Resource nationalism

greggles · 21 April 2022

The boom in commodities that we are currently experiencing has caused many developing nations to take a good look at who has ownership and control of critical mineral reserves in their country. The realisation that foreign companies are exploiting and profiting from their natural resources has led to a rise in resource nationalism, especially in Latin America.

Mexico is taking steps towards nationalising their lithium reserves, copper mines are shutting down in Peru, Bolivia has made lithium a state monopoly and Chile is planning to set up a state-owned lithium company.

Short term, this could definitely have an impact on supply. Long term, well that's anyone's guess but I don't think this phenomenon is going away anytime soon. In times of crisis and global turmoil nationalism always sees an increase as people cling ever tighter to their own tribe.

waterbottle · 21 April 2022

I can't blame them.

The Americas and Africa have been subjugated since colonial times due to the richness of their national resources.
It makes sense that their respective governments would do their best to maximise profits from such resources instead of allowing foreigners to raid their nation for pennies to the dollar.

Having said that, the unfortunate reality is that Western nations have a habit of rewriting narrative to suit them. Case in point being the unwanted "freedom" Middle Eastern nations have been subjected to when attempting to leverage critical petroleum supply against the West.

Australia has had the same debate that "nationalists" are having re: mines. In the late 2000s - mid 2010s, with the realisation that Australia had a 2-speed eceonomy and was fast becoming China's mine, efforts increased to scrutinise and reject foreign companies from owning critical infrastructure. Interestingly, the subject has vanished entirely from public discourse courtesy of covid.
The same debate still wages in the US and Europe, fanned by the election of Trump in 2016 and leading the US-China trade wars.

Some would argue that these policies have clearly failed, although my opinion is that they've started a process that no government is able to stop.
If anything, since 2016, we've seen a growing schism between the West and the East as politicians have acknowledged that the push for globalization has not been entirely beneficial due conflicting military-political agenda, an underestimated negative impact on Western domestic economies (primarily through loss of blue collar work) and an increasing push for a greener society.
The proof is in the fact that all major Western governments (UK, EU, US, Canada, Aus) have taken measures to support domestic/allied production.
Case in point - all the above have a policy on critical minerals that serve to exclude/diversify from China as a source, despite it being the world's largest supplier, as China has previously restricted the supply of critical minerals for political leverage.
Better yet, the COVID pandemic has laid bare just how dependent manufacturing in the Western world is on China. The early 2020s saw surgical masks disappear, late 2021 saw the computer chip crunch (manufacturers dependent on Taiwan), and now in early 2022 we've seen the price of oil spike thanks to the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

In summary, the world is shifting towards resource nationalism/"regionalism". Globalisation can work, in theory, but the reality that governments are waking up to is that friction will continue to exist into the indefinite future, which will only serve to jeopardise the supply of goods critical to the function of their domestic economies. The natural response is to secure the supply, either via allies or domestic production.

3 hound · 21 April 2022

waterbottle said:
I can't blame them.

The Americas and Africa have been subjugated since colonial times due to the richness of their national resources.
It makes sense that their respective governments would do their best to maximise profits from such resources instead of allowing foreigners to raid their nation for pennies to the dollar.

Having said that, the unfortunate reality is that Western nations have a habit of rewriting narrative to suit them. Case in point being the unwanted "freedom" Middle Eastern nations have been subjected to when attempting to leverage critical petroleum supply against the West.

Australia has had the same debate that "nationalists" are having re: mines. In the late 2000s - mid 2010s, with the realisation that Australia had a 2-speed eceonomy and was fast becoming China's mine, efforts increased to scrutinise and reject foreign companies from owning critical infrastructure. Interestingly, the subject has vanished entirely from public discourse courtesy of covid.
The same debate still wages in the US and Europe, fanned by the election of Trump in 2016 and leading the US-China trade wars.

Some would argue that these policies have clearly failed, although my opinion is that they've started a process that no government is able to stop.
If anything, since 2016, we've seen a growing schism between the West and the East as politicians have acknowledged that the push for globalization has not been entirely beneficial due conflicting military-political agenda, an underestimated negative impact on Western domestic economies (primarily through loss of blue collar work) and an increasing push for a greener society.
The proof is in the fact that all major Western governments (UK, EU, US, Canada, Aus) have taken measures to support domestic/allied production.
Case in point - all the above have a policy on critical minerals that serve to exclude/diversify from China as a source, despite it being the world's largest supplier, as China has previously restricted the supply of critical minerals for political leverage.
Better yet, the COVID pandemic has laid bare just how dependent manufacturing in the Western world is on China. The early 2020s saw surgical masks disappear, late 2021 saw the computer chip crunch (manufacturers dependent on Taiwan), and now in early 2022 we've seen the price of oil spike thanks to the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

In summary, the world is shifting towards resource nationalism/"regionalism". Globalisation can work, in theory, but the reality that governments are waking up to is that friction will continue to exist into the indefinite future, which will only serve to jeopardise the supply of goods critical to the function of their domestic economies. The natural response is to secure the supply, either via allies or domestic production.

