RIN - Rinker Group

[scsl]

Do you hodl RIN?

thx

MS

yes, i bought at 15.66, 15.75, 16.81 when the stock was on the way down... im also looking to buy more this week.

i think that RIN might come out with good news this tuesday when it releases its quarterly update. something along the lines of "despite continued weakness in the US housing sector, we continue to believe that we can deliver shareholder value by increasing sales/profit and market share".

this extract is from Huntleys' Your Money Weekly:

...RIN has not yet experienced a cyclical contraction however the balance sheet is in excellent shape to withstand and perhaps benefit.

(Huntleys' believe it is a good buying opportunity up to $17.60! RIN last traded at a 16.6% discount to this.)

in the past, RIN management have delivered regular profit upgrades regardless of the strength in the US housing sector. who knows, this may continue to happen (although with a little less frequency)...

 

[michael_selway]

yes, i bought at 15.66, 15.75, 16.81 when the stock was on the way down... im also looking to buy more this week.

(Huntleys' believe it is a good buying opportunity up to $17.60! RIN last traded at a 16.6% discount to this.)

in the past, RIN management have delivered regular profit upgrades regardless of the strength in the US housing sector. who knows, this may continue to happen (although with a little less frequency)...

thats true, but do u know what, im predicting the first ever profit downgrade by RIN for the next half year results, i know its against the trend in the past, but thats how i see it unless it does M&A, then things may change

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 106.7 127.2 139.0 149.5
DPS 78.0 46.3 48.1 49.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.2 11.5 19.3%
Year Ending 30-03-08 139.0 10.6 9.3%

thx

MS

 

[pacer]

I was tempted to go long CFD's just before this latest round of gravity on the SP, real glad I diddn't !!!!!!!!!! Used number 1 rule...the trend is your friend, still waiting for the turn around.
Anyone know if the 50c payout applies to CFD's aswell?, cause that'd make it worth while buying this week.

 

[michael_selway]

I was tempted to go long CFD's just before this latest round of gravity on the SP, real glad I diddn't !!!!!!!!!! Used number 1 rule...the trend is your friend, still waiting for the turn around.
Anyone know if the 50c payout applies to CFD's aswell?, cause that'd make it worth while buying this week.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-million-shares/2006/07/17/1152988464870.html

Sharebuyback again

it means they arent looking to grow, and ist on market

thx

MS

 

[Fab]

Maybe a stupid question but what is the obvious benefit of a share buyback ???

 

[Realist]

Maybe a stupid question but what is the obvious benefit of a share buyback ???

I am cynical about share buy backs.

One of the obvious benefits of a buyback is the directors of a company can issue themselves and their mates a massive amount of share options, when they do that though they dillute the EPS - because more shares in the market equals lower earnings per share of course.

So they buy them back later - the buy back increases EPS cause there are less shares in the market and therefore it increases the share price.

Who wins? The directors.

The shareholders are happy, but they forget that there should not have been so many shares out there to buy back, so in reality they don't win. It only seems that way.

I am not saying Rinker do this, have not even looked at their figures, but some companies do though. And first did so decades ago.

Rinker should be buying properties not Rinker shares in my mind.

 

[Julia]

Realist

Can you expand on your statement:

"Rinker should be buying properties......"

Thanks

Julia

 

[Realist]

Realist

Can you expand on your statement:

"Rinker should be buying properties......"

Thanks

Julia

All I am saying is I am wary of share buy backs. I do not know what they should be doing with their money having spent no time studying Rinker, anything but share buy backs IMHO.

Actually looking at the outstanding shares, I probably take it back - it does not seem that directors are issuing options to themselves all over the place.

Sorry it was just a rant, RIN seem to have no issue with ever increasing outstanding shares. Many other companies do though.

 

[Realist]

Looking at RIN's fundamentals quickly it looks a good buy, and directors do not seem to be issuing themselves large options.

I take it all back, I'd buy RIN by the looks of it probably.

(I'm still suspicious of buy backs though)

 

[noirua]

Excellent! Provided Rinker can buy-back shares at around these levels. They probably decided that the best investment, in the sector, is infact Rinker Group and they probably think they are about to buy $1 for just 75 cents - or is it they're afraid of the stock continuing its fall to $12?

 

[scsl]

I was tempted to go long CFD's just before this latest round of gravity on the SP, real glad I diddn't !!!!!!!!!! Used number 1 rule...the trend is your friend, still waiting for the turn around.
Anyone know if the 50c payout applies to CFD's aswell?, cause that'd make it worth while buying this week.

yes, provided you buy the CFDs before 19 july (ex-div date), your CFD provider will credit your account on the evening of the 19th - that's what my IG stockbroker told me so i'm assuming it goes for all CFD providers.

