this heady optimism is worrying.
what has changed in the last week? NOTHING
see you all at 2500
EDIT:
PS heard a great statistic last night. In the US it now takes 5USD of debt to create 1USD of GDP. The most expensive ever.
Man you gotta be watching CNBC and Bloomberg these last few nights during the NYSE.
Propaganda coming thick and fast.
Bernanke even traded his crystal ball in on 1y warranty for one that works, and now thinks we will be sweet before NYE.
EDIT:
PS heard a great statistic last night. In the US it now takes 5USD of debt to create 1USD of GDP. The most expensive ever.
Largesse, with the market always looking ahead into the future, the question is not always what has happened in the last week, but what are people anticipating in the future.
If the market was dictated by what happened over the last week, we would all own billions.
There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.
After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.
The question is, who is forcing the market up. Surely it is not your average mum and dad investor, as they are too scared to invest. If it is simply traders forcing the market up, they are just shooting themselves in the foot, as it appears the majority of people arn't buying it. The more I think of it, the more I have a sneaking suspicion that this is not just a rally, established by people trying to take a quick profit.
Man you gotta be watching CNBC and Bloomberg these last few nights during the NYSE.
Propaganda coming thick and fast.
Bernanke even traded his crystal ball in on 1y warranty for one that works, and now thinks we will be sweet before NYE.
EDIT:
PS heard a great statistic last night. In the US it now takes 5USD of debt to create 1USD of GDP. The most expensive ever.
There more I think about it, the more I think that this may not neccissarily be a dead cat bounce.
After reading this thread, it would appear that 75% of the people that have commented, view this as a DCB as opposed to a recovery. If the majority of people are expecting this to be a dead cat bounce, then why is the market continuing to move upwards sharply.
I would imagine that those who have panicked previously and sold, are too scared to put there toe back in the water just yet, and with the majority thinking that it is just a dead cat bounce, there wouldnt be too many others rushing to get in their.
The question is, who is forcing the market up. Surely it is not your average mum and dad investor, as they are too scared to invest. If it is simply traders forcing the market up, they are just shooting themselves in the foot, as it appears the majority of people arn't buying it. The more I think of it, the more I have a sneaking suspicion that this is not just a rally, established by people trying to take a quick profit.
I think the 'rally' has just about run it's course, mainly due to a huge swath of bad US fundamentals about to land which will likely set off stage 2 of the bear market to new lows.
The sub prime market is entering a new wave of resets from April onwards into 2010.
The new home construction data is a statistical anomaly that most likely will be revised down again, but in any event it will only worsen the current glut of housing that nobody wants or can afford anyway.
Unemployment still parabolic negative.
Foreign holders of US debt net sellers now.
Options expiry week, short covering, all over by Friday?
The flight out of quality has begun, the markets are behind the curve this time, sell into the rally?
Sucking the last bit of capital out of the bulls left with cash.
Then, Australia will have a real recession instead of this Rudd recession.
Other than that I'm quit bullish
Credit Suisse has released a note on bear market rallys today. Apparently the average rally during the 1929-1933 bear market was 30%. So far, the average rally in this bear market is 14%. We're up about 12% so far this time, so we may be due some larger bounces either this time or in the near future.
I'm waiting for Cramer to come out with another 'BUY! BUY! BUY!/ THE REBOUND IS HERE' call.
And when he does, i will max my account shorting the **** out of everything i can get my hands on (except gold)
As high as the market wants it to. My guess is it's all the investors that have been out the market and now itching to get back in, based on all false hope in the US.
Interesting times indeed. In 1929 the Dow dropped from 51% before rising 48%. It than proceeded to drop another 86% for a total drop of 89% (381 to 42).
Of course times have changed and I mention the above only as a warning. I think this could be a recovery and I don't have a great answer for Pythagerous.
The main problem is that it does not seem enough toxic debt has been bought to account and when the next big fish drops or needs govt assistance market sentiment will change, surely not everyone insured with AIG.
UBS: Hedge Funds Back To Buying Stock
March 20, 2009
It’s been a long time coming, but hedge funds are betting on stocks once more.
For the first time since October, U.S. hedge funds clients of UBS were net purchasers of equities, according to a report from the bank’s chief equity strategist, David Bianco. In the four weeks through March 13, hedge funds averaged $140 million in net purchases of stock.
The most popular sectors for the new stock inflows were healthcare, consumer and industrial companies. Hedge funds have still not sweetened on financials or energy companies.
The move back into stocks comes as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which hit a 12-year-low on March 9, began something of a rebound. As usual, hedge funds are somewhat ahead of the curve””if, indeed, the market rebound is for real””as most other investors remained net sellers of stock, according to UBS.
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