Retail Trading for a Living Milestone - "Feed my ego"/Thought sharing

[CanOz]

I still feel annoyed at controlled losses, angry if loss is "uncontrolled" like, a human error in placing orders which results in larger loss than anticipated. I do not think I will ever reach the stage of "not caring" at all of losses of my money. I personally do not believe that is possible, at least not for me, if I don't disregard the desire for material things - if that happens I wouldn't be trading anyway.

Whenever I am in losing streak, I compare it to my days of options selling losses, and these losses feel like nothing. A blessing in disguise were those large losses, how they now enable me to feel much better about small losses. I would joke about it to my trader friend, things like "time to line up at centrelink tommorrow.."

I like that Minwa, I could never learn to love my losses either. I try and treat them like an expense, but that doesn't help much. I still like it when I'm right, that sometimes leads to over confidence.

 

[Craton]

@minwa. Thanks for sharing, great thread.

Speaking from a less active trading perspective as am mainly a passive investor but I do like big, short term gains that just beg and indeed, must be realised.

As hard as it is to leave the emotional side out of it, my personal take on losses is that I look at any loss simply as a cost of doing business and as tax minimization for realised short and long term tax considerations, not always possible but that's how I roll with losses.

Of course any loss will be scrutinized to the nth degree to discern why and to learn from.

No one likes to loss money, getting worked up about it not only clouds the brain but won't bring the loss back. No use crying of spilt milk so to speak.

Again, great thread. Now go and make your first seven digit month!

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Just re-read this entire thread to catch up from my initial questions, to which has been a great read.

A few things I'd like to ask:

1. You mentioned way back in your reply to my first questions that you saved up and self-funded a 10K account which is when you started to see success, before your family + relatives funded you with an awesome 250k and said away you go, but back to the 10K where you started to get some success, what do you call "some success" at this point? Were you relatively profitable, what had you turned the 10K into(if you don't mind me asking). Reason I ask is I'm just curious to see if you could do this well with just that 10K account. There's been many a time I wish I had a wealthy or well saved up family that could kick me off with 250K which would have drastically improved my results and psychology.

2. Your method of trading, you mentioned you had a mentor who helped a lot(another super rare thing to get/find along with a 250K kickstarter!) how much of your method now is his input and your own doing? Where do you get the levels you look at, and do you have targets mind? Like you showed us those charts where it flattens out at midday, but that's all well and good to point out after the fact, do you have some kind of target in mind when its live? What gets you in and out in the moment?

Great stuff! Nice car too!

 

[minwa]

Just re-read this entire thread to catch up from my initial questions, to which has been a great read.

A few things I'd like to ask:

1. You mentioned way back in your reply to my first questions that you saved up and self-funded a 10K account which is when you started to see success, before your family + relatives funded you with an awesome 250k and said away you go, but back to the 10K where you started to get some success, what do you call "some success" at this point? Were you relatively profitable, what had you turned the 10K into(if you don't mind me asking). Reason I ask is I'm just curious to see if you could do this well with just that 10K account. There's been many a time I wish I had a wealthy or well saved up family that could kick me off with 250K which would have drastically improved my results and psychology.

2. Your method of trading, you mentioned you had a mentor who helped a lot(another super rare thing to get/find along with a 250K kickstarter!) how much of your method now is his input and your own doing? Where do you get the levels you look at, and do you have targets mind? Like you showed us those charts where it flattens out at midday, but that's all well and good to point out after the fact, do you have some kind of target in mind when its live? What gets you in and out in the moment?

Great stuff! Nice car too!

1. It was about a few months of pretty consistent results, no consecutive losing weeks. I was risking way more % wise back then, 1-3% as opposed to current 0.25%. It was like 40 something % appreciation on account. Honestly I am not sure how I would do with just $10k. I probably would've kept working for a few years and adding capital in and eventually probably go for a prop firm. Who knows if I would've still made it..probably yes but many many years behind of course. Good luck to you..probably best to get results then go for a prop firm.

