Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[Gundini]

To GG;s credit he got the bottom for SUN spot on...in the SUN thread somewhere, if memory serves.

In his own words. "you can train a monkey to do that".... sorry GG could not resist!

 

[nunthewiser]

lol, how long have you been questioning this rally now? Hope you haven't been out of it, that would be painful.

How are some of your calls going?

BHP - $13.00, MQG - Under $1.00 (That is not a typo)

You would have been an excellent contrarian indicator

um at least he game to make a few calls ........ you got any ?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

lol, how long have you been questioning this rally now? Hope you haven't been out of it, that would be painful.

How are some of your calls going?

BHP - $13.00, MQG - Under $1.00 (That is not a typo)

You would have been an excellent contrarian indicator

Believe me I have been buying BHP at $13 regularly over the last 20 years and will do so again.

MQG is an accident waiting to happen.

gg

 

[MrBurns]

Believe me I have been buying BHP at $13 regularly over the last 20 years and will do so again.

gg

So you predict they will fall to $13 again ?

I better withdraw the offer I made on a unit in Port Douglas today and conserve my cash.

 

[MrBurns]

From my experience Macquaries lending practices were , and I presume still are, reckless.

 

[Real1ty]

um at least he game to make a few calls ........ you got any ?

You asked me in the chat room a couple of months ago my prediction and i explained i just follow the herd, don't have to be smart just a sheep, but my best "guess" was we go higher.

I stated on the other thread, think it is the XAO one, that i am starting to think it will be virtually a V recovery but with some expected dips along the way but we should grind higher. I was wrong as we have rocketed higher.

You sound like you think it is an admirable quality to make consistently incorrect calls.

 

[nunthewiser]

You asked me in the chat room a couple of months ago my prediction and i explained i just follow the herd, don't have to be smart just a sheep, but my best "guess" was we go higher.

I stated on the other thread, think it is the XAO one, that i am starting to think it will be virtually a V recovery but with some expected dips along the way but we should grind higher. I was wrong as we have rocketed higher.

You sound like you think it is an admirable quality to make constant incorrect calls.

thanks for the reply and yes i recall our conversation

no i do not regard it as admirable but i do enjoy ppl,s calls and views regardless of being right or wrong ...... GG made calls with his opinions at the time and i seem to notice you like to jump on his posts a fair bit regarding them ..im not here to defend GG as he big enough and ugly enough to talk his own talk but i am here defending others that DO make calls regardless of outcome as if they were to be attacked for every call they made , then maybe we wont get any more .

cheers and by the way nice call from chat

 

[Real1ty]

thanks for the reply and yes i recall our conversation

no i do not regard it as admirable but i do enjoy ppl,s calls and views regardless of being right or wrong ...... GG made calls with his opinions at the time and i seem to notice you like to jump on his posts a fair bit regarding them ..im not here to defend GG as he big enough and ugly enough to talk his own talk but i am here defending others that DO make calls regardless of outcome as if they were to be attacked for every call they made , then maybe we wont get any more .

cheers and by the way nice call from chat

That's fair enough and point taken but we all see things differently, which was what makes forums and the world an interesting place.

Those calls are also taken into account by inexperienced traders or those teetering on the edge of making an investment one way or the other.

Sure people shouldn't listen to a faceless person on the net but people do lots of things they shouldn't do

GG isn't shy stating his opinion on many many subjects all over ASF and by doing so he is opening himself to others opinions and we all have different ways of expressing our opinions.

You will also notice his calls don't come with waivers or caveats usually, they are virtually statements of facts, facts that turn out to be wrong most of the time.

Not sure attacks is an apt description more so a reminder of previous poor calls.

As for the chat call, as i said, just an educated guess more than anything based on common sense. I have heaps of them but keep most of them to myself but of course we are not all the same.

Cheers

 

[Muschu]

Believe me I have been buying BHP at $13 regularly over the last 20 years and will do so again.

MQG is an accident waiting to happen.

gg

Sorry but that seems a very defensive response re BHP. Does it answer the question or perhaps it is more likely, to be fair, that your answer can be justified with elaboration?
Regards
Rick

 

[Tukker]

Interesting interview on yahoo news today.

World at risk of 'double dip recession'
Friday August 7, 2009, 7:49 pm

A senior OECD official says the global financial crisis is far from over and the world faces a serious risk of another credit crunch and a double dip recession.

Adrian Blundell-Wignall is the deputy director of financial and enterprise affairs at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

In an interview with ABC Radio's PM two years ago, Dr Blundell-Wignall warned there was a giant rolling bubble of excess liquidity moving from market to market, inflating asset prices.

He warned unless the problems causing it were addressed, it would eventually burst with devastating consequences. And it did.

Now Dr Blundell-Wignall - who stresses these are his personal views and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD member states - says the lessons of history are clear.

First, guarantee bank deposits and funding. Second, remove the toxic assets from the banks. Three, recapitalise the banks. But he says the world has ignored step two.

