Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

nomore4s · 2 April 2009

MrBurns said:
As soon as I get my money back from the latest Charlie Aitken dodgy tip, ie BSL I 'm out and staying out, only about a grand down at present from Friday.

Can I ask what signs you will be looking for before re-entering the market?

History shows us the stock market tends to bottom out when least expected - while the economic news is still bad and things look like they cannot possibly get better. This is why picking bottoms is so difficult and so few people manage to get in on the ground floor.

Tech posted on another thread a while ago about there being so few people who can actually identify opportunity and then make the most of that opportunity when it is identified. These last few months have shown me why that is true.

Just because I have been buying for the last few months doesn't mean I have to hold if the market starts to seriously tank again. To me the risks of buying now are a lot less then buying 12 - 18 months ago.

MrBurns · 2 April 2009

nomore4s said:
Can I ask what signs you will be looking for before re-entering the market?

I'm not a trader, it just seems like gambling to me.

I wont go back into the share market till I'm sure the companies I'm buying into are not going to go downhill and by that I dont count any company in that category at present, banks, miners, you name it there's a question mark over all of them.

I dont know shares but I do know property and I know that eventually it goes up depite bumps and problems over time, shares however do not always go up, the index might but some companies just disappear altogether with investors money so I'll stay out and go back into property once it settles in about 2 years.

tedwilliams · 2 April 2009

Mr Burns,
Trading on the stockmarket is not gambling. Gambling is standing at poker machine, the programs runs the odds for you-you lose.
Horse racing, always been rigged, always will be. Greyhounds-rigged sometimes, dogs get stichs from owners feeding water before a race.
Football, is rigged the amount of tanking that goes on. How can you make money, when you are up against the odds at the start, plus they are rigged.
Casinos rigged in a way, table limits stop you from making enough money to pull out and go home, free drinks, no clocks, staff extra nice.

Stockmarket, media and company annoucements, why do not the stupid companies make the annoucements after trading, not when a stock is rising?

It seems to me, the world has to be rigged in a way, you take car makers, they will not make cars theft proof, because the insurance companies will not make any money from it. Same with stupid tumble locks, on houses, easy to pick. Same again-Insurance companies have to make people scared of losing their cars, houses burgarled.

I have lost money trading shares in the past, paying $33.00 a share trade, what a joke. Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars. Brokerage is 0.1 percent of trade.

Regards Ted

Green08 · 2 April 2009

roll of the dice betting against others greed

Aussiest · 2 April 2009

tedwilliams said:
Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars.
Regards Ted

And, what will you do when the difference between your entry price and the current price exceeds your margin and you are asked to top up your account?

MrBurns · 2 April 2009

Stock markets are manipulated and the companies you put your hard earned money into are in many cases dishonest or run by people who are prepared to be dishonest, if that's not a gamble I don't know what is.

Green08 · 2 April 2009

when I see this bouncing I can only think of the poor souls pouring their stimulus money in - following "experts advice" only to learn that without watching it - shazzam the next lot of bankrupt :sheep: hit the pavement

MrBurns · 2 April 2009

Ok I'm out - Sold 5,000 BSL @ $2.70 for a loss of about $500 ...cest' la vie

SOOooooooooooo my advice is to buy BSL immediately because tomorrow they will go through the roof.

As Buffett always says when Burns is selling buy in a hurry...........

nomore4s · 2 April 2009

tedwilliams said:
I have lost money trading shares in the past, paying $33.00 a share trade, what a joke. Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars. Brokerage is 0.1 percent of trade.

lol, what planet are you on. So trading CFDs with 80-90% leverage isn't gambling?

Beej · 2 April 2009

Green08 said:
when I see this bouncing I can only think of the poor souls pouring their stimulus money in - following "experts advice" only to learn that without watching it - shazzam the next lot of bankrupt :sheep: hit the pavement

A bit alarmist perhaps??

How could anyone go bankrupt by investing money that they have just been given (ie bonus cash) in the share market? Unless they were using it with leverage, the absolute worse that could happen is they loose the stimulus/bonus money (if poor companies that go under are chosen) - but that would hardly send anyone bankrupt on it's own???

Cheers,

Beej

saiter · 2 April 2009

Well, the Dow Jones already hit 1997 levels at the start of this rally... Isn't that enough already? Didn't all this leveraging start after 2000?

Also, if the Dow Jones leads the rest, how come the XAO, FTSE and HSI only hit mid-2003 levels?

drsmith · 2 April 2009

I still think it's too early to be dancing in the street singing happy days are here again but at the same time who knows how far the current reversal will run.

With regard to the banks in particular it was 1992 before WBC and ANZ admitted to all their sins post the 1987 share market crash/subsequent recession.

