RIN - Rinker Group

[Realist]

RIN is a good example of how the SP is not dependent on the quality of the company and is why I don't get too carried away with enthusiasm when someone talks about buying a company on which they have done all the research and concluded it is "undervalued" and therefore must make them money.

All it takes is some negative housing data to come out of the US and the SP plummets, then some more positive data is released, and woop de doo, the SP takes off again.

The company hasn't done anything differently in the meantime, except possibly to point out that their business is not entirely dependent on US housing.

Julia

Hi Julia, I think you are confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment..

They are two completely different entities.

The intrinsic value of RIN is a debatable topic, but many agree the fair value of its shares is above $13. Hence why I bought and why many many others bought around or just under $13.

You are confusing the intrinsic value or fundamental value with market sentiment. Of course RIN will go up and down slightly on daily news. Every share does. And no-one can predict it or plan for it.

The fact is unless some terrible fundamental problem occurs RIN wont drop much further below $13 because it is slightly undervalued at the moment.

And it will over the longterm all going as expected go up.

But day to day it'll fluctuate according to market sentiment which no-one can predict.

Over the shortterm market sentiment wins, over the longterm value always wins.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi Julia, I think you are confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment..

They are two completely different entities.

The intrinsic value of RIN is a debatable topic, but many agree the fair value of its shares is above $13. Hence why I bought and why many many others bought around or just under $13.

You are confusing the intrinsic value or fundamental value with market sentiment. Of course RIN will go up and down slightly on daily news. Every share does. And no-one can predict it or plan for it.

The fact is unless some terrible fundamental problem occurs RIN wont drop much further below $13 because it is slightly undervalued at the moment.

And it will over the longterm all going as expected go up.

But day to day it'll fluctuate according to market sentiment which no-one can predict.

Over the shortterm market sentiment wins, over the longterm value always wins.

Yeah Foward Terminal PE of 10 = $13.40 about, fair value

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 106.6 120.1 125.2 134.7
DPS 78.0 41.8 43.0 45.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 120.1 10.9 12.6%
Year Ending 30-03-08 125.2 10.5 4.2%

thx

MS

 

[Julia]

Hi Julia, I think you are confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment..

They are two completely different entities.

The intrinsic value of RIN is a debatable topic, but many agree the fair value of its shares is above $13. Hence why I bought and why many many others bought around or just under $13.

You are confusing the intrinsic value or fundamental value with market sentiment. Of course RIN will go up and down slightly on daily news. Every share does. And no-one can predict it or plan for it.

The fact is unless some terrible fundamental problem occurs RIN wont drop much further below $13 because it is slightly undervalued at the moment.

And it will over the longterm all going as expected go up.

But day to day it'll fluctuate according to market sentiment which no-one can predict.

Over the shortterm market sentiment wins, over the longterm value always wins.

No Realist, I'm not confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment at all.
I'm simply pointing out that whatever the intrinsic value might be, the SP is much more affected by market sentiment. I can't believe you would argue with that?

And I don't agree that over the longterm value always wins. Perhaps over more than 10 years.

The other part to the point I was trying to make is the very value of your own approach of buy and hold, as compared to traders jumping out as the stock falls off its highs, and then back in again a few weeks later as we are seeing at present. You have oh so often espoused the virtues of hanging in there and riding out the ups and downs, compared with the brokerage and tax issues involved in a short term approach.

OK, is that clearer?

Julia

 

[Realist]

Yeah thanks, I agree.

Although market sentiment only causes minor swings in major stocks. If for instance Fosters made a loss next year it's price would plummet based on fundamentals. Market sentiment will never cause FGL to plummet if the fundamentals are sound.

 

[Realist]

$13.68 now.

Was $12.60 this week. Up 8.5%

And it was up 5% overnight in the US, should storm up today!

 

[Julia]

Extract from FNArena today:

JP Morgan suggests that eventually the value of Rinker will be properly recognised by the market "or even perhaps one of RIN's US/European peers". Credit Suisse also stated this morning "We believe the once predator could become prey to either long cement companies (Lafarge, Cemex, Holcim) or private equity."


Rinker is a strong company that is potentially undervalued by the market at present. And we know what now happens to Australian companies in such a situation. Is Rinker the next target?


Not only is the takeover speculation interesting, but these comments probably put better what I was trying to say earlier.

Julia

 

[Realist]

Did you ever buy RIN Julia?

 

[Julia]

Did you ever buy RIN Julia?

Realist, Yes I bought in January so was a happy investor for a while!

Julia

 

[noirua]

Rinker are hovering around the $14 level, probably helped by recent presentations in the States.

RIN Directors may increasingly feel the need for the company to reduce its Aussie holdings and move head office to the USA. That would probably, in their eyes, see the company have the opportunity to move out of ADR's into the main NYSE sector.

 

[swingstar]

Adjusted count for RIN. It's a long A, but it's valid, if Nick's 5 is indeed a 5.

(red lines just indicate wave iv's span, where a wave C usually finishes, so may see a turning point soon)

Edit: My wave v doesn't subdivide into five waves, so we may still be in that.

 

[Realist]

Are you saying it is going back down to 12 Swingstar?

If you are then I disagree.... :

 

[swingstar]

Probably below $12 if my count is correct.

I wouldn't short it until there was a decent breach through recent lows.

Depends how the waves unfold. Of course there are probably alternative counts, but I'm not that focused on RIN ATM.

 

[Realist]

You'll be proven wrong...

 

[swingstar]

That EW count will be proven wrong, and I'll just have to adjust as new waves unfold.

 

[michael_selway]

You'll be proven wrong...

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 106.6 118.6 123.3 128.1
DPS 78.0 41.9 43.0 46.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-03-07 118.6 11.9 11.2%
Year Ending 30-03-08 123.3 11.4 4.0%

how much do u think they are worth atm realist?

thx

MS

 

[Realist]

$15.

 

[noirua]

The RIN buy-back continues confidently on - Rinker shares appear to be the best investment around for the Board of RIN - with 500,000 shares purchased yesterday between $13.94 - $14.01.

So it's Rinker themselves that help the struggle to stay above $14.

Unleaded petrol in the states is now down by 25% from the US$3.04 per US gallon. The Dow 30 index shows a general confidence that interest rates and inflation are looking towards a downward trend that should benefit good old Rinker Group.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Well Noirua,made a fist full of dollars today ,hopefully back in at the mid 13 bucks zone.See you soon with my Rin tin tin shares...................

 

[noirua]

Rinker trade on the NYSE at ADR$52.64 against a 52 week low of ADR$46.40. The sentiment stockscore is at 49, middle of the neutral range.

 

[noirua]

Let's not forget, first off, the disaster that Rinker Group shares have proven to be.

There is something in an article I read about a companies investment in Taiwan. Having lost 65% of their money they decided to stick it out on a sensible forward basis. Since the disastrous fall, they have recovered half of their losses that equate to a gain of 20% compound per annum.

Hopefully this is what we are seeing here in Rinker Group's shares having closed at $14.34 on Friday - low was $12.11.