Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Risk

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Warning ….Please Read
Remember all the scamming related to Share Express..well they have gone but have been reinvented under different names but with the same financial backer..Olive Financial Markets....please read the following which I have taken from another article...
  1. Surfers Paradise: The Gold Coast is a hotspot for financial scams in Australia.
  2. Ricarmo Pty Ltd is an "Authorised Representative", or if you like, it is legally registered to provide financial advice, though it's Financial Services Guide provided by a company called Olive Financial Markets Pty Ltd of 87-97 Liverpool Street, Sydney www.ricarmo.com.au/wp-content/themes/ricarmo/pdf/OliveFinancialMarketsFSGOctober2017.pdf
  3. Olive Financial Markets Pty Ltd www.olivefinancialmarkets.com.au/contact-us/ has other Authorised Representatives who are Gold Coast based managed superannuation advisors, including:
  4. Camori Pty Ltd https://camoriinvestments.com.au (see home page footer for it's Authorised Representative number). Although Camori operates out of the Gold Coast, it gives it's address as identical to that of Olive Financial Markets Pty Ltd in Sydney.
  5. Paradise Financial Group also operates out of the Gold Coast but gives the same street number address http://www.paradisefinancial.com.au/#5 as Olive Financial Markets Pty Ltd in Sydney.
  6. Sharescope http://www.sharescope.com.au owned and run by Markets Pty Ltd is another business which uses Olive Financial Markets Pty Ltd's Financial Services License (if you check the Australian Financial Services License number that they give against the ASIC register). Interestingly, they are at No. 89 Liverpool Street but in an identical Suite Number. Oh! No. 87 and No. 89 are the same building, so it's actually the exact same office as the others despite the different street number! Tricky!
  7. Ricarmo Pty Ltd gives its address as
    The Gateway, Ground Floor,
    50 Appel Street,
    Surfers Paradise, QLD, 4217
  8. It so happens that ASIC raided three businesses at this address (see next item for how we know this) a month ago, as part of an investigation into investment fraud: (www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/asic-sends-police-to-almost-raid-channel-seven-20170920-gylewt – Paywall, but you should get one look for free; or www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/business/detectives-raid-surfers-paradise-businesses/news-story/6bd9fa317c8a2ca34b0b6e20bfbdd5e3)
  9. Only two of the three businesses are named in the stories viz. Camori Investments and Paradise Financial Group. The third business is unknown, but if you check the White Pages for Channel 7 (bear with me!), you'll see that Channel 7 is in the same building as Ricarmo. Now, if you've been reading carefully, you'll remember that the AFR story in the previous item says that the Camori/Paradice Financial raid was on Channel 7's Gold Coast building. So, it does look likely that Ricarmo is that mysterious third company that was raided in that office. To sum up, Ricarmo is an Authorised Representative of Olive Financial, which in turn, shares an office and a building with the two raided companies back in Sydney, as, it appears, does Ricarmo share with them their raided operational office on the Gold Coast. So many coincidences!
You'll also find negative reviews for a number of the companies above on the web if you Google them. All in all, with so many risk factors, maybe it's worth waiting until ASIC puts out an all clear before giving them your hard earned cash!
 
basilio said:
What does risk look like world wide ? This graph was produced at the start of 2021
Click to expand...
and now it's 2022 and I bet the relativities have changed.


1. Last Wednesday, a few hours before Russian tanks began rolling into Ukraine, alarms went off inside Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Centre, warning of a never-before-seen piece of “wiper” malware that appeared aimed at the country’s government ministries and financial institutions.

Within three hours, Microsoft threw itself into the middle of a ground war in Europe — from 5,500 miles away. The threat centre, north of Seattle, had been on high alert, and it quickly picked apart the malware, named it “FoxBlade” and notified Ukraine’s top cyberdefence authority. Within three hours, Microsoft’s virus detection systems had been updated to block the code, which erases — “wipes” — data on computers in a network.

2. Koda Capital is in full mea culpa mode after a private note urged clients to fill their boots with “disproportionately oversold” Russian stocks, which the firm argued are “well-placed to cope with current and likely future sanctions”. Cue outrage.

Setting aside the moral implications of a wealth manager pointing its nearest and dearest into an underweight war thematic, there’s the minor issue of its general advisability.

Major asset managers all over the world are yanking their capital from Russian investments and index providers are axing them from emerging market benchmarks.
“The Russian market is effectively closed,” Dimitris Melas, chairman of MSCI’s index policy committee, told the Financial Times on Tuesday. “It is now uninvestable.”
Click to expand...

www.afr.com

Koda Capital’s crazy Russia bet

Introducing Koda’s Russian fund manager of choice, Prosperity Capital.
www.afr.com www.afr.com

.................. I hope their Risk Disclosure bit at the back of their documents is thorough. "Hello, Shine Lawyers?"
 
