3 veiws of a secret said:
Noirua...............
Any personal thoughts where it might end today?
RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED Overnight Price: $13.56
ABN Amro rates the stock as Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Target $15.58 (was $25.00). A revised view on the US housing market has flowed through into cuts to earnings estimates for the company, the broker''s net profit forecasts falling in FY07 by 10.2% to US$797.1m, in FY08 by 19.4% to US$945.9m and in FY09 by 21.8% to US$947.6m.
The changes to forecasts represent a combination of rising costs and falling volumes, the broker now expecting the key states of Florida, Arizona and Nevada to decline faster than the national average in coming years.
As a result the broker has downgraded its rating on the stock.
Target price is $15.58 Current Price is $13.56 Difference:$2.02 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED Overnight Price: $14.25
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Upgrade to Outperform - The result was in line with the broker’s expectations, but earnings guidance came in below consensus so the analysts flag possible market downgrades.
Due to potential headwinds, the broker has lowered its target on the stock by 50c to $18.50, but raised its recommendation to Outperform, likely as a result of the recent share price fall.
Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$4.25 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - The broker has reduced the price target from $24.04 to $17.93 in response to a drop in US peer multiples from 18.2x to 13.2x. However, the broker remians confident in RIN, noting firstly that it is trading at a significant discount to European peers, and that concrete prices in the US tend to rise during a housing downturn.
The broker notes reaffirmation of guidance at 18-23% growth does not take into account likely CPI price rises in FY07.
Target price is $17.93 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.68 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - The broker notes the quarterly result was slightly above its forecast but slightly below market consensus, which the reaffirmed earnings guidance shows were too high.
Following announcement of a 5% share buyback the broker has lifted its EPS estimates in FY07 by 0.8% to US87.8c and in FY08 by 1.8% to US96.7c.
In the broker''s view the current share price factors in the potential downside earnings risk.
Target price is $21.03 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$6.78 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Added
Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform - Broker keeps the faith in the company''s strong fundamentals, but also believes new acquisitions are needed to get rid of the current monkey on Rinker''s back.
Rinker is able to debt finance an acquisition up to US$2bn, Macquarie believes.
Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$7.25 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy - The analysts see the result as strong and view the stock as attractively priced at current levels.
However, they have reduced their target on the stock by 6% to $18.00, due to lower earnings and multiple expectations.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.75 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SB Citigroup rates the stock as Upgrade to Buy from Hold, Medium Risk - Target $17.35 (was $21.05). The broker notes quarterly profit of US$206m was about 10% below expectations, with margin growth in aggregates also somewhat disappointing in its view.
To factor in a market that appears less bullish than previously expected the broker has trimmed its earnings estimates, with EPS in FY07 down 3.9% to US92.6c, in FY08 down 7.3% to US96.5c and in FY09 down 9.9% to US98.7c.
It suggests at current levels there is now limited downside especially given an upcoming share buyback and a strong balance sheet, so the broker has upgraded its rating.
Valuation is $17.35.
Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.10 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UBS rates the stock as Neutral 2 - While the analysts see the quarter as excellent, they are of the view that US housing concerns will continue to dominate and that margin pressures are likely to rise.
Target price is $17.55 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.30 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
US gloom for Rinker
Back
Date: 20/7/2006
Author: Henry Byrne
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 21
Shares in Australian-listed international construction materials group Rinker have fallen to a 12-month low. The slump comes as new figures show confidence among US home builders is at its lowest point since 1991. The American Index of Builders' Confidence fell three points to 39 in July 2006. Economists had been expecting a figure of 41. Rinker makes 80 per cent of its earnings from the US market and about 56 per cent of those are from the housing sector. Its shares fell $A0.19 on 19 July 2006 to close at $A13.56. This is almost 40 per cent down on its high of $A22.22 reached just three months earlier
thx
MS