 

[michael_selway]

yes, provided you buy the CFDs before 19 july (ex-div date), your CFD provider will credit your account on the evening of the 19th - that's what my IG stockbroker told me so i'm assuming it goes for all CFD providers.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Rinkers-net-profit-up-14/2006/07/18/1153166347820.html

Rinker's net profit up 14%
Email Print Normal font Large font July 18, 2006 - 8:14AM

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AdvertisementRinker's net profit rose 14 per cent to $US206 million in the first quarter.

Comparable net profit, excluding one-off items being a $US20 million profit on the sale of a Las Vegas quarry in April 2005, rose 28 per cent in the three months to June 30, 2006.

Rinker said it expected earnings per ordinary share (EPS) to be 13 to 21 per cent higher this financial year at 84 to 90 US cents.

That forecast was excluding one-off gains from last year's divestments and the financing impact of a special dividend and proposed capital return, which was estimated at two US cents per share.

Rinker chief executive David Clarke said it was difficult to predict the extent of the housing slowdown in some markets.

"Overall, it is difficult to predict the extent of the housing slowdown in some markets, and cost pressures continue in areas like diesel and ocean freight," Mr Clarke said.

"However our cost reduction program - together with ongoing price increases and continuing solid construction demand in major states - should lift profitability in line with our previous guidance, which remains unchanged."

Rinker said the outlook for US construction activity remained positive, with non-residential/commercial and infrastructure activity forecast to offset a decline in housing in the second half of the 2006 calendar year.

Mr Clarke said Rinker's position in high growth states should continue to underpin its performance.

"The medium to long term fundamentals of high population and employment growth, low personal taxes, and strong state fiscal positions are unchanged," he said.

"We are seeing a slowdown in housing in some areas, where house prices have increased dramatically due to heavy demand and supply constraints," he said.

"This correction is needed and may have a significant impact in these areas. However, housing demand remains strong in other parts of our key states, backed up by solid or improving commercial and infrastructure activity."

Rinker said that in Australia, housing approvals appear to be bottoming, with recovery expected from next calendar year.

Commercial and infrastructure activity continued to underpin construction, with total activity levels remaining close to steady.

Mr Clarke also said Rinker had stepped up its search for value-adding acquisitions, both bolt-ons and larger opportunities.

"The recent restructuring of Rinker's balance sheet with a special dividend and a proposed capital return, will not impact significantly on the group's ability to handle a major acquisition," he said.

Rinker said it planned to buy up to 45 million shares on market as part of a capital management program.

In the first quarter, Rinker's US subsidiary Rinker Materials Corporation lifted its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) by 17 per cent.

Continuing strong demand in most markets - particularly Florida, Arizona and Nevada - and higher prices, together with operational cost savings, helped offset cost increases and drive profits higher.

Readymix lifted trading revenue by three per cent in local currency terms but EBIT fell six per cent, which Rinker said was mainly due to lower volumes particularly in NSW and the timing of the Easter shutdown compared to the previous year.

As previously indicated, earnings per ordinary share are expected to be 13% to 21% up over the result for the year ended March 2006 – excluding one-off gains from last year’s divestments and the financing impact of the special dividend and proposed capital return (estimated at two US cents per share). EPS is therefore forecast to range from 84 to 90 US cents. (Note: This excludes the impact of the buyback just announced).

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 106.7 127.2 139.0 149.1
DPS 78.0 46.3 48.1 49.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.2 11.6 19.3%
Year Ending 30-03-08 139.0 10.6 9.3%

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Rinker on a stock watch list: http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Stocks-to-watch-14/2006/07/18/1153166348671.html

 

[noirua]

Good grief, I seem to have stayed on the Rinker lift that is heading for the 14$ floor. Only pleasures are the 90 cents divi's and 50 cents capital return, the latter arrives next month.
Closed in the US at US$53.68 with the sentiment score at a disastrous 26.

The buy-back does not restart until mid-August and this level looks even more disastrous on the chart. Open water ahead or is it white water rapids.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Well I've got on the Rinker bandwagon @ $13.73......was today a normal days trading? :headshake

 

[noirua]

Well I've got on the Rinker bandwagon @ $13.73......was today a normal days trading? :headshake

NO! It wasn't a normal trading day as Rinker went XC the 50 cent capital return, payable on 17th August. The XC remains against the stock during the trading day the company went XC and should be removed at the start of trading on Thursday.

