RGN - Region Group

[nulla nulla]

Well it retraced, but like a kid with a bicycle that has learnt to ride "no hands" screaming out for anyone around "hey look at me". SCP fell but rebounded to the stratosphere. The chart since the IPO makes for interesting viewing.



Personally I think the kid is about to crash his bike. As always. Do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

My how time flys. We are still running on the projected income figures for our statistics but that will change in the next few weeks when SCP gets to report on the actuals. After the drop last week SCP has been slower than some to rebound (unloved in the market, a bit like the poor cousin) but for the faithful, SCP is slowly getting back up to the mid to high $1.70's.



The report should make for good reading when it comes out.

 

[nulla nulla]

Okay, I closed out my trade at $1.785...and it kept going.



Never mind, I'm sure there will be plenty of other opportunities. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

I thought it was worth mentioning this one as when the rest of the market dropped on Thursday and rebounded SCP was a laggard and finished the week down 2.63% on the previous week.

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	Change$	Change%
		10-Oct-14	17-Oct-14
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.710​	1.665​	-0.045​	-2.63% ​

If the present market volatility is a preamble for further bearish activity it is possible for SCP to continue down and test the lows of March 2014 at $1.615. However that would make it unique in the sector.



The Friday close of $1.665 place SCP as having one of the lowest price earnings ratios as well as one of the better yields. I suspect that there may be a little more upside to the current price.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Premium to NTA
SCP	1.665 ​	1,079,966,153​	0.1730​	10.39%​	0.1100​	6.61%​	9.62​	1.64​	1.52%​

I note in a release last week that they have purchased another small shopping centre anchored by a Coles Supermarket and a BWS Liquor outlet (odd to see a Woolworths owned BWP under the same roof as Coles).

As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[pixel]

I suspect that there may be a little more upside to the current price.

Your suspicion was spot-on, nulla-nulla
I only came across SCP today when it popped out of my routine scan:



Price rebounded off last Friday's $1.65 Low; the elevated volume around that Low suggested buying support ("A" stands for Accumulation). If I had noticed the breakout yesterday, I could have bought the Closing Auction. Meanwhile, it appears to have hit Primary Resistance, so I'll try to catch some if there is a pullback. Otherwise, I'd buy the break above $1.73 with a $1.69 stop.

Zooming in and using a slightly tighter planning horizon (and risk acceptance) the recent activity becomes even more obvious: Support and Resistance define some clear trading opportunities.

 

[nulla nulla]

Thank you pixel. Not only did SCP return to the October 10 close of $1.71 it tested $1.75 (just below the resistance line of $1.76) before dropping back to finish the week at $1.74. A handy return of 4.5% for the week for anyone that bought in at or below the previous Fridays close of $1.665 and had the fortitude to hold for an exit of $1.74.

Share	Code	Closing_Price	Closing_Price	Change$	Change%
		17-Oct-14	24-Oct-14
SCA Property Group	SCP	1.665​	1.740​	0.075​	4.50% ​

The market is extremely volatile at the moment and in my humble opinion SCP could just as easily retest the support area of $1.68 - $1.69 as it could test the resistance levels of $1.80 - $1.81.



Mind you SCP is still trading at a low price earnings ratio and a good yield with more upside potential at this point than downside (imo).

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Premium to NTA
SCP	1.740 ​	1,128,613,277​	0.1730​	9.94%​	0.1100​	6.32%​	10.06​	1.64​	6.10%​

As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nth brisbanite]

On Friday 13/3, I received an offer to purchase some more shares in this group. I've noticed that since the last post in October that the share price has gone above $2.

Is anyone going to take up that offer? I've decided to purchase the maximum after reading their last financial report. I'm particularly impressed that their vacancy rate is about 5%.

 

[nulla nulla]

On Friday 13/3, I received an offer to purchase some more shares in this group. I've noticed that since the last post in October that the share price has gone above $2.

Is anyone going to take up that offer? I've decided to purchase the maximum after reading their last financial report. I'm particularly impressed that their vacancy rate is about 5%.

From memory the share purchase price will be the average of trading between 17 March and 28 March. If the market continues to dip you could end up paying a higher price than the closing price at the end of the pricing period. On the other hand if the price starts to recover you could end up paying a lower share price than the closing price at the end of the pricing period. Then again you could simply buy on the market at $1.96- $1.97 on the basis you believe the share price will go back above $2.00.



It's all a bit of a lottery. Good luck with your ticket.

 

[SilverRanger]

From memory the share purchase price will be the average of trading between 17 March and 28 March. If the market continues to dip you could end up paying a higher price than the closing price at the end of the pricing period. On the other hand if the price starts to recover you could end up paying a lower share price than the closing price at the end of the pricing period. Then again you could simply buy on the market at $1.96- $1.97 on the basis you believe the share price will go back above $2.00.

View attachment 62002

It's all a bit of a lottery. Good luck with your ticket.