I think corporations, governments and academia have underestimated and in fact sneered and looked down on ethnicity as a primitive historical artefact that could be replaced by non-descript faceless masses of pure consumers to exploit.

divs4ever · 21 April 2022

3 hound said:
I think corporations, governments and academia have underestimated and in fact sneered and looked down on ethnicity as a primitive historical artefact that could be replaced by non-descript faceless masses of pure consumers to exploit.

sadly , i agree ( in many cases )

on the positive side , quality businesses can be winners here , presenting genuine win/win situations ( to the company and the nation with the resources , not just a select few in power )

although history has favoured the corrupt , with their well-tested methods .

will we seem a long term trend for the better

divs4ever · 21 April 2022

greggles said:
The boom in commodities that we are currently experiencing has caused many developing nations to take a good look at who has ownership and control of critical mineral reserves in their country. The realisation that foreign companies are exploiting and profiting from their natural resources has led to a rise in resource nationalism, especially in Latin America.

Mexico is taking steps towards nationalising their lithium reserves, copper mines are shutting down in Peru, Bolivia has made lithium a state monopoly and Chile is planning to set up a state-owned lithium company.

Short term, this could definitely have an impact on supply. Long term, well that's anyone's guess but I don't think this phenomenon is going away anytime soon. In times of crisis and global turmoil nationalism always sees an increase as people cling ever tighter to their own tribe.

mining efficiently takes skills and some infrastructure ( in many cases ) , developing nations could do much to help themselves with well thought out partnerships ( or they could bring in contractors and include some sort of skills enhancement for the local workers )

3 hound · 21 April 2022

divs4ever said:
mining efficiently takes skills and some infrastructure ( in many cases ) , developing nations could do much to help themselves with well thought out partnerships ( or they could bring in contractors and include some sort of skills enhancement for the local workers )

I think history has shown that developing nations get sold out by their own leaders that are too willing to except terms that enrich themselves at the expense of the population and the environment.

divs4ever · 21 April 2022

again , sadly true ( or resolute leaders suffer an 'unfortunate accident ' )

but somewhere deep inside is still a hint of optimism

greggles · 22 April 2022

It's only a matter of time until African countries take the same course that Latin American countries are taking. I think that ASX-listed explorers with sizable projects in South America or Africa are at risk should the government of the relevant country decide to nationalise some or all of their mineral reserves.

Too much geopolitical instability at the moment and no sign of it ending anytime soon.

Resource nationalism and the metals crunch

In March miners were told they need to spend $100 billion on new mines to counter a supply shortage likely to be around 4.7 Mt by 2030.

www.miningreview.com

divs4ever · 22 April 2022

the Chinese MIGHT be smarter in their efforts to develop African resources , but time will tell

greggles · 22 April 2022

divs4ever said:
the Chinese MIGHT be smarter in their efforts to develop African resources , but time will tell

The Chinese are knee deep in cobalt in the DRC, with 15 of the 17 cobalt operations in the country controlled by Chinese interests, but the controversial infrastructure-for-minerals deal is becoming increasingly unpopular with the Chinese failing to uphold their end of the bargain.

The Chinese may in fact hasten resource nationalism in Africa with their self serving deals in places like the DRC.

3 hound · 22 April 2022

divs4ever said:
the Chinese MIGHT be smarter in their efforts to develop African resources , but time will tell

I think the Chinese are smarter (and work harder) with just about everything.

I went to Uni in the late 80's early 90's and Chinese students were here on special scholarships awarded to develop students from third world countries.

Fast forward and Chinese run and fund those same labs and Chinese students in general are now the most treasured cash cows keeping our bloated tertiary sector viable.

One generation: third world country to world superpower that is the only real threat to US economic dominance.

divs4ever · 22 April 2022

3 hound said:
I think the Chinese are smarter (and work harder) with just about everything.

I went to Uni in the late 80's early 90's and Chinese students were here on special scholarships awarded to develop students from third world countries.

Fast forward and Chinese run and fund those same labs and Chinese students in general are now the most treasured cash cows keeping our bloated tertiary sector viable.

