Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

I'm only here, like you, for discussion. If someone disagrees with you on something does that immediately indicate they think they are "gurus"? Grow up.

I may be wrong I may be right. If I'm wrong of course tell me and I'll try to argue/discuss my point.

Abcguy said:

I dare you to read ANY book about Warren Buffett and his investment philosophies and you will realise just how unprofitable and stupid day trading is.

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Far out...

How many false presumptions and assumptions can a person pack into one sentence?

Let's see:

1) I haven't read any book about Buffet
2) Buffet's style is the only way to make money from shares
3) Because Buffet doesn't day trade, all day trading is stupid and unprofitable
4) Buffet is the only successful investor worth emulating
5) Reading any book about Buffet is sufficient to cause a person to change their mind about their own successful trading style(s)
6) Day traders need to be convinced to give it up


...and that was without trying. By the way, wrong on all counts so far.

Care to try again?

Your wrong
Take TH for example
He's a day trader

Tell me how many investors can turn $1000 to $20,000 in one day
Or what about $1000 to $50,000 in one week

Week in
Week out

Not just following the index

IMO investors have no "edge"
They just follow the index up & down
Maybe get lucky if they buy a few penny stocks

Day traders are limited by equity
They can't swing 1m trades in and out every 20 seconds
They'll move the market too much
That's why you don't see day traders with exponential returns
Some day traders will take his profits at the end of the day and start again with a small amount the next day. They don't need to compound

I don't know many investors who can return the % figures day traders can

& where do day traders put their profits each day?
Some put it into some cheap shares and let it grow on the side
But they know that their main income will be from day trading

MS+Tradesim said:

Far out...

Care to try again?

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Don't encourage him MS

MS+Tradesim said:

Far out...

How many false presumptions and assumptions can a person pack into one sentence?

Let's see:

1) I haven't read any book about Buffet
2) Buffet's style is the only way to make money from shares
3) Because Buffet doesn't day trade, all day trading is stupid and unprofitable
4) Buffet is the only successful investor worth emulating
5) Reading any book about Buffet is sufficient to cause a person to change their mind about their own successful trading style(s)
6) Day traders need to be convinced to give it up


...and that was without trying. By the way, wrong on all counts so far.

Care to try again?

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OK I agree it was stupid to presume that person hasn't read any books on Buffett.

Number 2 was just an assumption by you. I never indicated this but was rather trying to say that the reasons most of the books give makes sense as to why day trading can be bad.

Number 3 is similar reasoning to number 2.

Number 5: Ok I'll admit 'unprofitable' was the wrong word to use. What I meant to say was less profitable.

Number 6 Not trying to convince anyone, just stating my opinion that I think day trading is a waste of time.

Anyways, I gotta get back to work. I wish I had your MSN's I wouldn't mind learning more from you all.

Abcguy said:

Anyways, I gotta get back to work. I wish I had your MSN's I wouldn't mind learning more from you all.

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warrenbuffet@poorhouse.com.au


there ya go m8

Real1ty said:

Don't encourage him MS

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Crikey. Can always count on entertainment here if the market isn't co-operative during the day.

*Nods at nun and mazza*....let's call it the Guru Oscillator.

Ps.

Abcguy, in your first post you stated your lack of knowledge and experience. Try asking questions rather than asserting uninformed opinions. Seriously. You'll discover there is a wealth of knowledge and experience on this forum to draw from. I think all of us with open minds have become better traders/investors through our interaction here.

Abcguy said:

Anyways, I gotta get back to work. I wish I had your MSN's I wouldn't mind learning more from you all.

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No please
May I have yours, I've much to learn about this intriguing "investing" concept
In seriousness, alot of people here are not stupid.
They would not waste their time on day trading if there was nothing to gain from it.

MS+Tradesim said:

*Nods at nun and mazza*....let's call it the Guru Oscillator.

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Guru Reversal Bar?

Abcguy said:

I am very new to stocks

My current job, as a full-time undergrad tax accountant, was the actual reason that I got interested in stocks. The reason behind this is because our clientele mainly consists of investors and of course by doing their tax returns,


Just around 3 weeks ago I made my first buy

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Abcguy said:

Number 6 Not trying to convince anyone, just stating my opinion that I think day trading is a waste of time.

Anyways, I gotta get back to work.

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LOL. I always thought working for someone else was closer to a waste of time. Especially depressing counting other peoples money

Anyway you better run along in case your boss cracks your back for wasting valuable billing hours, what is the rate again?? $30 an hour - 1 tick LOLOLOLOLOL

Trembling Hand said:

Anyway you better run along in case your boss cracks your back for wasting valuable billing hours, what is the rate again?? $30 an hour - 1 tick LOLOLOLOLOL

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Haha never thought about it like that
Working for 1 SPI tick per hour

Makes working a real job seem pathetic

How's your risk appetite - still hungry or still anorexic?