Last edited:
Dona Ferentes said:
and now it's 2022 and I bet the relativities have changed.


1. Last Wednesday, a few hours before Russian tanks began rolling into Ukraine, alarms went off inside Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Centre, warning of a never-before-seen piece of “wiper” malware that appeared aimed at the country’s government ministries and financial institutions.

Within three hours, Microsoft threw itself into the middle of a ground war in Europe — from 5,500 miles away. The threat centre, north of Seattle, had been on high alert, and it quickly picked apart the malware, named it “FoxBlade” and notified Ukraine’s top cyberdefence authority. Within three hours, Microsoft’s virus detection systems had been updated to block the code, which erases — “wipes” — data on computers in a network.

2. Koda Capital is in full mea culpa mode after a private note urged clients to fill their boots with “disproportionately oversold” Russian stocks, which the firm argued are “well-placed to cope with current and likely future sanctions”. Cue outrage.

Setting aside the moral implications of a wealth manager pointing its nearest and dearest into an underweight war thematic, there’s the minor issue of its general advisability.

Major asset managers all over the world are yanking their capital from Russian investments and index providers are axing them from emerging market benchmarks.


www.afr.com

Koda Capital’s crazy Russia bet

Introducing Koda’s Russian fund manager of choice, Prosperity Capital.
www.afr.com www.afr.com

.................. I hope their Risk Disclosure bit at the back of their documents is thorough. "Hello, Shine Lawyers?"
Click to expand...
Thanks @Dona Ferentes .

I was thinking similarly when reading the AFR this morning.

Having been involved in many risk/benefit analyses in life it was always easier to make a benefit analysis.

Le cygne noir always lurked for risk.

Ask the little old lady sitting on the bench outside Coles is as good a risk analysis as you will get atm and much cheaper.

gg
 
I see nothing but Risk atm. starting with Europe.

Europe :
War
Refugees
Oil
Food
Industrial Production
Supply chain
Climate/Weather
Covid resurgence

USA :
Political instability
Stagflation
Supply chain
Taiwan/South Korea Protection/War
Social conflict as in Rich/Poor Black/Other Religious Right/Modernity
Further China disagreements, not war (yet).
Covid resurgence

Asia. :
China hegemony
China market for our exports
N Korea
China/India mini-wars
Refugee crisis ( Rohyngia, India internal, India Kashmir, )

South America : Don't know much about them. Political foment. Rich/Poor.

Africa : Don't know much about them. Political foment. Rich/Poor.

Australia/NZ/Pacific : China hegemony,
Iron/Coal exports,
Poor political leadership.
Corruption of Politicians.
Global risk to products of our quarry,
Climate change.

I liquidated my Trading Portfolio in to Cash last week.

I'll have a look at the ASX stocks in my SMSF at 11.30 am tomorrow when all the madmen have done their bit with downsies and upsies and make some decisions.

I certainly won't be buying.

gg
 
frugal.rock said:
I did a bit of buying on Friday... fwiw.

Most of what you mentioned is priced in... said with trader tongue in cheek, unless things take a turn for even worse in Europe.
Hopefully not, for everyone's sake.
Click to expand...
A reasonable point.

Although the inputs in to decision making are changing much more rapidly.

I've got a bad feeling atm.

It's just the Vibe. The Constitution. Mabo.

I just thought I'd throw in my 2c worth and get a discussion going on Global Market Risk.

gg
 
Another thing coming up is the Russian debt obligation. I think they paid in the region of 180million just recently and have a $630million coming up. I think they said they were paying in rules but the interest has to be US $.

So it potentially has a default smell to it
 
moXJO said:
Another thing coming up is the Russian debt obligation. I think they paid in the region of 180million just recently and have a $630million coming up. I think they said they were paying in rules but the interest has to be US $.

So it potentially has a default smell to it
Click to expand...
Inflation is what the big guys tell us will cause a panic rather than a billion or so in defaults.

I'm watching but still inclined to stay in the market.

gg
 
moXJO said:
So it potentially has a default smell to it
Click to expand...
Russia of course has plenty of gold bullion.

`Russian Gold.jpg
BUT, - not much good to them if they can't use it

And like oil, Russia holds some of the world's largest reserves of gold — some 2,300 tons of it, worth nearly $140 billion.
The huge reserves of the precious metal were built up over the past decade and a half, and were intended to be a sort of economic insurance policy for the country.
But as with oil, sanctions are making it incredibly difficult for Russia to actually realize the value of its holdings.
"This is why they bought their gold, it was for a situation just like this," Cork University Business School lecturer Fergal O'Connor told Bloomberg. "But if no one will trade it with you, it doesn't matter."
Last week, London's gold marketplace — the most important center in the world for bullion — banned all bars from Russian refineries, effectively shutting it out of the global trade.
The US Senate followed that move with a new bill that would prohibit US citizens from making any transaction that involves Russian gold.
"Russia's massive gold supply is one of the few remaining assets that Putin can use to keep his country's economy from falling even further," Maine Sen. Angus King said in a statement. "By sanctioning these reserves, we will further isolate Russia from the world's economy and increase the difficulty of Putin's increasingly-costly military campaign."
 