Green08 · 2 April 2009

Supers heading south - big player in the medical area. Indication of others?

Investment Option 1 July 2008 to 28 February 2009 ( p.a.)

Ready-Made Investment Choice
Core Pool -15.7%
Shares Plus -21.9%
Cash Plus -7.9%
Eco Pool -16.2%
Overseas Share Pool -23.1%
Australian Share Pool -30.6%

Desperate people do desperate things without always looking clearly first. Never understood the negative in Cash

Uncle Festivus · 2 April 2009

I've seen the term 'the market is forward looking' bandied about a few threads lately, usually in the context of why the markets are going up again. Markets are not forward looking at all, all they are is 'forward expecting while discounting current negatives'. You only have to look at the reaction to the latest data -

Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. on Wednesday posted March U.S. vehicle sales declines in excess of 40%

The U.S. labor market worsened again in March, as private-sector firms cut 742,000 jobs, signaling another terrible employment report on Friday

the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index came in at 36.3 for April - up from 35.8 - 0.5 points!

A second half recovery? The Bull beckons you in one last time for the final capitulation to the real lows?

Playing the game but only to get set for some juicy shorts again, if they don't change the rules again!

MR. · 2 April 2009

MrBurns said:
Ok I'm out - Sold 5,000 BSL @ $2.70 for a loss of about $500 ...cest' la vie

SOOooooooooooo my advice is to buy BSL immediately because tomorrow they will go through the roof.

Thanks for the tip it's going to be a sure thingy now! just up 9%

It appears it's out of your system now, back to being bored ?

Bought a particular share yesterday, yes, on that optimism.......
I calculated a particular directors total cost of holdings over a 7 year period, the money he put in out of his pocket. You can get in today for his average cost. So I got in some. (and with other reasons in mind)

The share is down something like 80+% in 6 months and it still hasn't risen. Had invested in this company before so I knew alot about it. Spent half of yesterday and all day today ripping the more recent history apart. Didn't like what I found. Risk is just still too high even at this reduced price with the current economy in mind. Sold most today at a loss of $150-

It's out my system now as well.

It's straight out gambling...... when debts in these companies are involved.

MR. · 2 April 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
Playing the game but only to get set for some juicy shorts

That is the only thing that continues to make sense to me, unfortunately.

Will be glad when these feelings go!

Nero64 · 2 April 2009

wont go back into the share market till I'm sure the companies I'm buying into are not going to go downhill and by that I dont count any company in that category at present, banks, miners, you name it there's a question mark over all of them.

I dont know shares

Mr Burns it appears you don't know shares stick to property if you can't see any value on offer.

Do your research. I could name 10-15 companies strengthing in this down turn and reaping profits like never before. I admit everything was down in November because of redemptions and people selling at all costs. That was the time to buy not now and not in early March Most people missed it. NHC for example. It was down to $2.50. This company has 2 Billion in cash and is trading 80% below its true market cap.

I have lost money trading shares in the past, paying $33.00 a share trade, what a joke. Trade CFDS, you can buy $10000 in a company for a margin of $1000-2000 dollars. Brokerage is 0.1 percent of trade.

Regards Ted

Umm Ted. I would rather pay $33 per share transaction than pay $30-40 in buying and closing comissions, plus $4-5 in interest per over night holding plus what ever else they charge with CFD's.

So_Cynical · 2 April 2009

tedwilliams said:
Mr Burns,
Trading on the stockmarket is not gambling. Gambling is standing at poker machine, the programs runs the odds for you-you lose.
Horse racing, always been rigged, always will be. Greyhounds-rigged sometimes, dogs get stichs from owners feeding water before a race.
Football, is rigged the amount of tanking that goes on

So ted when u buy into XYZ u know its gona go up right?

Gambling is putting your money into something with an unpredictable
outcome, but wait u have a system right or a strategy. :bs:

U gambling deniers amaze me.

Gordon Gekko · 2 April 2009

Hey Burns,

I got a hot one for you!

Its a Canadian gold company called Bre-X

Its going to the moon!!

G

MRC & Co · 2 April 2009

Looks like we have put in a HL. Same as S&P.

Still looking for a move to 3800s before I will turn bearish.

I used to think trading was not gambling, but it obviously is. Of course, you can be an expert and beat the market, but you are never SURE and hence there is always an element of chance: to stake or risk money, or anything of value, on the outcome of something involving chance

Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

MrBurns

tedwilliams

Green08

Aussiest

MrBurns

Green08

MrBurns

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

Beej

saiter

drsmith

Green08

Uncle Festivus

MR.

MR.

Nero64

So_Cynical

The Contrarian Averager

Gordon Gekko

MRC & Co

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