One generation: third world country to world superpower that is the only real threat to US economic dominance.

i think so as well , but have been highly impressed by other migrants i have worked with , the Chinese might not have that game to themselves , don't underestimate Indians , Vietnamese and some South Sea Islanders have their own style of being rather productive to name a few , they are liable to be the next generation ' Chinese ' unless we fall into global Communism ( in which case minimal productivity will be our fate )

3 hound · 22 April 2022

divs4ever said:
i think so as well , but have been highly impressed by other migrants i have worked with , the Chinese might not have that game to themselves , don't underestimate Indians , Vietnamese and some South Sea Islanders have their own style of being rather productive to name a few , they are liable to be the next generation ' Chinese ' unless we fall into global Communism ( in which case minimal productivity will be our fate )

Indians are off the scale in smarts when it comes to electronics and software, I just think India has been held back because it is a collection of very different people's with many clashing cultures and religions practices. India is on top for pure brains but China beats them because they are more united, homogeneous, disciplined and conformist/obedient to their national goals.

The European migrants in my own family were asked to come here to fill unskilled labour shortages in the worst jobs in the worst conditions. None could read or write in their own language let alone learn a new language.

They outworked and out produced the Anglo Aussies and built thriving safe communities and were absolutely hated it for it and treated like social scum.

The next generation became Australia's professional class and produced the leading doctors, dentists, lawyers, architects, engineers builders, merchants... and were hated even more than the first unskilled labour generation for it.

waterbottle · 28 June 2022

Bumping this thread to update it on current events.
Recently Aus and NZ were invited to attend a NATO summit to discuss how the West should "handle China".
G7 announces an $800 billion initiative imilar to the Belt & Road project.
Russia strengthens partnership with Brazil, confirms it will continue to deliver fertiliser. BRICS anyone?

qldfrog · 28 June 2022

It's happening:

China is building a yuan currency reserve to compete with the dollar and prop up other economies facing volatility

China is teaming up with Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile. Each country will contribute about $2.2 billion worth of yuan.

markets.businessinsider.com

Please note the mention of Chile copper lithium...
The woke left is exhuberant as the whole of latin america is falling to leftist governments, all with a somewhat justified ...hatred of the US.
China has a easy play ahead,wonder what will happen if they start a military base in cuba or Nicaragua .

3 hound · 28 June 2022

qldfrog said:
It's happening:

China is building a yuan currency reserve to compete with the dollar and prop up other economies facing volatility

China is teaming up with Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile. Each country will contribute about $2.2 billion worth of yuan.

markets.businessinsider.com

Please note the mention of Chile copper lithium...
The woke left is exhuberant as the whole of latin america is falling to leftist governments, all with a somewhat justified ...hatred of the US.
China has a easy play ahead,wonder what will happen if they start a military base in cuba or Nicaragua .

Every upper middle class white kid in the Western world with a useless arts degree and financially conservative parents is a leftists these days so I don't think China sees us as much more than a speed bump

divs4ever · 28 June 2022

waterbottle said:
Bumping this thread to update it on current events.
Recently Aus and NZ were invited to attend a NATO summit to discuss how the West should "handle China".
G7 announces an $800 billion initiative imilar to the Belt & Road project.
Russia strengthens partnership with Brazil, confirms it will continue to deliver fertiliser. BRICS anyone?

BRICS ?? might be a couple of extra partners by the time it gets going fully

yes i think NATO is trying to call the initiative as 'Blue Pacific ' i wonder if the US is going to deliver all those war-toys we have contracted to buy so we have a tiny chance if we attack China

of course Russia might have de-militarized NATO by then , we might have to make our own weapons again ( like we did in WW2 ) when trying to resist Japan

divs4ever · 28 June 2022

3 hound said:
Every upper middle class white kid in the Western world with a useless arts degree and financially conservative parents is a leftists these days so I don't think China sees us as much more than a speed bump

the bigger danger is being seen as an untrustworthy trading partner ( there are developing nations with similar resources to ours ) ( we are SCREWED if we have to rely on trading with the EU basket-case )

3 hound · 28 June 2022

divs4ever said:
the bigger danger is being seen as an untrustworthy trading partner ( there are developing nations with similar resources to ours ) ( we are SCREWED if we have to rely on trading with the EU basket-case )

No EU, no EU basket case.

divs4ever · 28 June 2022

3 hound said:
No EU, no EU basket case.

but where will they find capable regional administrators , we have certainly discovered the easily distracted , and the incompetent

Resource nationalism

greggles

I'll be back!

waterbottle

3 hound

divs4ever

divs4ever

3 hound

divs4ever

greggles

I'll be back!

Resource nationalism and the metals crunch

divs4ever

greggles

I'll be back!

3 hound

divs4ever

3 hound

waterbottle

qldfrog

China is building a yuan currency reserve to compete with the dollar and prop up other economies facing volatility

3 hound

China is building a yuan currency reserve to compete with the dollar and prop up other economies facing volatility

divs4ever

divs4ever

3 hound

divs4ever

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