2. I'd say about 85% is what he taught me (again, a lot of it is not "his" stuff..he simply put the good stuff together from various authors and mentors, and 15% some of my own tweaks. My levels are based based on price pattern which seeks where institutional orders are most stacked. Same principle as support and resistance, except it's not based on swing high or lows like the traditional TA sup/res. To me those are liquidity pockets to be violated. My first target is between 11-12, at which point I will look at where price has traded to and look to the left to find consolidations, this represents temporary fair value and is where price can be likely to trade to again. Morning swing is usually easy. Second target depends on day of week/higher time frame and whether you want to take it overnight. Then if feeling greedy have a small position left and just trail it.

My other setup I'm pretty sure you've seen it..damn my memory I posted it in either yours or Modest's thread..Both based off same principle..buying declines/selling rallies, just differing method of entry.



Good example just last night..jogs your memory ? What signals the potential top after the rally off the open ?

I'm talking hindsight yes but it's a real trade I did. These trades gives crazy R:R but they don't happen often, once a week, twice if market is kind.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Thanks for the answers minwa, wasn't sure if you'd seen them or not, actually seems like ASF is pretty dead in recent times, especially as far as futures traders goes, we've all vanished somewhere so I appreciate it

You've had a perfect environment to succeed at trading with a mentor who was what seems to be a decent trader AND willing to help(rare!) and the funding and made the most of it, excellent stuff

 

[Gringotts Bank]

My levels are based based on price pattern which seeks where institutional orders are most stacked. Same principle as support and resistance, except it's not based on swing high or lows like the traditional TA sup/res. To me those are liquidity pockets to be violated. My first target is between 11-12, at which point I will look at where price has traded to and look to the left to find consolidations, this represents temporary fair value and is where price can be likely to trade to again.

Almost sounding like the open range breakout, in reverse. Anyone else thinking the same?

 

[Modest]

View attachment 66245

What signals the potential top after the rally off the open ?

I see that all three have a climatic last push on high vol before turning over;

YM Puts in a double top, lower high
NQ Has three attempts to go higher and fails (head and shoulders)
ES puts in a double top, lower high

Before all that ZB was putting in a bottom (that middle bar being the lowest is of interest how it got rejected immediately)


What do you see?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

minwa or modest, can you explain the chart a bit please?

Are YM and NQ on different time frames to the bar chart? Is the main bar chart the ES?

Thanks.

 

[CanOz]

minwa or modest, can you explain the chart a bit please?

Are YM and NQ on different time frames to the bar chart? Is the main bar chart the ES?

Thanks.

The main chart is ZB, the US 30 year treasury bond. The other charts are 1m comparison studies in line on close format just to illustrate the correlation. You see how the bonds consolidated then started their rally before the equity indices started their sell-off....

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The main chart is ZB, the US 30 year treasury bond. The other charts are 1m comparison studies in line on close format just to illustrate the correlation. You see how the bonds consolidated then started their rally before the equity indices started their sell-off....

Thanks Can. Is the point here that because the bonds were flat that this was an indicator that the indices would get sold off?

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Thanks Can. Is the point here that because the bonds were flat that this was an indicator that the indices would get sold off?

Yeah I think so, while the ES was having its morning rally, the bonds didn't push lower(usually negatively correlated) then actually started to rise in which the correlation kicks back in and ES comes off again till midday when it flattens out and farts around until the close I assume.

Something like that minwa? I take it that trade isn't always in play as that correlation can not always be that clear cut? It's interesting that you don't use volume either considering your method of trade is to go with the big players/smart money, usually volume is a key component of that, yet you seem to just use more of a time of day type pattern and correlations?

Wish I was where you were at

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yeah I think so, while the ES was having its morning rally, the bonds didn't push lower(usually negatively correlated) then actually started to rise in which the correlation kicks back in and ES comes off again till midday when it flattens out and farts around until the close I assume.

Something like that minwa? I take it that trade isn't always in play as that correlation can not always be that clear cut? It's interesting that you don't use volume either considering your method of trade is to go with the big players/smart money, usually volume is a key component of that, yet you seem to just use more of a time of day type pattern and correlations?

Wish I was where you were at

Cheers.

I never thought there was such a thing as leading indicators, but I can see how they could exist. The mavens will always lead with their actions, creating a gap as the followers fall in line.