Anyone knows a reliable source for VWAP? Commsec has Value ($) and Volume for the day, does it include trades from Chi-X?

 

[VSntchr]

Anyone knows a reliable source for VWAP? Commsec has Value ($) and Volume for the day, does it include trades from Chi-X?

You should have it on your webIress platform? Or do you mean reliable as in not from a CDF provider?

 

[SilverRanger]

You should have it on your webIress platform? Or do you mean reliable as in not from a CDF provider?

Yes, ideally I want to know what the source of truth is, or even better somewhere where I can collect historical VWAP for a particular ASX stock.

But it looks like for the purpose of this calculation, they (Commsec, Bell and Iress) are all "good enough" (being the same up to the 4th significant figure) Now I just have to remember to collect them for the next 10 trading days. (so much effort for that 1%!)

 

[nth brisbanite]

I'm not concerned if I don't make a short term profit or even if I suffer a short term loss. I'm planning to hold the shares for over 5 years so would appreciate anyone's opinion on whether you think it is a long term buy. Most of the leases in these shopping centres are long term so I assume that if vacancy rates are low, that the share price will be fairly stable unless the managers make some bad buying and selling decisions.

 

[VSntchr]

Yes, ideally I want to know what the source of truth is, or even better somewhere where I can collect historical VWAP for a particular ASX stock.

But it looks like for the purpose of this calculation, they (Commsec, Bell and Iress) are all "good enough" (being the same up to the 4th significant figure) Now I just have to remember to collect them for the next 10 trading days. (so much effort for that 1%!)

So the 10 days would be today plus the next 9 ending next Friday. I note that the offer is for the arithmetic average of the VWAP sold through 'normal trade'. I wonder if XT are excluded? Probably getting over complicated here as the company has to get their data from somewhere too?

What exactly are you referring to with the effort for the 1%? Are you a holder and planning to sell at the VWAP equivalent and buy back through the SPP to get the 1% discount?

 

[SilverRanger]

So the 10 days would be today plus the next 9 ending next Friday. I note that the offer is for the arithmetic average of the VWAP sold through 'normal trade'. I wonder if XT are excluded? Probably getting over complicated here as the company has to get their data from somewhere too?

As far as I can tell all the VWAP I checked includes XT, so I think I will go by that as well.

What exactly are you referring to with the effort for the 1%? Are you a holder and planning to sell at the VWAP equivalent and buy back through the SPP to get the 1% discount?

That's what I was thinking (but haven't decided to do). The lazy approach would be to just short $1500 each day at market close for the next 10 days. Obviously this is not risk free due to the possibility of scaleback, so the worst case is you are net short $15000.

 

[nulla nulla]

As far as I can tell all the VWAP I checked includes XT, so I think I will go by that as well.



That's what I was thinking (but haven't decided to do). The lazy approach would be to just short $1500 each day at market close for the next 10 days. Obviously this is not risk free due to the possibility of scaleback, so the worst case is you are net short $15000.

I suspect that all that effort for a 1% difference on a $15,000.00 take up in the issue would be a little over the top. Wouldn't broker fees on the daily activity, after ten (10) days would exceed the 1% as well?

 

[SilverRanger]

I suspect that all that effort for a 1% difference on a $15,000.00 take up in the issue would be a little over the top. Wouldn't broker fees on the daily activity, after ten (10) days would exceed the 1% as well?

I think the deal breaker here is the possible scale back. Nowadays companies raising capital SPP choose to scale back at its "abosolute discretion" and nowadays it means no more proportional haircut, but instead favouring sizable shareholders over small holders, locking in SPP profits is no longer easy

Brokerage wise it depends on your commission structure with your broker, so it could be viable for some people

 

[gavmit63]

Does anyone know how they are going to use the money they raise. Is it to pay off debt or are they building up cash for future purchases? As far as I can tell the offer booklet doesn't give a reason for the capital raising.

 

[nth brisbanite]

Does anyone know how they are going to use the money they raise. Is it to pay off debt or are they building up cash for future purchases? As far as I can tell the offer booklet doesn't give a reason for the capital raising.

Their latest report shows a gearing of about 32% so I don't think that money is going to be used to pay down debt. I assume then it must be for future purchases. They do have an attractive yield of 5.66% even though the franking is 0%.

After reading through their latest report, I feel content with my decision to put $15,000 into the company. Still coming to terms with the meaning of a stapled unit but think that I've got it now.

 

[nth brisbanite]

SCP only want to raise 20 million according to their pamphlet. This is not going to make much difference to their gearing. Neither will it purchase much in the way of a shopping centre.

 

[SilverRanger]

SCP only want to raise 20 million according to their pamphlet. This is not going to make much difference to their gearing. Neither will it purchase much in the way of a shopping centre.

Maybe they saw a shopping centre and wanted a 50% share?
$20 million is hardly anything compared to their market cap (it's not even enough to pay the dividend!). It really makes me wonder why they are even bothered.