RGN - Region Group

Well there's always that risk, and I'm certainly no trading expert, but I like the fundamentals and I don't see any evidence of a sell off. I'm looking at a long term holding also, so a minor dip doesn't concern me too much. Would be interested in other views here.

ecnalb said:

Do you think its the time to grab them now with the amount that could be sold off in the coming weeks?

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While there will probably be a fair few shares sold on market, I expect the broker conducting the sale will do it in an orderly fashion, trying to maximise the returns, rather than simply dump them on the market.

RADV said:

Well there's always that risk, and I'm certainly no trading expert, but I like the fundamentals and I don't see any evidence of a sell off. I'm looking at a long term holding also, so a minor dip doesn't concern me too much. Would be interested in other views here.

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Some substantial share holders notices have already been filed as at least two large investors have bought up a stake. Mondial has recently increased their holding. The share price has a good yield rate built in. I expect the price to creep up slowly but steadily like BWP. If you like to buy and sit, then SCP would probably be a good share to have in your portfolio from the guaranteed yield at the present share price levels.

As always: Do your own Research and good luck.

Not being a holder of Woolworths, I didn't receive any shares under the 1 for 5 scheme and subsequently I am not privy to the correspondence in respect of the sell off of non marketable parcels valued under $500.00.

However I suspect the sell off is underway. My reasoning is that SCP climbed to the $1.65 levels then tracked sideways between $1.605 and $1.655. There seems to be significant volumes going through this week in the $1.605-$1.61 range with any breakouts into the $1.615-$1.62 range met by solid selling back to the $1.60 - $1.605 range when buyers once again step up to the plate.



In my humble opinion the share price of SCP is out of sync with the rest of the A-REIT's in that the share is trading at only a small premim to the NTA of $1.58 and a lower value of price earnings. The projected yield at the current share price level is quite high compared to many of the other A-REIT's. It will be interesting to see where the share price trends when to non marketeable share holdings sell off is finalised. As always, do your own research and good luck.

Just re the yield...when have SCP ever announced they would be paying a dividend?

I looked at the presentation released today and there was no mention of it.

Tyler Durden said:

Just re the yield...when have SCP ever announced they would be paying a dividend?

I looked at the presentation released today and there was no mention of it.

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In the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) issued in the lead up to the set up of SCP, Page 27 Section 3: Important Dates and Key Offer Statistics. The forecasts for FY14 are provided.

Also, page 51 of the PDS advises of an "intention" to pay a 5.6 cent distribution for the shortened financial year ending 30 June 2013 and a 10.4 cent distribution for the financial year ending 30 June 2014.

I accessed the "Small Unitholding Sale Facility" document dated 7 February 2013. It appears that the sell off doesn't start until after 21 March 2013. The sale is being conducted by Moulis Securities Pty Ltd on the ASX in the ordinary course of trading. Payment for the units sold will occur on or about 15 May 2013.

It would seem that the current drop back in the share price has nothing to do with the "Small Unitholding Sale facility".

I'm probably in the minority, but I've elected to keep my shares.

touch and go for me....own a few of SCP...but not enough to cover $500...might just prop it up a little to go over $1000.

The big rally on Friday afternoon pushed SCP to a new high of $1.71. Interestingly Bunnings (BWP) also surged in the afternoon. However while Bunnings gave back most of Fridays gains on Monday, SCP was able to hold on to most of their gains. I threw a low ball bid into the queue at $1.61 in case SCP retraced in the "Cyprus sell down" but SCP never looked like getting anywhere near it.

Any explanation for the rise? I was kinda hoping it would go south of $1.60 due to the "sell off".

The share price rocketed up on Friday 15th but dropped back steadily through the early part of the week.



There appears to be a trading patern emerging but it is still a bit inconsistant for me. I was waiting at $1.605 but Mrs nulla pumped some SMSF funds in at $1.615 on Thursday and out again at $1.65 on Friday for a 1.8% T1 trade. Nice if you can get it.

The forecast fundamentals are still good at these prices and I still expect SCP to slowly advance sideways and upwards:



As always do your own research and good luck.

SCP appears to be in a little bit of a limbo at the moment. The daily volumes of shares traded is usualy relatively low when compared with the rest of the A-REIT's trading turnover. While the share price is trading at a slight premium to the NTA, the yield based on the figures released in the IPO is still above 6% which is higher than most of the other A-REIT shares. Accordingly I was surprised to see SCP pushed down to an interday low of $1.615 today, before closing on $1.62. I was looking for an upward breakout from the recent pennant and was surprised with todays sell down.



In my humble opinion the fundamentals for SCP look very good at these levels:



The only thing I can think of is someone wants to push the price down so that the sell of off unmarketable parcels, when it starts, will be at a low price enabling them to accumulate on the cheap? As always do your own research and good luck .

Comments:

The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

nulla nulla said:

SCP ....''The only thing I can think of is someone wants to push the price down so that the sell of off unmarketable parcels, when it starts, will be at a low price enabling them to accumulate on the cheap? As always do your own research and good luck .

