RIC - Ridley Corporation

[josjes]

Ridley Corp today hit a new year high. It's been holding up well during the last 2 months of market carnage, its SP barely moved. It's has been trading on sideways between $1.05-1.20 in 2007. Today it breaks resistance bound to hit new high.
RIC has been under constant attack for the past two years : BSE, foot & mouth, Canadian lawsuits, hurricanes in the US, drought in Australia, surges in input costs, and adverse currency movement all detract substantial amounts from profit.

Positive news that re-rate the share last week is that the Canadian BSE law suit has been settled (which has been a drag for the SP so far). The drought is clearing up, and potential break-up of the company.

In contrast to other companies that reported 50% increase of profit and got smacked 20%, on Monday 11/2 it reported 30% drop in net profit, but market seems to like it, and the share moved up 10% since.

Also look at the substantial holder list. Many well known value investors on its register, Maple Brown Abbott, Dimensional Fund Australia, Lazard Asset Management, Investor Mutual.

I have been a holder of this company since late 2005, hopefully my patience will soon be rewarded.

This is a good fit for a defensive holding in your portfolio in the current turbulent market.

Chart attached.

 

[motorway]

Here you go

If there is any active sponsorship in a stock
A P&F chart will tend to trend at 45 degrees

How urgent or active that sponsorship
determines on what magnitude the manipulations of sponsorship will be revealed

Is there anything good
what is the time scale

is it the next ''6 mths "

Every action is a manipulation...

We can change the filter until we see
These patterns appear

With RIC I will start with the 4% x 3 ( because it is very clear )

The first pattern marked
is where supply withdrew
the response was demand withdrawing even more
price sagged

the second pattern marked is
Demand turning up
the response has been supply turning up as well

Blue line is support because volume has taken price up from that level.

Those active in the stock
withdrew to the sidelines

With demand back
We have a broadening pattern


What to do

nothing
wait
buy at support
sell at resistance


having supply withdrawing
or having demand returning

Is not enough... It is always the response that is what makes enough

( Go long at a Last point of support AFTER a Sign of strength )

A broadening pattern is a wide pattern
large differences of opinion

a battle ground for accumulation or distribution

2% chart.....

small trend like movements

strongly down
but with demand now in place
and the price activity
a chance to narrow
as the differences of opinion
are resolved

We can then see what side becomes urgent

( if price narrows as supply again withdraws... and Then We see a SOS
ie demand responds by becoming urgent...That would be very different to the first pattern on the 4% chart )


I can post some more charts later ( look at the 1 box reversal charts )

If you are interested

motorway

 

[josjes]

Thanks Motorway. This stock is frustrating. It's been in sideways pattern for as long as I held it. I was just spooked the other day when it tanked for > 10% in a week, and down 30% since it hit year high last month and forming a lower low. But today it went up 12%. So it does have support there. As you said, wait on the sideline for
"the differences of opinion
to be resolved"

We can then see what side becomes urgent
" if price narrows as supply again withdraws... and Then We see a SOS
ie demand responds by becoming urgent...That would be very different to the first pattern on the 4% chart "
What sign to look for in the 4% P&F chart for this action ?

For now $1.31 is the resistance to watch for.

and what would 1 box reversal chart tell ?

 

[motorway]

Sidways Sidways Sidways

Even a 1 box chart will move at 45 degrees if sponsorship is active and urgent.

The P&F does not have to move
IF supply at a price was exhausted.
And demand reaches then the chart moves up... consolidates ...

And in repeating moves up by stair steps .

it might stop slow and pause as demand holds
But when it moves it will move across & up ( reverse the process for demand exhausting )

Important point... the columns change when support and resistance changes.

Grasp This Point....The columns are not time..

Demand either overcomes supply
or supply overcomes demand

sideways is consolidation absorption Acc & Dis... Should lead somewhere.

OK
What can we say about so much sideways that never ( so far ) leads anywhere....

There might be no active sponsorship ( No smart money )

Now the 1 box reversal is the immediate trend ( Is smart money active NOW )
the 3 box is the intermediate trend
a 5 box reversal is a bigger picture still ( they are all timeless charts of NOW ..Just different degrees of magnitudes..

Now SEE the last 6 columns

That IS a pattern of accumulation

and the volume on the bar chart might confirm
some "change of behavior"

But see how the 45 degree lines keep switching so rapidly ?
FROM 2003 .... so you can go broke waiting...
what you want to see is RISING SUPPORTS on this 1 box chart

appreciate the feedback
P&F charts are not familiar to many.
but they are imo so valuable.

Manipulation Detectors

"They" have to accumulate or distribute FIRST
This is the "Cause" The imbalance of demand and supply.

motorway

 

[josjes]

Exactly
2 years is a long time to wait where you have a better opportunity elsewhere to make money. Thanks again Motorway, food for thought, I must go back and weigh the pro and cons of holding this stock.

"Now SEE the last 6 columns

That IS a pattern of accumulation"

So you reckon there is a chance for this stock ? All it needs is a one or two positive news to break the accumulation pattern.

One question:
I notice that you use Updata Technology, search on the internet, the price of the software is quite pricey. Any software you know that is cheaper out there ? I don't need fancy stuff, just basic P&F.

 

[motorway]

http://www.archeranalysis.com/beb/index.html

You should be able to get a trial of this

This is not expensive...

