 even if it rose very high recently.

It is the market demand and lot of finance (tough task in current market) to raise as you rightly pointed out

I do not hold RIV but waiting patiently to review the market and prevailing situation of coking coal market when RIV goes down lower than $2.

Cheers

 

[Goldmann]

Well, Talbot buys another 2% at prices ranging from $6 down to $2.50... he must be sitting on a huge paper loss for his 15 odd pc stake right now...

Does give some confidence about the long term future, but I do know that he is a punter at heart... at prices this low - perhaps he could move for a take over sooner rather than later...

An economist from Macquarie has just predicted Coal will get further hammered in 2009, and will be very slow to recover moving forward...

Thank god RIV have that cash in the bank right now... I think I will wait to sub $2 before I stock up with any more...it seems headed there with a bullet...

 

[Miner]

Well, Talbot buys another 2% at prices ranging from $6 down to $2.50... he must be sitting on a huge paper loss for his 15 odd pc stake right now...

Does give some confidence about the long term future, but I do know that he is a punter at heart... at prices this low - perhaps he could move for a take over sooner rather than later...

An economist from Macquarie has just predicted Coal will get further hammered in 2009, and will be very slow to recover moving forward...

Thank god RIV have that cash in the bank right now... I think I will wait to sub $2 before I stock up with any more...it seems headed there with a bullet...

Talbot has been buying RIV when it sinking just like he did for SDL

I think he is too smart to spend money in supporting sinking ships

I have never seen SDL to recover even after huge buying and hope RIV will direct differently this time

Cheers

Refer to ABC news http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/02/2435518.htm?section=justin
What could happen to RIV and SDL shareholders should the court find Ken Talbot was guilty and send him to jail ?

Alternatively he may start selling his fortune investment to support his legal cost

 

[Goldmann]

hey Miner - starting to think we have similar portfolios - or atleast similar watchlists!

no idea about what happens to RIV if talbot goes to the slammer...

but Talbot Group have been buying heavily in the last week and now up to just under 19%. at this rate they will hit 19.9% before the end of the week.

Then what?

 

[Miner]

hey Miner - starting to think we have similar portfolios - or atleast similar watchlists!

no idea about what happens to RIV if talbot goes to the slammer...

but Talbot Group have been buying heavily in the last week and now up to just under 19%. at this rate they will hit 19.9% before the end of the week.

Then what?

Interesting observation Goldmann

I think we have similar watch list if not the similar portfolios

I am in the process of being a bankrupt the way my portfolio going so better do not follow my trend

Technically I believe RIV is a good stock. It has the metallurgical coal of huge amount which is a scarce commodity and will be more scarce.

Unfortunately metallurgical coal demand is directly related to steel demand (and hence iron ore, vanadium, chrome, managanese, moly) and that is why RIV (In my opinion) is sinking.

RIV is also owned by Tata Group (www.tatasteel.com) who also owns Corus Steel and Jaguar.

So I believe even if Talbot follows Alan Bond's foot step RIV will be still kicking

On another observation I noticed for some reason under ASF counter the number of your posting as shown is stagnant between 99 to 100 . None of my business but that a piece of stat.

 

[DowJones]

Their presentation at the mining club looks very interesting... lots of potential if the world can get through the GFC and the China stimulus package kicking in.

As a Sundance Resources share holder (sufferring ) I am looking to get some RIV - following the Talbot formula. I agree that Riversdale will have to be a long term position

Does anyone know how stable politically is Mozambique?

I already have exposure to Cameroon via SDL...

 

[bigdog]

First RIV posting for sometime and the SP upward trend looking OK!

SP RIV $3.65 +0.060 1.67% high today 3.95 low today 3.65 199,567 shares $743,624 @ 18-Mar 10:48:36 AM
52-wk High 12.1000
52-wk Low 1.5550

ASX ANN today
18-03-2009 10:01 AM RIV Coal Quality Up-Date

Mozambique Project - Coal Quality Update

• Pilot scale coking tests have commenced for Riversdale and Tata Steel’s Benga coking coal project.
  
• Preliminary results indicate that the Benga coking coals will be premium hard coking coals. Further details are reported in this release.
  
• Mr Mallyon said “Coking results continue to confirm that the quality of the Benga coking coals will be equal to the best coking coals sold in the market today. This reaffirms our belief that Mozambique will become a key coking coal supplier to steel mills globally.”

Coke tests confirm “Premium hard” coking coal potential for Benga
• Coke strength of 71 (CSR) from first pilot scale coke test
• Pilot scale coke testing programme to be completed in the 2nd Qtr of 2009

 

[kenny]

I don't hold this (or any coal miners yet).

What do people think about the possibility of M&A action? RIV seems to be an attractive candidate with assets, cash, cash flow and no crippling debt problem.

Still reading about RIV. Are they in JV with Tata to do Benga?

regards,

Kenny

 

[Sean K]

Few Coal players going for a run. Market thinks time to spend some cash and pick up some of the more distressed commods. Been watching this for a few months with interest but never got my fingers dirty. IDIOT!!

How about the volume spike on break up?