Country Lad said:
Russia of course has plenty of gold bullion.

View attachment 139296
BUT, - not much good to them if they can't use it

And like oil, Russia holds some of the world's largest reserves of gold — some 2,300 tons of it, worth nearly $140 billion.
The huge reserves of the precious metal were built up over the past decade and a half, and were intended to be a sort of economic insurance policy for the country.
But as with oil, sanctions are making it incredibly difficult for Russia to actually realize the value of its holdings.
"This is why they bought their gold, it was for a situation just like this," Cork University Business School lecturer Fergal O'Connor told Bloomberg. "But if no one will trade it with you, it doesn't matter."
Last week, London's gold marketplace — the most important center in the world for bullion — banned all bars from Russian refineries, effectively shutting it out of the global trade.
The US Senate followed that move with a new bill that would prohibit US citizens from making any transaction that involves Russian gold.
"Russia's massive gold supply is one of the few remaining assets that Putin can use to keep his country's economy from falling even further," Maine Sen. Angus King said in a statement. "By sanctioning these reserves, we will further isolate Russia from the world's economy and increase the difficulty of Putin's increasingly-costly military campaign."
Click to expand...
Russia may be forced to swap or use Gold contracts to maintain their armaments and economy, both of which Putin has shredded.

Mr. Market seems to have priced this in. And is still doing so.

Gold may fall back to support at $USD1750 to $USD1800.

GOLD_2022-03-21_15-42-17.png

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I see nothing but Risk atm. starting with Europe.

Europe :
War
Refugees
Oil
Food
Industrial Production
Supply chain
Climate/Weather
Covid resurgence

USA :
Political instability
Stagflation
Supply chain
Taiwan/South Korea Protection/War
Social conflict as in Rich/Poor Black/Other Religious Right/Modernity
Further China disagreements, not war (yet).
Covid resurgence

Asia. :
China hegemony
China market for our exports
N Korea
China/India mini-wars
Refugee crisis ( Rohyngia, India internal, India Kashmir, )

South America : Don't know much about them. Political foment. Rich/Poor.

Africa : Don't know much about them. Political foment. Rich/Poor.

Australia/NZ/Pacific : China hegemony,
Iron/Coal exports,
Poor political leadership.
Corruption of Politicians.
Global risk to products of our quarry,
Climate change.

I liquidated my Trading Portfolio in to Cash last week.

I'll have a look at the ASX stocks in my SMSF at 11.30 am tomorrow when all the madmen have done their bit with downsies and upsies and make some decisions.

I certainly won't be buying.

gg
Click to expand...
I think the big risk at present is the bifurcation of global systems into what is conveniently if perhaps misleadingly called:
1. The 'Rule of Law' nations, usually liberal democracies
2. The autocracies that can verge on kleptocracies.

The first tend to be more effective and efficient, forming alliances and with a basis of trust oiling the cogs.

Gnawing away as risks in 1) are the actions of some, often the self appointed 'entitled ones' resorting to lawfare and other coercive actions.
 
Country Lad said:
Russia of course has plenty of gold bullion.

View attachment 139296
BUT, - not much good to them if they can't use it

And like oil, Russia holds some of the world's largest reserves of gold — some 2,300 tons of it, worth nearly $140 billion.
The huge reserves of the precious metal were built up over the past decade and a half, and were intended to be a sort of economic insurance policy for the country.
But as with oil, sanctions are making it incredibly difficult for Russia to actually realize the value of its holdings.
"This is why they bought their gold, it was for a situation just like this," Cork University Business School lecturer Fergal O'Connor told Bloomberg. "But if no one will trade it with you, it doesn't matter."
Last week, London's gold marketplace — the most important center in the world for bullion — banned all bars from Russian refineries, effectively shutting it out of the global trade.
The US Senate followed that move with a new bill that would prohibit US citizens from making any transaction that involves Russian gold.
"Russia's massive gold supply is one of the few remaining assets that Putin can use to keep his country's economy from falling even further," Maine Sen. Angus King said in a statement. "By sanctioning these reserves, we will further isolate Russia from the world's economy and increase the difficulty of Putin's increasingly-costly military campaign."
Click to expand...
Chinese and Indians LOVE gold they will even risk long prison sentences to smuggle it in , and those two nations alone are about one-third of the global population

gold will be fine

those bits of paper ( promises of things that might be ) might have the problems
 

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