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Seems the "sell off of unmarketable parcels" was due to commence on 21 March 2013. So the sell off is likely well underway and is probably responsible for the price drop over the last 10 days. It will be interesting to see how many more "change in substantial holding" notices are lodged in the next few weeks as the fundies accumulate at these price levels and what the price action is like when the "sell off" finishes.

Friday was very interesting in the A-REIT sector. The sector jumped 2%, starting to climb almost immediately after open on solid buying then held the new highs supported by continued buying right into the auction at close. SCP managed to climb from the previous days close of $1.60 to finish the week on a high of $1.635. It almost looked as if SCP had bounced off the support level of $1.60.



However, when you compare the daily price increase of SCP against the likes of CFX and IOF, it was fairly paltry. And when you compare how SCP has performed over the last few weeks against the other A-REIT shares it is obvious that SCP is well off the pace.

The SCP daily volumes of share turnover over the last twenty one (21) days is averaging arround three million shares per day. However in that period, daily turnover higher than three million shares per day has only occured on seven (7) days. Of the fourteen (14) days where turnover has been less than three million shares per day, the turnover on twelve (12) of the fourteen days was less than two million shares per day. The moving average of daily turnover appears to be being disproportionately increased by the days on which there is larger turnover.



In respect of SCP, there should currently be a "sale of unmarketable parcels" taking place "in an orderly manner". In other words a broker has been appointed to sell off the combined sum of all the little shareholdings that arose out of the Woolworths distribution. The broker is expected to have completed the sell off and distributed the funds to the former holders of the unmarketable parcels by 15 May 2013. I am not aware of any disclosure as to the number of "unmarketable parcels" involved or the number of shares being disposed off "in an orderly manner".

It is possible that the rest of the fund managers/brokers that didn't get the gig may be sitting back and letting the share from the "Sale of unmarketable parcels" come into the market at lower prices. It will be interesting to see whether SCP continues the recent slide in the period leading into mid May or will the Yield at these levels be too much for Retail and Sophisticated investors looking to re-invest the funds they are taking out of Gold and resources.



As always do your own research and good luck. I hold and may hold onto some for the longer term to see where it goes.

Comments:

The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

I have had notification that my small amount of shares (57) have been sold. I have not had any payment as yet and I am wondering if anyone has had a payment from there small parcel of shares? Maybe I have to wait for the sell off to be completed by middle May??

The sale facility document indicated payment was expected to be made by 15 May 2013. The only large volume that I have noticed out of character with normal day to day trade, so far, was a sale of 11,200,000 shares at $1.635, from memory it was early last week.

A few days ago they announced it was completed. I've been paid out. Check with Computershare - you may find the letter with confirmation of units sold and sale price of the units. Mine is dated May 1.

On Wednesday someone was dead keen to sell out and half way through the closing auction they banged in a sale of approximately 1,300,000 shares at $1.62. Although I scrambled to place two (2) buy orders, personal and smsf, I was not able to get the orders processed before the close of the auction.

On Thursday I ammended the orders down to $1.61 and $1.605. The first order was filled before midday but the second order wasn't filled until a late sell off just before 4:00pm. Again there was a sell off in the closing aucton and I snapped up a third parcel at $1.60 managing to get the order processed in time for the auction close.



Today SCP buyers came in and pushed the price back up from the "support" line of $1.60. A late flurry of buying pushed the share price to $1.665 and determined buyers ensured that SCP closed out on a high for the day of $1.67. I wonder what tomorrow will bring? As always do your own research and good luck.

If you thought yesterdays price action was good just wait until you look at todays chart. SCP took off at open and never looked like turning back, reaching for a new high of $1.745 in the closing auction.



The stats look good also. SCP is still providing a projected yield greater than 5% and a low price earnings multiple. If the foreign money is still coming into Australia, SCP is still capable of pushing higher before yield compression and a high price earnings ratio would make it less attractive.



Comments: The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

As always do your own research and good luck. .

nulla nulla said:

On Wednesday someone was dead keen to sell out and half way through the closing auction they banged in a sale of approximately 1,300,000 shares at $1.62. Although I scrambled to place two (2) buy orders, personal and smsf, I was not able to get the orders processed before the close of the auction.

On Thursday I ammended the orders down to $1.61 and $1.605. The first order was filled before midday but the second order wasn't filled until a late sell off just before 4:00pm. Again there was a sell off in the closing aucton and I snapped up a third parcel at $1.60 managing to get the order processed in time for the auction close.

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Today SCP buyers came in and pushed the price back up from the "support" line of $1.60. A late flurry of buying pushed the share price to $1.665 and determined buyers ensured that SCP closed out on a high for the day of $1.67. I wonder what tomorrow will bring? As always do your own research and good luck.

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Correction: When I posted this on Thursday for some reason I was thinking it was Friday and I referred to the preceding days as Wednesday and Thursday when I should have referred them as Tuesday (The initial sell down to $1.62) and Wednesday (the subsequent sell down to $1.60). Sorry

Don't forget to read the previous post with todays action and stats.