"Did we remove the toxic assets from the balance sheet of the banking system, anywhere? No, nowhere," he told ABC Radio's PM program tonight.

Instead, he says, governments and regulators have conspired in the use of a magicians' sleight of hand to hide the toxic mess.

Changing the rules

He says for example, the United States changed the accounting rules so banks no longer had to state the current market value of the toxic assets and no longer had to declare losses.

"If you can change the accounting rules and say, 'hang on, we don't have to declare any losses on this $700 billion, $800 billion, we can now declare that they're all book value'," Dr Blundell-Wignall said.

"So, it's really there and all those losses are going to be there but we don't have to declare it, and we won't have to raise any capital for it; it'll kind of be there just hidden behind the silk screen."

Dr Blundell-Wignall says the toll of bad loans is going to get worse, because claims of a US housing recovery are a false dawn.

"Every time the unemployment rate goes up when someone losses their job, they can't pay; obviously you can't; that's one of the biggest determinates of people having to default on their loans, and house prices being the other one," he said.

"It seems to me like there's still downward pressure there and we know the unemployment rate's going to lag the US by 12 to 18 months, so we know it's going to keep going up.

"So, bad loans are going to continue to happen; that's the credit crunch aspect."..... he goes on to say bailouts are unsustainable and good luck to us all to avoid another crash.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090807/31/27vni.html

I was thinking something along these lines as well, so far there hasn't been any great fundamental news from the macro perspective about the recovery (apart from the share price movements of late). Im scared that we are in for a rough second half of the year.

I know the world is expected to rely less on the US for its trend, but that hasn't happened yet. We still seem to have a down day when the US has a down day, an up when they do.

Im usually an optimist, but this interview has put a wrench in my works.

Any comments?

 

[stow254]

This recent dead cat bounce will die eventually. It's only a matter of time

 

[nomore4s]

This recent dead cat bounce will die eventually. It's only a matter of time

lol, not sure you can call it a dead cat bounce now.

 

[sammy84]

This recent dead cat bounce will die eventually. It's only a matter of time

Haha, profound words. It will die eventually. Good luck making money on that knowledge

 

[Buckeroo]

Interesting interview on yahoo news today.

I was thinking something along these lines as well, so far there hasn't been any great fundamental news from the macro perspective about the recovery (apart from the share price movements of late). Im scared that we are in for a rough second half of the year.

I know the world is expected to rely less on the US for its trend, but that hasn't happened yet. We still seem to have a down day when the US has a down day, an up when they do.

Im usually an optimist, but this interview has put a wrench in my works.

Any comments?

There's a general stampede on the markets for no other reason but positive talk.

If reality, its a mess:
You have major companies diluting their shares through rights issues & then the share price rises?

You have 1/2 million more unemployed last month in the US & they all saying its good news for the economy?

You have signs in China of a bubble due to the extensive stimulus package & this is OK because its fueling the world recovery?

Our own property market has created its own sub prime situation & everyone's cheering because house prices are climbing?

We are in a period of mass delusion hoping that the stimulus packages will save us. Best anyone can do is to prepare for the worse & also try to make some money from the herd.

Cheers

 

[Wysiwyg]

The public relations machine cranks up as the big hooly buys in and bingo, optimism replaces pessimism.

Momentum, trading with the trend (joining the herd), sentiment, lies, propaganda, exaggeration, doctored numbers.

The stock market. Unreal.

 

[Bafana]

Listening to BBC world report last night and they were commentating on the latest good results from Germany. Was interested when the analyst basically said this is most likely going to be a double dip recession with the second round nastier than the last one. My gut feeling is this maybe well be trouble.

Does a double dip count as a dead cat bounce?

When does everyone think the next dip will hit...

 

[cutz]

When does everyone think the next dip will hit...

Based on gut feeling alone the leg down has already started.

 

[michael_selway]

Listening to BBC world report last night and they were commentating on the latest good results from Germany. Was interested when the analyst basically said this is most likely going to be a double dip recession with the second round nastier than the last one. My gut feeling is this maybe well be trouble.

Does a double dip count as a dead cat bounce?

When does everyone think the next dip will hit...

Well if you are looking at long term downtrend, i think it might be a few years away, so alot of upside till then

The main reason is the GDP growth still happenng in China & India (that's helping the world, Australia teh most), until that moderates to 1-2% pa (currently its 8%) then the bear will start

Thx

MS

 

[trainspotter]

What does 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001 and 2007 all have in common?
What does Japan in 1991 have in common with the U.S. in 2007?
What have we learned from these experiences?

 

[knocker]

Listening to BBC world report last night and they were commentating on the latest good results from Germany. Was interested when the analyst basically said this is most likely going to be a double dip recession with the second round nastier than the last one. My gut feeling is this maybe well be trouble.

Does a double dip count as a dead cat bounce?

When does everyone think the next dip will hit...

Next month. Good luck