The Dyson money vacuum cleaner has had a few good weeks, thanks to the 'better than expected' rally. Pump it up, issue more shares, live for another qtr?

The fact remains that this is not a recession, it's not even a depression - it's the end of the fractional reserve banking system as we know it - a painful transition to something else, whatever that may be?. Forget about cycles, buying the lows, buy & hold - dead & finished for the average investor. Traders will retire early .

Money (cash) velocity is a big fat ZERO. Central banks have ZERO control now as the shadow system is far & away much bigger, although the GFC has reduced it by several TRILLIONS!

Lack of shorters - where have all the shorters gone? Prepare for them to open positions again in earnest when the DCB runs out of rhetorical 'green shoots'?

Bull market bunnies are gonna get fried - again.............

Those green shoots are already starting to wither.

Best opportunity to buy positions in hard assets (including commercial property)/commodities for an investment generation.

Uncle Festivus said:

The fact remains that this is not a recession, it's not even a depression - it's the end of the fractional reserve banking system as we know it - a painful transition to something else, whatever that may be?.

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You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then

Cheers,

Beej

Beej said:

You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then

Cheers,

Beej

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"The RUDD recession" lol

Beej said:

You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then

Cheers,

Beej

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You can chalk me up also, I stand with Uncle. The rate of money printing against nothing but debt continues unabated in the US and the UK. We have the Wiemer Republic doing a late spread.

The value in money (paper) is doomed unless there is a huge about turn to put some actual physical production back in to GDP.

Naaar, just give em some more credit (oh and some handouts too)and they can spend thier way out. The garbage out of the pollies is spilling over.

Warren Buffett doesn't even day trade, so I don't see how one could use Warren Buffett to prove day trading is stupid.

On the other hand, I know many people think they invest like Warren Buffett. But interestingly, with so many books written about value investing, there is still only one oracle today. Why is that?

I think the problem is not the tool or the method, but the user. Most people simply aren't very good, every profession is the same.

CanOz said:

You want details on how Berk Hath is doing vs Soros's endowment fund in 2008?

CanOZ

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Actually, I believe this line should not only be applied to 2008. As far as I am aware, Soros Quantum Funds have returned higher than Buffett over a 30 year period by nearly 10% annually, incredible.

Beej said:

You state the above as a FACT? That's a bold call. We'll just highlight it here for future posterity and visit back in a year or two and see how your stated "fact" stands up then

Cheers,

Beej

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Well I hope I am wrong, but humans being humans then the easy way out will be taken, only delaying the hard actions which should be taken now eg Rudd, Brown etc?

I guess what my underlying point is that don't think things are normal any more as we are in uncharted waters, even for the people to whom the world entrusts to save us/them.

Bernanke himself has said that he doesn't know the end result of what the Fed & Treasury are doing now because it's never been done before, and also the fact that central banks don't have the capacity to even measure the shadow economy to gauge the effectiveness of the stimulii - they may overshoot or undershoot with equal unknown effect?

My understanding is that in it's simplest from, fractional reserve banking relies on the hope that not all depositors will want their money back, all at the same time. What's happened now is that what has been lent from this leveraged system has then been leveraged yet again several times over ie the shadow banking system if you will, but the returns to repay this leverage have literally vanished overnight, leaving the debtors not being able to repay interest, let alone principle, that is if they can even get a commercial loan on attractive terms - the credit/money velocity is zero.

Cash is king - $2Trillion is nowhere near enough to compensate for what has been vaporised already in a deflationary recession that shows no signs of bottoming. When the data revisions are revised positively then we have at least a glimmer of some sort of base, but, nothing so far? Think outside the paradigms?

It's possible that the China boom (and any other boom ie property) is and has been based on nothing more than the extravagant largesse of excess credit, leverage and money supplies. Keep an eye on 5/10yr US bonds to see how popular QE is/not....

ABC 7.30 report on the Aus TV stations and debt problems is a classic example of what's going on here. Multiply this globally and you have the GFC. Great Southern 43,000 shareholders and Timbercorp's previous shareholders won't be backing up the truck to partake in any new green shoots bullmarket any time soon. Bit by bit, soured investors will relinquish the appetite for risk and sit it out on the sidelines for a while?

Warren Buffet did mention that if there is a stock where he will put all his money in, it will be Well Fargo. It will be interest to see how things will pan out over the years seeing Well Fargo is one of the 18 banks require capital raising with the latest government "stress test" result. (which is obviously, not no where near stressful enough)