 

[noirua]

Rinker started trading on the NYSE at US$52.29 and rose to US$55.35 before falling away in the last hour to US$54.83, up US$1.15. Trading amounted to 113,100 ADR's.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Rinker started trading on the NYSE at US$52.29 and rose to US$55.35 before falling away in the last hour to US$54.83, up US$1.15. Trading amounted to 113,100 ADR's.

Noirua...............
Any personal thoughts where it might end today?

 

[michael_selway]

Noirua...............
Any personal thoughts where it might end today?

RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED Overnight Price: $13.56
ABN Amro rates the stock as Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Target $15.58 (was $25.00). A revised view on the US housing market has flowed through into cuts to earnings estimates for the company, the broker''s net profit forecasts falling in FY07 by 10.2% to US$797.1m, in FY08 by 19.4% to US$945.9m and in FY09 by 21.8% to US$947.6m.
The changes to forecasts represent a combination of rising costs and falling volumes, the broker now expecting the key states of Florida, Arizona and Nevada to decline faster than the national average in coming years.

As a result the broker has downgraded its rating on the stock.

Target price is $15.58 Current Price is $13.56 Difference:$2.02 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED Overnight Price: $14.25
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Upgrade to Outperform - The result was in line with the broker’s expectations, but earnings guidance came in below consensus so the analysts flag possible market downgrades.
Due to potential headwinds, the broker has lowered its target on the stock by 50c to $18.50, but raised its recommendation to Outperform, likely as a result of the recent share price fall.


Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$4.25 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - The broker has reduced the price target from $24.04 to $17.93 in response to a drop in US peer multiples from 18.2x to 13.2x. However, the broker remians confident in RIN, noting firstly that it is trading at a significant discount to European peers, and that concrete prices in the US tend to rise during a housing downturn.
The broker notes reaffirmation of guidance at 18-23% growth does not take into account likely CPI price rises in FY07.


Target price is $17.93 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.68 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - The broker notes the quarterly result was slightly above its forecast but slightly below market consensus, which the reaffirmed earnings guidance shows were too high.
Following announcement of a 5% share buyback the broker has lifted its EPS estimates in FY07 by 0.8% to US87.8c and in FY08 by 1.8% to US96.7c.

In the broker''s view the current share price factors in the potential downside earnings risk.


Target price is $21.03 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$6.78 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Added
Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform - Broker keeps the faith in the company''s strong fundamentals, but also believes new acquisitions are needed to get rid of the current monkey on Rinker''s back.
Rinker is able to debt finance an acquisition up to US$2bn, Macquarie believes.


Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$7.25 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy - The analysts see the result as strong and view the stock as attractively priced at current levels.
However, they have reduced their target on the stock by 6% to $18.00, due to lower earnings and multiple expectations.


Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.75 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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SB Citigroup rates the stock as Upgrade to Buy from Hold, Medium Risk - Target $17.35 (was $21.05). The broker notes quarterly profit of US$206m was about 10% below expectations, with margin growth in aggregates also somewhat disappointing in its view.
To factor in a market that appears less bullish than previously expected the broker has trimmed its earnings estimates, with EPS in FY07 down 3.9% to US92.6c, in FY08 down 7.3% to US96.5c and in FY09 down 9.9% to US98.7c.

It suggests at current levels there is now limited downside especially given an upcoming share buyback and a strong balance sheet, so the broker has upgraded its rating.

Valuation is $17.35.


Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.10 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


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UBS rates the stock as Neutral 2 - While the analysts see the quarter as excellent, they are of the view that US housing concerns will continue to dominate and that margin pressures are likely to rise.

Target price is $17.55 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.30 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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US gloom for Rinker

Back
Date: 20/7/2006
Author: Henry Byrne
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 21
Shares in Australian-listed international construction materials group Rinker have fallen to a 12-month low. The slump comes as new figures show confidence among US home builders is at its lowest point since 1991. The American Index of Builders' Confidence fell three points to 39 in July 2006. Economists had been expecting a figure of 41. Rinker makes 80 per cent of its earnings from the US market and about 56 per cent of those are from the housing sector. Its shares fell $A0.19 on 19 July 2006 to close at $A13.56. This is almost 40 per cent down on its high of $A22.22 reached just three months earlier

thx

MS

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Mr Selway !
Many thanks indeed for info supplied ....... Seems like their's action on this stock ie upward and onward, now that it has reached it's lows. Shall trade RIN closely today.
Adios