It will draw very good and accurate P&F charts

But only P&F

motorway

 

[josjes]

My patience for 2.5 years are vindicated today. GNC (Graincorp) offers script T/O offer for RIC of 1:9 valuing $1.39 for RIC shares. The shares price is now hovering around $1.38 - $1.45 after the announcment today, probably indicating the market thinks RIC could be worth more.

Last week RIC announced that it is selling its land banks worth at least $0.27/share. I think RIC is worth at least $1.45 to its predator.
NTA book value last year is $1.15.

Graincorp is offering one of its share for every nine Ridley shares, which represents an implied offer price of A$1.39 per Ridley share, based on Graincorp's closing price of A$12.48 on May 15.

Graincorp said the offer price represents a 22 percent premium to Ridley's one month volume weighted average price up to May 15, 2008 and a 25 percent premium to a three month volume weighted average price.

Graincorp said it already has about 19 percent of Ridley through pre-bid acceptances.

Shares in Ridley were up 3.46 percent to A$1.345 by 0143 GMT, before going on a trading halt ahead of the announcement. Trading will resume at 0225 GMT.

Graincorp, which has a market value of about A$785 million, fell 2.24 percent to A$12.20 before the announcement. It will also resume trading at 0225 GMT

"The acquisition of Ridley will further consolidate our strategy of being Australasia's leading handler and supplier of agriproducts and bulk products," Graincorp Managing Director Mark Irwin said in a statement.

Irwin said Graincorp is already directly involved in the key inputs and represents a majority of Ridley's stock feed production costs.

Graincorp said the acquisition will result in an geographical overlapping of Ridley's 23 Australian stock feed mills with Graincorp's 250 country silos and marketing network.

The combined group will also process up to 2 million tonnes of grain per annum, representing about 20 percent of Australia's eastern seaboard domestic grain consumption.

Lazard Carnegie Wylie is advising Graincorp on the deal.

 

[matilda]

Interesting to note that in the two days prior to today's bid for RIC, the shares have increased 9.5%, on my calculations. Long time since we have seen that kind of move.

 

[Dangerous]

Anyone got chat on Ridley?

I have been buying these since 98c. With a 6-7% dividend why wouldn't you?

I have two concerns - it will require property mkt to stay strong (Salt Plains in Adel development) and have done a little research on Guiness Peat who have bought up to 13%- not really that excited by them. They are a UK company. I think they have listings on ASX and NZX as well. But they own 10% of B&B power, a stake in Calipano and AV Jennings to mention a few. It seems as though they buy stakes in companies in distress. to quote "all are not doing well"

W

 

[orr]

At today's lows, after reading yesterdays announcement and considering their history we'll see if money was best left in the bank.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Interesting report on HC. I think it's a comsec broker report. Unfortunately I can't copy/paste it. May follow what NUF has been doing. T/O speculation and turnaround stories add some appeal.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Bit of movement today. Bots have been hitting the offer for most of the day. Low turnover before the break.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Bit of movement today. Bots have been hitting the offer for most of the day. Low turnover before the break.

Would be nice if all trades went this way.

 

[pixel]

Yesterday's Landline segment about Prawn Aquaculture seems to have sparked a breakout:
http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/landline/...Q011S00#playing
start about 36 minutes into the segment.



I bought a few today.

 

[rcm617]

Yesterday's Landline segment about Prawn Aquaculture seems to have sparked a breakout:
http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/landline/...Q011S00#playing
start about 36 minutes into the segment.

View attachment 57604

I bought a few today.

Should be good for them in the long run, however aquaculture is only a very small percentage of their total business at the moment, about 3%.

 

[pixel]

Should be good for them in the long run, however aquaculture is only a very small percentage of their total business at the moment, about 3%.

true, and they have to learn some new tricks as well.
But the prospects are considerable.

Add the resumption of dividends (1.5c by end of April) to the mix, and it could become a reasonable holding.

 

[So_Cynical]

Yesterday's Landline segment about Prawn Aquaculture seems to have sparked a breakout:

I saw that landline episode and decided that RIC was a must have in the portfolio, still trying to find out which SEA country's RIC has the Novacq licence for...anyway Novacq and the technology behind it is a game changer for the Global Aquaculture industry.

In today at 0.835 ~ right on the trend line and low volume the last few weeks as well.
~

 

[rcm617]

I saw that landline episode and decided that RIC was a must have in the portfolio, still trying to find out which SEA country's RIC has the Novacq licence for...anyway Novacq and the technology behind it is a game changer for the Global Aquaculture industry.

In today at 0.835 ~ right on the trend line and low volume the last few weeks as well.
~

RIC has the licence for novacq in Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia. Gentech has the licence in China and Viet Uc Co has the licence in Vietnam.

 

[So_Cynical]

RIC has the licence for novacq in Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia. Gentech has the licence in China and Viet Uc Co has the licence in Vietnam.

Ok good to know, thanks for that, Vietnam and China would be the plum licences to have but the other 3 are still big country's with big potential and there will be more licences to come i imagine.

Very excited by this game changer, haven't been this exited since i found out about the Nappamerri Trough and Beach was 70 CPS.

 

[qldfrog]

very steep surge today:
back to 84c from lows of 78.5 on wednesday.
Anyone to see a reason there?
I do own for what could be good fundamental and am very happy for that upsurge but this sudden surge?
One explanation I see:
embargo on russian wheat/rise in cereal prices and expected higher agricultural sales as a result here in Australia???
But that is a stretch!!!!
Takeover maybe?
Any information welcome