How much money is to be made before that happens though?
Already we have seen some great opportunities while the bears keep calling for a crash and a new bottom. Even if we do head straight down from here if you have managed your risks and trades well you should have done very well out of this rally.
i still believe that we will venture to new overall lows but not gunna sit around with my finger up my bum
i for one am glad you have relinquished this habit Nun, and put your efforts into more rewarding spiritual passtimes lol ---- :eek3:
Its gonna be some crash in a few months when more figures come out and the punters realise what they thought was correct but got sucked in.
but who says some of the bears havent ? i still believe that we will venture to new overall lows but not gunna sit around with my finger up my bum waiting for it
trade whats been presented and boy this rally sure has been a doozy
You have to see it realistically.
Signed realistically...lol
What is going to be the catalyst, the panic to cause redemptions and people dropping shares again like they did last Novemeber.
If its going to drop it will drop in may. Looking back through the charts, the good old rule of sell in May and run away applies.
2003, 2004, 2005(started early) 2006, 2007(went sideways through May then down), 2008(bears dream) all were followed (or already falling) during or very close to may. So the probabilities of a decent fall seem within reason (mid May?)
Dhukka,
What's your view on possible Asian economic bottoming/stabilisation/recovery over the next 6mths?
Thanks in advance.
Sorry, not much help.
Myare that the global recovery will be lead by Asia but I don't have the fundamental acumen to quantify that. Just the beliefs that USA has pretty much had its day and China will be leading the next growth stage. I do understand that the US is still the largest consumer but I think the next decade will be a major transitional period.
The realisation that the practices of private individuals & investment banks going into debt to speculate with leverage is now being taken up by central banks around the globe?
So we have the situation of the indebted individuals and loose money shuffling banks being joined in indebtedness by ever expanding big government.
When the penny finally drops and people start to see government expediture severely cut back and rates & tax's start to rise to pay for it all, the second wave will already have commenced. Just not sure when the markets forward looking optimism will turn into present looking reality? There's a lot of [size=+1]goodwill[/size] & [size=+1]rhetoric[/size] and not much more driving this rally?
Remember that 2 weeks have past since we last saw the xjo at this level. It's not driving higher it's being reluctantly pulled higher by the manipulated US markets?
KRudd is a supreme populist, and will massage our minds dailly through populist policy mass-media press releases. The Coalition need a complete re-invention or KRudd will be in power for generations...
I'll just ride this craziness out till my time on Earth is done.
Interested to hear what everyone's thoughts are on the last few days of positive trading in the market.
Could this be signs of recovery, or is it simply a rally following Citi's news?
Part of me thinks that this could be signs of recovery, for a couple of reasons.
A) The majority are expecting it to just be a rally, so most investors are treating it with caution.
B) No one expects a recovery to come this early, yet recoveries always come earlier then expected. If they didnt, then everyone would get in at the bottom of the market.
C) Yes unemployment is rising, however the market generally starts to recover before unemployment hits its peak.
D) Australian Business have started to streamline their businesses, much before they came desperate like in the U.S. So by taking cautionary measures, they are going to be in a better position.
E) Interest rates are likely to fall. Combine this with the fact that businesses are becoming more streamlined, there will become a point where companies appear more profitable then low bank interest.
G) Consumers have really tightened their belt in the last 12 months and with lower interest rates, they surely have to becoming more comfortable and confident in their own financial situations.
H) The outlook for the market is bleak, but this has been factored in already.
I) The chances are, that the majority of the investors who sell on a panic, have already fled the market. Any investors that have remained in the market for the past 12 months, have probably come too far to turn back, and are prepared to stick it out, so we are unlikely to see another level of high volume panic selling.
These are just my personal views, and I must admit I am not a financial adviser or scientist for that matter. I do not know the score of pie, and all I am running on is a Tafe Certificate IV in team leadership.
In saying that, I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on my views.
My advice - just watch the 20 day MA. I'll be getting worried if the XAO falls below it for more than a couple of trade days. musicman
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