 

[Modest]

Yesterday was interesting.. the Bund and FESX were in unison so it was a bit more difficult to use the bonds for confirmation. But even though they were moving together most of the time, at some points they would diverge briefly and that provided some good opportunity to make a trade on the index.

Although I witnessed the above I did not trade it because the divergence did not occur at a point where my setup was forming.

Also important to note although I saw these as opportunities because of the size of the sample it could have easily been random so DYOR

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Yesterday was interesting.. the Bund and FESX were in unison so it was a bit more difficult to use the bonds for confirmation. But even though they were moving together most of the time, at some points they would diverge briefly and that provided some good opportunity to make a trade on the index.

Although I witnessed the above I did not trade it because the divergence did not occur at a point where my setup was forming.

Also important to note although I saw these as opportunities because of the size of the sample it could have easily been random so DYOR

Yeah I've only ever watched these types of correlations on Eurex as well, in my case with the Dax and Bund etc. and yeah I agree, definitely doesn't seem to be a go-to trade idea every time that's for sure, sometimes it goes in and out(as do all correlations I guess, that's what makes the opportunities). But thought I'd confirm that with minwa, it might be a different story on CME, never really watched it as much as Eurex, might be more of a consistent pattern.

But I guess that's why screen time/experience is the greatest tool of all, because you will KNOW when something is out of whack and to jump on it.

....or we have it all wrong and he's just referring to the time of day for why things happened when they did on that chart

 

[minwa]

Haha I thought the theories would run wild with ZB, it's not important here. I just had to use a base chart to get the trio on the chart. There is correlation with bonds, but I use the note's yields for intraday. That's a can of worms I don't want to open. Focus on just the index futures for now

YM Puts in a double top, lower high
NQ Has three attempts to go higher and fails (head and shoulders)
ES puts in a double top, lower high

Rally after the open - NQ puts in higher high, while other 2 puts in lower high.

Now look at last night's (Thursday) action.



What happened here ? I prefer to chart them individually to see the highs/lows clearer but untrained eye may prefer the 3 lines on same chart.

Also to put the move into perspective, this is a 5 minute chart showing the overnight globex action. Ignore the blue boxes for now, come back to that later.



Price rallies out of consolidation to new intranight highs, bulls cheer and go long on break outs. Stop orders will stack below the swing low/double bottom from these break out players and also the guys who bought lower near the intranight low will move their stop up. Big boys engineers it down to those orders to absorb those sell stops of the involuntary liquidity to take their positions for the rally.

 

[minwa]

Last ego brag post I promise :. I'll post losses and failed set ups next time. Just a reminder I am cherry picking good setups & good periods. I AM good, but not as damn good as most of you probably fantasize me to be from my posts, and I don't have to be - you only have to be slightly better than average in the market to extract money and manage risk & equity over time to build wealth.

 

[minwa]

It's interesting that you don't use volume either considering your method of trade is to go with the big players/smart money, usually volume is a key component of that, yet you seem to just use more of a time of day type pattern and correlations?

Interesting you state that "volume is key component of big players/smart money following". Lots of authors/gurus/mentors/salesman use the word "smart money" - in reality they don't get close to it, simply use the buzzword in their marketing. Personally haven't found a use for volume.

I never thought there was such a thing as leading indicators, but I can see how they could exist. The mavens will always lead with their actions, creating a gap as the followers fall in line.

Price action leads. My belief is price are drawn to liquidity. Can be argued but it's a fact to me, nothing will convince me otherwise.

But I guess that's why screen time/experience is the greatest tool of all, because you will KNOW when something is out of whack and to jump on it.

Agree with the screen time/experience, but only IF you've found what works. Of course the dilemma here is you will need time to find what works for you but when you discover it, it will pop out at you again and again.

 

[Modest]

This stuff is GOLDEN! Thanks for your detailed reply minwa!

 

[minwa]

Morning move easy, take profits before noon. Nailing the move after midday is something I require work on. I am probably taking a few years of my lifespan with all these nights up, but its worth it doing what you love & it pays.

 

[minwa]

Looking for a bottom in cattles intermediate term